SF vs DALLAS recap / SF vs PHILADELPHIA preview

It’s been a crazy and unpredictable season for the San Francisco 49ers going through 3 QB’s but here we are at the NFC Championship game in Philadelphia, winner goes to the Super Bowl.   Before I dive into this matchup let’s do a quick recap of the Cowboys game.

Dallas vs San Francisco

• Trent Williams completely neutralized Micah Parsons to where he was a non-factor.
• Cowboys defense played one of their best games all season, they were fast, physical and pressured Purdy on almost half of his dropbacks 48.5%.
• I’m still trying to figure out what that last play was by the Cowboys ??
• Another playoff game for Brock Purdy with no turnovers, he’s gaining more and more valuable experience passing test after test.
• Robbie Gould has never missed in the playoffs 29-29 FG’s and 38-38 XP.
• 49ers secondary gave up 10 catches and 136 yards to DK Metcalf of the Seahawks last week, CeeDee Lamb of the Cowboys had 10 catches 117 yards.
• Cowboys lose these kind of games for the same reasons:

1. Dak Prescott’s has head scratching plays.
2. Dumb penalties, 2 defensive holding penalties kept the 49ers only TD drive alive.
3. McCarthy’s bad clock management, punted on 4^th and 5 from the 49ers 40 yard line.
4. A good QB with 40 seconds in a game could at least get their team in Hail Mary range but Dak couldn’t do that, last year’s playoff game in the closing seconds he gave the ball to his Center to spot the ball before hiking it instead of giving it to the referee.
5. As long as Dak Prescott is the QB and he has that unexplainable exorbitant contract as a below average to average QB, the Cowboys will never be a real threat to go to a Super Bowl.

The Dallas Cowboys are the modern day Andy Dalton and Marvin Lewis of the Cincinnati Bengals.  Good enough to get to the playoffs but below average QB play and coaching causes them to find ways to lose games.

San Francisco vs Philadelphia

Let’s just say the Philadelphia Eagles had a bye week playing the NY Giants. This game was over before the first quarter ended.   Anybody who thought the NY Giants had a chance to keep it close needed to realize only one player on the Giants could start for the Eagles, Saquon Barkley.

These are the best teams in the NFC and both teams are built the same. John Lynch of the 49ers and Howie Roseman of the Eagles value the offensive and defensive lines.  Both value the QB position and will make moves to improve the team.

Eagles had Carson Wentz, went after Nick Foles which saved their season and drafted Jalen Hurts in the 2^nd round while Wentz was still on the team which alienated Wentz but we know now it was the right move.

49ers had Jimmy Garoppolo, gave up 3 1^st round picks to select Trey Lance, gave Nate Sudfield $2 million guaranteed to be a backup and yet still drafted another QB Brock Purdy.

Eagles knew they messed up taking WR Jalen Reagor in the 1^st round of the 2020 NFL draft so they corrected that mistake by drafting WR DeVonta Smith in the 1^st round of the 2021 NFL draft then trading Reagor.

49ers punted on the 2023 NFL draft by trading their 2^nd, 3^rd and 4^th round picks for Christian McCaffrey.  This move has paid huge dividends.

Preview:

Both teams have good defenses but both are slightly overrated defenses that can be schemed against which is why I love and bet the OVER 46.  Let’s get into keys for both teams:

San Francisco

• Philadelphia has trouble with RB’s who can catch passes out of the backfield. This is Christian McCaffrey territory so I expect him to be heavily involved in the passing game.
• Philadelphia also can’t guard big TE’s that can catch because their LB’s are small. George Kittle has to be a huge factor in this game.  If I’m Kyle Shanahan I’m putting Deebo in the slot as well and hope he gets matched up against a LB during his route.
• Eagles DC Jonathan Gannon runs a very similar defense as the Denver Broncos, LA Rams and LA Chargers so Kyle should be able to scheme against it.
• I don’t believe you can go into Philadelphia with a Super Bowl berth on the line and win with a rookie QB relying solely on running and defense as was the case against Dallas. Brock Purdy will need to make plays in the passing game for the 49ers to have a chance.  Why ??
• Because no rookie QB has ever made the Super Bowl. 4 rookie QB’s since 1990 have started either an AFC or NFC Championship game.  All of them lost and only one covered the point spread.

2009 Mark Sanchez 2 TD’s 1 INT – NY Jets 7 ½ point underdogs lost 30-17.

2008 Joe Flacco 0 TD 3 INT’s – Baltimore Ravens 6-point underdogs lost 23-14.

2004 Ben Roethlisberger 2 TD’s 3 INT’s – Pittsburgh Steelers 3-point underdogs lost 41-27.

2000 Shaun King 0 TD’s 2 INT’s – Tampa Bay 14-point underdogs lost 11-6.

All 4 of these QB’s had good defenses to lean on but at some point in these high stakes playoff games the QB has to make plays to help the team win.  Shanahan has to know this and can’t think running and defense alone will win this game in Philadelphia.

