The ins and outs of trading Jimmy Garoppolo

Jimmy Garoppolo said his goodbyes to the 49ers media and fans in an end-of-season press conference last week, after an emotional loss to the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC Championship Game. He will almost certainly be traded this offseason, as the 49ers spent three first-round draft picks (2021, 2022 and 2023) on his replacement, Trey Lance, who flashed tantalising glimpses of his talent in limited action during the 2021 regular season. This article aims to set out what to consider when setting expectations for what the 49ers might receive in trade compensation, and what the issues are surrounding any trade that takes place.

Assessing Jimmy Garoppolo’s value:

Jimmy Garoppolo’s trade value is affected by a multitude of factors that make it difficult to pin down what a suitable return for him would be for the 49ers.

Firstly, the play on the field: he has won a lot of games as the starter for the 49ers (35-16 as a starter incl. postseason) displaying rare quick release on throws over the middle, getting the ball out on time and leading numerous clutch drives in the 4^th quarter and overtime. He also learnt from the best with Tom Brady at quarterback sneaking – Garoppolo has 100% first down rate on quarterback sneak attempts. These are extremely desirable traits in any quarterback. However, he frequently frustrates fans and coaches with poor decision making – both in terms of reading the field and throwing the ball into coverage. He will also sometimes miss or have poor ball placement on throws to wide open receivers. Since tearing his ACL in the 2018 season, his mobility and escapability have not been the same as that which he exhibited in the five game stretch at the end of the 2017 season. Unfortunately, Garoppolo tends to demonstrate all of these traits, both good and bad, within the same game.

For all his on-field flaws, Jimmy Garoppolo has been a tremendous professional in his time with the 49ers. He never says anything of substance in his press conferences, he never throws his team-mates or coaches under the bus and he is universally loved in the locker room. Garoppolo has also dealt with huge adversity – learning a brand new scheme after being traded mid-season from New England in 2017, to the point where he played well enough that the 49ers went on a five game winning streak after opening the season 1-10, coming back from a serious knee injury to play all nineteen games of the 2019 season, retaining the starting job (just) after the front office did everything they could to replace him (including trying to trade for Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford in the 2021 offseason before eventually spending three first-round picks to draft Trey Lance), and finally leading the 3-5, down-and-out 2021 San Francisco 49ers to a 10-7 record and an NFC Championship berth. There is always a ‘but’: Jimmy Garoppolo has played all sixteen or seventeen games of the regular season only once for the 49ers in the four full seasons he has been the starter. Any team looking to trade for Garoppolo has to accept that he needs a good level of protection from his offensive line and reconcile themselves to him missing time.

There are also a number of other logistical factors which will determine Garoppolo’s trade value and any timing of the trade. If he is traded on the first day of the new league year (March 16^th 2022), the team trading for him has to be able to maintain salary cap solubility at the time of the trade. Currently there are only ten teams in the NFL with the level of effective cap space to be able to do that (per overthecap.com) of which several of these teams have an incumbent starter or highly drafted quarterback already on the roster. The 49ers will also have to carry his cap hit into the new league year – and they are currently over the projected salary cap already, before agreeing to terms with any of their in-house free agents. Teams also haven’t begun making cuts necessary to get under the salary cap for this season (projected at $208.2M), never mind make space for a franchise-level quarterback contract that Jimmy Garoppolo will inevitably demand – he is in the last year of his current deal with no more guaranteed money. Eventually the number of teams that can take his current contract will increase as teams prepare for free agency, but the 49ers have spoken in glowing terms about Garoppolo and wanting to do right by him – this means sending him to a contending team, which again reduces the pool of available teams for a trade. The draft compensation will also be dictated by market forces – Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson are under contract for at least 2022 like Jimmy Garoppolo, but are universally acknowledged to be elite-level quarterbacks and rumoured to be traded this offseason, whereas Garoppolo most certainly is not, and the 49ers can’t afford to keep him at his current cap hit. Teams may wait to see what these quarterbacks command in trade compensation before looking to make a deal for Garoppolo.

