Today I wanted to look at the 49ers 2023 salary cap situation, and figure out what they will do between now, & next offseason.
As of now, the 2023 salary cap is projected to be $225 million, so let’s look at the 49ers current 2023 salary cap situation.
As of now, the 49ers will have 45 players signed for 2023, for a total cap commitment of $189,451,009, along with $14,984,999 in dead money, for a total cap commitment of $204,436,008, leaving the 49ers $20,563,992 under that $225 million cap, but when you factor in enough players for the top 51 rule, it goes down to $16,063,992.
Now let’s look at those 45 players, and their 2023 cap numbers.
- LT Trent Williams(2026)- $26,270,000
- DT Arik Armstead(2024)- $24,346,000
- MLB Fred Warner(2026)- $18,525,000
- TE George Kittle(2025)- $18,383,000
- DE Nick Bosa(2023)- $17,869,000
- CB Charvarius Ward(2024)- $16,405,000
- QB Trey Lance(2024)- $9,301,434
- FB Kyle Juszycyzk(2025)- $6,588,750
- C Alex Mack(2023)- $5,075,000
- DT Javon Kinlaw(2023)- $4,928,223
- WR Brandon Aiyuk(2023)- $3,987,248
- MLB Oren Burks(2023)- $2,773,000
- WR/KR/PR Ray-Ray McCloud(2023)- $2,090,000
- LG Aaron Banks(2024)- $1,929,166
- SS George Odum(2024)- $1,840,000
- DE Drake Jackson(2025)- $1,339,180
- RB Trey Sermon(2024)- $1,328,982
- CB Ambry Thomas(2024)- $1,305,232
- RB Tyrion Davis-Price(2025)- $1,161,033
- WR Danny Gray(2025)- $1,146,569
- TE Charlie Woerner(2023)- $1,055,258
- RT Spencer Burford(2025)- $1,038,014
- RG Jaylon Moore(2024)- $1,020,759
- CB Deommodore Lenoir(2024)- $1,011,217
- SS Talanoa Hufanga(2024)- $1,000,038
- RB Elijah Mitchell(2024)- $985,893
- CB Samuel Womack(2025)- $940,831
- LG Nick Zakelj(2025)- $917,590
- NT Kalia Davis(2025)- $903,003
- CB Tariq Castro-Fields(2025)- $903,003
- QB Brock Purdy(2025)- $889,253
- WLB Jeremiah Gemmel(2024)- $876,666
- SS Leon O’Neal(2024)- $873,333
- C Dohnovan West(2024)- $873,333
- WLB Segun Olubi(2024)- $871,000
- WR Tay Martin(2024)- $870,000
- WR Taysir Mack(2024)- $870,000
- CB Tayler Hawkins(2024)- $870,000
- C Jason Poe(2024)- $870,000
- DT Kevin Atkins(2024)- $870,000
- LT Sam Schlueter(2024)- $870,000
- LB Marcelino McCrary-Ball(2024)- $870,000
- TE Garrett Walston(2024)- $870,000
- CB Qwuantrezz Knight(2024)- $870,000
- RB Jordan Mason(2024)- $870,000
Of course, the 49ers will have a good amount of free agents, with them listed below.
UFA:
QB Jimmy Garoppolo
QB Nate Sudfeld
RB Jeff Wilson Jr.
WR Deebo Samuel
WR Malik Turner
WR Marcus Johnson
TE Ross Dwelley
TE Tanner Hudson
TE Jordan Matthews
C Jake Brendel
RG Daniel Brunskill
RT Mike McGlinchey
RT Justin Skule
DE Charles Omenihu
DE Kerry Hyder Jr.
DE Kemoko Turay
DE Jordan Willis
DE Samson Ebukam
DE Dee Ford
DT Maurice Hurst Jr.
NT Hassan Ridgeway
WLB Dre Greenlaw
SLB Azeez Al-Shaair
CB Emmanuel Moseley
CB Dontae Johnson
CB Darqueze Dennard
FS Jimmie Ward
FS Tarvarius Moore
PK Robbie Gould
P Mitch Wishnowsky
LS Taybor Pepper
RFA:
RB JaMycal Hasty
WR KeeSean Johnson
LG Colton McKivitz
RG Keaton Sutherland
DT Kevin Givens
SLB Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles
CB Ka’dar Hollman
ERFA:
FB Josh Hokit
WR Jauan Jennings
WR Austin Mack
WR Connor Wedington
RT Alfredo Gutierrez
DE Alex Barrett
NT Chris Slayton
WLB Curtis Robinson
When I look at the teams’ free agents, first I look at the ERFAs, since they’re easy re-signings thanks to the league minimum tender, and because ERFAs can’t sign elsewhere, so the only player on the list that is guaranteed to be here in 2022 is wide receiver Jauan Jennings, who would get a 1-year, $940,000 tender, which would put the 49ers salary cap room at $19,623,992 with 46 players signed, and $15,873,992 with enough to get to the top 51 rule.