• McCaffrey (calf), Mitchell (groin), will we see more Deebo in the backfield against Philadelphia? 49ers have to test the Eagles run defense because if the RB’s can find consistent run lanes that opens up the play-action pass game.
• The first couple of series have been rocky for Brock Purdy in both playoff games so the 1^st quarter will be very important. Brock has to get settled in and get used to the crowd, environment and game flow.  If Brock is dialed in starting with the 49ers first series on offense that would be huge.
• Brock Purdy has a bad habit of dropping back deep rolling left and either throwing across his body or resetting his feet and get planted by the defense. Can’t do this against the Eagles defense, Purdy will have to step up in the pocket and not drift back too deep.
• 49ers played a physical game against the Cowboys but this is a battle tested group of veterans that have won playoff games in Green Bay and Dallas so playing in Philadelphia will not phase this team.
• Hopefully Kyle Shanahan and/or DeMeco Ryans got on the phone and called DC Dan Quinn of the Dallas Cowboys for tips on how to neutralize Jalen Hurts in the run game.

Philadelphia

• Copy what the Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders did, run elements of the West Coast offense and spread the 49ers out on defense because if the pass rush can’t get there Philly’s receivers will be able to get open to where Jalen just has to make rhythmic timing throws. If so it can be a long day for the 49er defense.
• Test the 49ers secondary with deep shots downfield. The 49ers gave up 10 catches each to Seattle’s and Dallas’ #1 WR’s DK Metcalf and CeeDee Lamb respectively and have a tendency to give up a big play or two downfield.
• Establish the line of scrimmage, if Philadelphia is able to run consistently on the 49ers defense that will force Warner and Greenlaw to play closer to the line of scrimmage which will allow more room for Philadelphia’s receivers to work with.
• Make Brock Purdy beat you. Philadelphia led the NFL with 70 sacks this season and has one of the best CB tandems in the NFL with Darius Slay and James Bradberry.  If the Eagles can stop the running game like Dallas this would be a huge advantage for the Eagles

The best thing the Eagles have going for them in this game is that it’s at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia.  The 49ers are not the NY Giants, they have veterans that have been in this position before 17 starters on the 49ers have played in either an NFC or AFC Championship game, opposed to 6 players on the Eagles.

Philadelphia Eagles coach Nick Sirianni does not call plays whereas Kyle Shanahan does so I give the coaching edge to the 49ers.  The Eagles are #22 in EPA per play when there’s pre-snap motion and #1 in EPA per play in the NFL when there isn’t pre-snap motion.  The 49ers are #1 in pre-snap motion rate in the NFL.

I also think it’s also overstated about the 49ers against mobile QB’s.

Divisional Dallas, Dak Prescott 22 yards

Wildcard Seattle, Geno Smith 28 yards

Week 16 Washington Captains, Taylor Heinicke -4 yards

Week 15 Seattle, Geno Smith 18 yards

Week 12 New Orleans, Taysom Hill 13 yards

None of these guys are bodybuilder type runners like Jalen Hurts and he does have the ability to break off a long run but I don’t think the 49ers run defense against mobile QB’s this season is as bad people try to make it seem.  This season against QB designed runs and QB option runs the 49ers defense ranked #1 in yards per attempt allowed.

I also don’t understand why people are saying Brock Purdy has to prove himself in the playoffs and Jalen Hurts has played the same amount of playoff games….2.   Brock is 2-0 and Jalen is 1-1.

PREDICTION:

I predicted 49ers 27 Cowboys 20 last week.  I got the margin right of 7 points but the score was slightly lower.

San Francisco  27  Philadelphia  23

QUICK NOTE Cincinnati vs Buffalo:

Everybody (not mine) Super Bowl winner this year and the favorite coming into this season the Buffalo Bills got thoroughly embarrassed 27-10 at home.  No team in my lifetime came into a season with more hype for a game they didn’t win the previous season and got more respect than the team that actually won last year, the Cincinnati Bengals.  7 out of 8 coaches coming into the weekend were offensive coaches, the lone defensive coach was Sean McDermott, and yet again he and Allen lost another big game.  Remember McDermott is a defensive coach and in

1. 2020 – gave up 38 to Kansas City in the playoffs – LOSS
2. 2021 – gave up 42 to Kansas City in the playoffs and his defense couldn’t get off the field – LOSS
3. 2022 – gave up 27 to Cincinnati and they were able to do just about everything they wanted. This game wasn’t competitive and the Bengals could’ve scored more – LOSS

Every Coach/QB combination that has won a Super Bowl, won their first Super Bowl within 5 years.

• Sean McDermott / Josh Allen just completed year 5….a Super Bowl win with this pair ain’t happening.  One of them has to go and I would choose Allen to stay.
• Same goes for Lamar Jackson / Jim Harbaugh year 5 has come and gone and a Super Bowl win ain’t happening here either. One of them has to go and I believe Lamar won’t be a Baltimore Raven next season.

QUICKER NOTE Cincinnati vs Kansas City:

This is the year to get the Kansas City Chiefs – no Tyreek Hill, starting 6 rookies and Mahomes has 1 good leg.

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Hucklebuck Jones

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