My assessment: Jimmy Garoppolo is likely worth a mid- to low-second round pick in 2022 or 2023.

A range of possibilities – manage your expectations for the upcoming offseason!

San Francisco 49ers pundits and fans have been spending Jimmy Garoppolo’s 2022 cap dollars for at least the last twelve months and fantasising over the draft pick he might recoup in a trade. It might not be quite that straightforward – here’s why:

• The 49ers are currently over the salary cap and have numerous in-house restricted and exclusive rights free agents to tender before free agency even begins – which means that a good portion of the expected $25.55M cap savings is effectively already spent.
• The 49ers may use their current draft picks in the deal to try and move up into either the first round or top 40 picks of the year’s draft. They have nine current draft picks, including compensatory selections, which is likely more rookies than would make the 53-man roster come September 2022. Lynch and Shanahan closely guarded their first round selections from 2017-2020 until deciding to pull the trigger on Trey Lance in the 2021 draft – you can bet they would like those first rounders from 2022 and 2023 back if they can manage it.
• The most recent trade of a starting calibre quarterback (Carson Wentz in 2021) included conditional picks for the following year. The Colts sent a 2^nd round pick in 2022 as part of the trade package, which has now become a 2022 1^st round pick due to Wentz’s playing time. Garoppolo may not return such a high pick, but look for the trading team to add conditions about his playing time in 2022, especially given his recent injury history (shoulder, thumb, calf in 2021), to a draft pick in 2023, and perhaps not give up a draft pick at all in 2022.
• Teams that need a quarterback almost certainly haven’t finished evaluating this year’s rookie quarterback class, and the soonest any of them might is after the NFL Combine, taking place 1^st – 7^th March. The benefits of having a quarterback on a rookie contract are immense (part of the reason the 49ers drafted Garoppolo’s replacement), but the recent history of highly drafted rookies is significantly spotty. Last year’s class, one of the most highly touted quarterback draft classes for years, in which five quarterbacks were taken in the top 15 picks (an NFL record), produced more question marks than wins, and of the six drafted quarterbacks that saw starting action, five of them have now experienced a change in head coach or offensive co-ordinator (to date, only Zach Wilson of the New York Jets has maintained his 2021 head coach AND offensive co-ordinator, and he did not play very well at all in 2021). Given the current discourse around this year’s quarterback draft class, and recent draft history, Jimmy Garoppolo – as a proven veteran quarterback with playoff experience – suddenly looks a lot more attractive.
• The 49ers have important pieces of the secondary, defensive line and offensive line hitting the open market this off-season. It has been rumoured that the 49ers would like to return a player as part of any Garoppolo trade, and some recent trades suggest these positions are positions that teams are willing to include in trade packages – perhaps fortunately for the 49ers. The (now) Washington Commanders sent their talented cornerback, Kendall Fuller, to the Kansas City Chiefs as part of a deal for quarterback Alex Smith in 2018. The New York Giants effectively swapped wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr and defensive end Olivier Vernon for the Browns’ first and third round picks in 2019, plus guard Kevin Zeitler and safety Jabrill Peppers. Although the 49ers don’t have a lot of cap room for expensive veterans, they are going to have to pay someone at those positions, so if they can get a player who can help them and is possibly under contract for 2023 (like they did in the trade for defensive end Charles Omenihu in 2021), it is something they should consider.

My predictions:

• Jimmy Garoppolo and pick 93 to the Washington Commanders for picks 42 and 73
• Jimmy Garoppolo and a 3^rd round pick in 2023 to the Pittsburgh Steelers for EDGE Alex Highsmith and a 3^rd/conditional 2^nd round pick in 2023 (conditional on 2022 playing time or 2022 postseason appearance)
• Jimmy Garoppolo, pick 93 and a 4^th round pick in 2023 to the Denver Broncos for pick 40 and tight end Albert Okwuegbunam

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Robert Webb

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