Also, we need to discuss wide receiver Deebo Samuel, & defensive end Nick Bosa, as both should be extended sometime this offseason, despite Deebo asking for a trade, as we’ve seen in the past with the likes of Robbie Gould wanting to go home to Chicago, but he re-signed with the 49ers, so that’s what I believe will happen with Deebo Samuel.
As for contract terms, the best guess for me is $25 million a year, $60 million in total guarantees, $42 million of it being fully guaranteed, with a low 2023 cap hit of around $8 million.
As for Bosa, I believe $32 million a year is fair, with $105 million in total guarantees, with $85 million in fully guaranteed money, with a lower 2023 cap hit of around $12 million, which would be a savings of $5.869 million from his current $17.869 million cap number for 2023.
So, if we add these numbers, the 49ers would have 47 players signed, with $17,492,992 in cap room, before the top 51 rule, $14,492,992 after the top 51 rule.
Now, as I have said before, the 49ers, when they let go of Jimmy Garoppolo will save just under $25 million, and in my most recent roster projection, I have the 49ers ending up with reserving $8 million for in season moves for 2022, & $11 million in potential carryover, which would boost the 49ers 2023 salary cap room to $28,492,992 with 47 players signed, and $25,492,992 with 51 players signed.
Now, of course most of the 49ers 2022 UDFA class won’t make the team, with centers Dohnovan West, & Jason Poe, linebacker Jeremiah Gemmel, & safety Leon O’Neal Jr. having the best shot at making the team in my opinion.
So, let’s assume that these 4 players make the team, thus being signed for 2023, while the other 10 are no longer being signed for 2023, which gives the team 37 players signed, including Jauan Jennings ERFA tender, & extensions for Deebo Samuel, & Nick Bosa, which leaves the 49ers with $26,191,992, before the potential $11 million in carryover, with just 37 players signed, and with enough players to get to the top 51 rule, they’d have $15,691,992, again before the potential $11 million in carryover.
If we add the $11 million to these numbers, we get, $37,191,992 with just 37 players signed, & $26,691,992 with 51 players signed.
When it comes to the teams’ UFAs to be, the 49ers would likely want to try to keep the likes of right guard Daniel Brunskill, right tackle Mike McGlinchey, defensive ends Samson Ebukam, & Kemoko Turay, weakside linebacker Dre Greenlaw, strongside linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair, cornerback Emmanuel Moseley, & free safety Jimmie Ward.
When it comes to Ward, they’d be best to try & extend him now, as he’s set to count $6.395 million in dead money for 2023, and by extending him this offseason, they 1. Would likely get his 2023 cap number to be in that $6.395 million range, and 2. They’d save $6.224 million in salary cap room.
The 49ers may have to decide between either Greenlaw or Al-Shaair, and with them drafting several offensive linemen, & cornerbacks in the past 2 drafts, they may deem it necessary to let McGlinchey, & Moseley walk, as both, if they play well in 2022, will likely want good money.
Of the teams’ RFAs, the ones I see making the team right now are left guard Colton McKivitz, & defensive tackle Kevin Givens, but I doubt they’d tender Givens, but I do see them tendering McKivitz, especially if he wins a key spot on the offensive line, which, right now, would come in at $2.629 million for the original round tender on a $225 million salary cap.
Then there is the question of whether the 49ers would extend wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk, well I think the answer is yes, even if they do extend Deebo Samuel, as Aiyuk’s year 1 & 2 cap numbers would be low, just how it’s been with most of the 49ers long term deals in the past couple years.
The 49ers should also be able to make a splash signing, in addition to extending Aiyuk, but what position that will be, well, that’s impossible to tell at this point.
But there you have it, the 49ers current 2023 salary cap outlook.
As always, leave a comment, or follow me on Twitter @49erscap.
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