With the 49ers making a blockbuster trade last week to bring in running back Christian McCaffrey, I want to delve deeper into 2023, and determine what free agents the 49ers realistically can afford to bring back, both short term, & long term.
Before we go into the free agents, we must begin with what the 49ers currently have for 2023, which is 33 players signed, with a projected $8,713,077 in cap room, but that’s with just 33 players signed, so when they have enough players signed to get to the top 51 rule, they’d be $4,786,923 over the cap, and this is with a projected $225 million cap for 2023.
Below are the 33 players signed, with their current cap number for 2023.
- LT 71 Trent Williams(2026)- $27,227,424
- DT 91 Arik Armstead(2024)- $24,125,412
- MLB 54 Fred Warner(2026)- $18,525,000
- TE 85 George Kittle(2025)- $18,092,575
- DE 97 Nick Bosa(2023)- $17,869,000
- CB 7 Charvarius Ward(2024)- $16,405,000
- RB 23 Christian McCaffrey(2025)- $12,000,000
- QB 5 Trey Lance(2024)- $9,301,434
- WR 19 Deebo Samuel(2025)- $8,635,882
- FB 44 Kyle Juszcyzk(2025)- $6,565,221
- WLB 57 Dre Greenlaw(2024)- $5,677,970
- NT 99 Javon Kinlaw(2023)- $4,928,223
- WR 11 Brandon Aiyuk(2023)- $3,987,248
- MLB 48 Oren Burks(2023)- $2,773,000
- WR/KR/PR 3 Ray-Ray McCloud III(2023)- $2,090,000
- LG 65 Aaron Banks(2024)- $1,929,166
- SS 30 George Odum(2024)- $1,840,000
- P 18 Mitch Wishnowsky(2026)- $1,700,000
- DE 95 Drake Jackson(2025)- $1,339,180
- CB 20 Ambry Thomas(2024)- $1,305,232
- RB 32 Tyrion Davis-Price(2025)- $1,161,033
- WR 6 Danny Gray(2025)- $1,146,569
- TE 89 Charlie Woerner(2023)- $1,055,258
- RG 74 Spencer Burford(2025)- $1,038,014
- RT 76 Jaylon Moore(2024)- $1,020,759
- CB 38 Deommodore Lenoir(2024)- $1,011,217
- SS 29 Talanoa Hufanga(2024)- $1,000,038
- RB 25 Elijah Mitchell(2024)- $985,893
- CB 26 Samuel Womack III(2025)- $940,831
- LG/C 63 Nick Zakelj(2025)- $917,590
- NT 93 Kalia Davis(2025)- $903,003
- QB 13 Brock Purdy(2025)- $889,253
- RB 24 Jordan Mason(2024)- $873,333
Now, let’s look at the teams’ pending free agents.
UFA:
RB Jeff Wilson Jr.
RB Tevin Coleman
TE Ross Dwelley
TE Tyler Kroft
TE Jordan Matthews
C Jake Brendel
C Daniel Brunskill
RT Mike McGlinchey
DE Jordan Willis
DE Samson Ebukam
DE Kerry Hyder Jr.
DE Charles Omenihu
DE Kemoko Turay
DT Akeem Spence
DT Maurice Hurst Jr.
NT Hassan Ridgeway
SLB Azeez Al-Shaair
CB Emmanuel Moseley
CB Jason Verrett
FS Jimmie Ward
FS Tashaun Gipson Sr.
FS Tarvarius Moore
PK Robbie Gould
LS Taybor Pepper
RFA:
LT Colton McKivitz
DT Kevin Givens
SLB Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles
ERFA:
WR Jauan Jennings
RG Blake Hance
WLB Curtis Robinson
The 49ers will likely tender all of their RFAs, & ERFAs, which would be $2.625 million for both Givens, & Flannigan-Fowles, each, $2.745 million for McKivitz, & $940,000 for Jennings, Hance, & Robinson, which would put the team $2,219,570 over with just 39 players signed, and with 51 players signed, they’d be $11,219,570 over.
The 49ers should get back a good amount of credits, in forms of adjustments, which I went over Wednesday, which would be around $3,705,143, which would put the 49ers $1,603,220 under a $225 million salary cap, but that’s with just 39 players signed/tendered, and with 51 players, they’d be $7,396,780 over the 2023 cap, and this is also before carryover, which could be in the $2 million range, which would put the 49ers $3,603,220 under with 39 players, or $5,896,780 over with 51 players, so the team will have to do some contract restructuring so they have some cap room to retain or replace free agents.
The 49ers best options for restructures are below.
RB Christian McCaffrey – $8.576 million max, $7,146,666 minimum
TE George Kittle – $8.456 million max, $7,927,500 minimum
LT Trent Williams – $14.588 million max, $13,676,250 minimum
DT Arik Armstead – $11.78 million max, $11,043,750 minimum
MLB Fred Warner – $9.476 million max, $8,883,750 minimum
I think it’s obvious that the 49ers will rework McCaffrey’s deal, as the $12 million cap number just isn’t feasible for 2023, and they’ll likely restructure Trent Williams, & Fred Warner’s deal, which would save the team a total of $32.64 million in cap room, which would put the 49ers $27,243,220 under the 2023 cap., but this is with 51 players signed.
Now, having over $27.243 million is a lot of salary cap room, but it doesn’t mean the 49ers can, or should bring back every free agent, as they have to be careful not to mess up their 2024 salary cap, and beyond, so they’ll likely have to pick & choose who they want to bring back.
Let’s look at each of the teams’ pending UFAs, and determine if they’re really someone the 49ers would bring back in 2023, either short term, or in the long term.
RB Jeff Wilson Jr. – Right now, Wilson leads the team in rushing with 88 carries, 454 rushing yards, & 2 rushing touchdowns, and he’s been a breath of fresh air since the Elijah Mitchell injury, he hits the holes, and is explosive, so he’s a player I see the 49ers attempting to re-sign in the offseason, likely in the $2.5 million a year range.
TE Ross Dwelley – Dwelley hasn’t really been that great of a player, he’s been good for being an undrafted free agent, but nothing mind blowing, or explosive, so he’s someone I think the 49ers should let walk, as they need to upgrade at the #2 TE spot.
TE Tyler Kroft – Kroft, like Dwelley, is a player that hasn’t done much, he was injured early in the season, and hasn’t been active since then, but he’ll get his opportunity this weekend if Kyle Juszcyzk is indeed out, but he’s a player that the 49ers can probably bring back on a veteran minimum deal.
TE Jordan Matthews – Matthews tore his ACL early during training camp, and I just don’t see how Matthews is that much of an upgrade over Dwelley, Kroft, or Charlie Woerner, so he likely is let go, or only gets a veteran minimum deal.
C Jake Brendel – Brendel has been pretty good this season, and is a player I believe can be had back on a veteran minimum salary benefit deal, where he gets $1.08 million, but only $940,000 counts against the cap, along with up to $152,500 in bonus money.
C/RG Daniel Brunskill – I think the team is high on Brunskill, and while he has played well, both this season, and in the past, I don’t know if the 49ers bring him back, as he might get more attention on the open market, likely in the $3 million a year or more range, something I doubt the 49ers will want to pay for what is basically a utility offensive lineman, but I would bring Brunskill back.
RT Mike McGlinchey – McGlinchey was having his best season in 2021 before a season-ending injury, and so far he hasn’t looked bad, or great, he seems to be an average right tackle, good in run blocking, poor in pass blocking, and I think he gets in the $15 million or more a year range, something the 49ers likely won’t want to pay him, not when they’re paying Trent Williams $23.01 million on average per year.
DE Jordan Willis – Willis has yet to play this season, and is still on injured reserve, so as of now, I doubt Willis would command a lot of money, and he can probably be had for the veteran minimum, that’s if the 49ers want Willis back.
DE Samson Ebukam – Ebukam has played well this year, with 3.5 sacks on the season, but right now is dealing with an achilles injury issue, but hopefully it’s not something that would linger on, so he’s someone I would try my best to bring back, and I think he can get somewhere in the $10 million to $12 million a year.
DE Kerry Hyder Jr. – Hyder signed a 1-year deal, worth $1.5 million after being released by the Seahawks in the offseason, and he’s someone who has thrived under 49ers defensive line coach Kris Kocurek, and should be able to be had for $2.5 million a year, if the 49ers choose to bring back the versatile defensive lineman.
DE Charles Omenihu – Omenihu was acquired last season for a 2023 draft pick, and he’s shown some real promise, as he’s shown quickness, along with power, and has 3 sacks on the season, so I think the 49ers will want him back, somewhere in the $5 million a year range.
DE Kemoko Turay – Turay was given a 1-year deal, worth $1.6 million, but was cut at final cuts, but was signed to the teams’ practice squad, later being signed to the 53-man roster, Turay showed some nice speed, and power in the preseason, so if the 49ers want Turay back, he should be able to be had for somewhere in the veteran minimum to $1.5 million range, likely on a 1 or 2-year deal.
DT Akeem Spence – Spence was signed off the teams’ practice squad once Javon Kinlaw was placed on injured reserve, and he’s been a good player, a nice role player, and if the 49ers want him back, he can likely be had for the veteran minimum.
DT Maurice Hurst Jr. – Hurst was re-signed to a 1-year deal, worth $945,000, but he had a season-ending injury, and is on injured reserve, and if the 49ers want him back, he’ll have to take a straight veteran minimum deal, no bonuses, no incentives, nothing, just a 1-year deal, that counts just $940,000, and even that is a gamble, because if he gets hurt, especially for then season, that $940,000 becomes money that the 49ers can’t use, so I’d move on from him.
NT Hassan Ridgeway – Ridgeway has been very impressive thus far, he has 15 combined tackles, and 1 sack, he’s shown nice quickness, and power, I think he can be had back on a 1-year, $2.5 million deal, & it would be money well spent.
SLB Azeez Al-Shaair – Al-Shaair is currently on injured reserve due to a sprained MCL, and I think it’s obvious the 49ers made their choice between Al-Shaair, and Dre Greenlaw, when they gave Greenlaw a 2-year deal, averaging $8.5 million a year, but if the 49ers wanted to retain him, they’re going to have to go beyond $5 million a year.
CB Emmanuel Moseley – Moseley unfortunately tore his ACL in the 49ers win in Carolina, and it’s a shame, as he was having a breakout season, he was just a shutdown cornerback, and he was on his way to a nice payday, likely in the $13 million a year range, something I would still do, obviously with more injury guarantees, but I think he’s going to have to take a 1-2 year deal, and hope to cash in during the 2024 offseason.
CB Jason Verrett – Verrett was just activated off of reserve/PUP, so he hasn’t played a game, yet, but we have no clue how far along he is from the torn ACL he suffered week 1 of the 2021 season, and honestly I don’t know what Verrett can be had for, if he can play, he may be somewhere in the $5 million a year range, and if he doesn’t play well, or just can’t play, do you want him back? Even at the veteran minimum? That’s something we’ll soon find out, if/when Verrett does indeed play, whether this week, or later this season.
FS Jimmie Ward – Ward, who is in the final year of a 3-year deal, that averages $9.5 million a year, has only played 2 games this season, and currently had a broken hand, but will likely be in uniform Sunday when the 49ers take on the Rams in LA, and his recent comments about being the slot cornerback, and a team player in his contract year, tells me that he’s at least wanting to test free agency, which, if the 49ers want him back, they’d be wise to do so before his deal voids, as it leaves $6.395 million in dead money, & essentially paying a player two cap hits in 1 season isn’t smart business, so I expect him gone.
FS Tashaun Gipson Sr. – Gipson has been a very good player, maybe not the past 2 weeks, as he’s had his chances at some INTs, but he’s played well enough for me to consider Jimmie Ward to be expendable, and he could be had for a veteran minimum salary benefit deal, again where only $940,000 counts, and he can get up to $152,500 in bonuses.
FS Tarvarius Moore – Moore had a very good 2019, but since then, he’s not been the same player he was, he was used at cornerback his rookie year, he didn’t look like a good fit there, then in 2020 his production was down, and in 2021 he had a season-ending torn Achilles injury, so I’d expect him to be a 1-year veteran minimum deal, or just let go of.
PK Robbie Gould – Gould has been good this season, and his entire career, & if he wants to play, & be back in San Francisco, then I see it happening, but he could sign back with his hometown Chicago Bears, leaving the 49ers needing a place kicker.
LS Taybor Pepper – Finally we have the teams’ long snapper, who has been consistent, you don’t hear his name much, which for a long snapper is usually a good thing, meaning he’s doing good, and if had back, it’d likely be a small 3-4 year deal, with a small signing bonus.
Well, there you have it, a breakdown of each of the teams’ pending UFAs, whether they’d bring them back, or not.
Basically, I don’t see the 49ers bringing back the likes of Mike McGlinchey, Azeez Al-Shaair, & Jimmie Ward, but trying to bring back the likes of Samson Ebukam, Charles Omenihu, & Emmanuel Moseley.
If you want my perspective, please check out my current, but ever changing mock offseason plan for 2023, here.
As always, thank you for reading, you can follow me on twitter @49erscap for more salary cap information & tidbits.
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