The 49ers defense seemed to start off the 2021 slow before turning into a dominant defense by the end of the season. That dominant defense returns a ton of talent as well as DeMeco Ryans who proved himself to be an elite defensive coordinator as the year went on. There is a lot to be excited about heading into next season as this unit really has a chance to be the best in the league. Lets jump right into a position by position breakdown while assessing the possibility of each position being addressed in the draft.
DE/EDGE: As of now we have Bosa, Ebukam, Omenihu, and Ford under contract. I have a hard time imagine a world where Ford is on the team next year leaving the first 3 plus hopefully Key and Willis if they can resign them(Check out a great article about Dee Fords situation by Jason Hurley here). One of the reasons the defense started off slower last year was due to the lack of production on the other side of Bosa. It was a one man show before Key began to breakout. The addition of Omenihu was a strong one as he showed his worth once he started to fit into his role. Heading into next year this position all depends on how free agency plays out. If they can bring back Key or replace him with someone that can hold their own, this position is in really good shape. I’d expect them to still look to take a high ceiling prospect later in the mid rounds but it would not be a priority for them. If they aren’t able to shore up the position opposite Bosa, then I expect them to be aggressive in the draft trying to find someone who can step in right away with one of their earlier picks and maybe even trade up to ensure they find someone they love.
DT/NT: Another huge benefit of Key coming on strong was allowing Armstead to truly stay inside where he is a lot stronger. Armstead and Jones up the middle formed a run stopping duo that is a defensive coordinators dream. The sad part of this dream is that Jones is a UFA this year so they’ll likely need to spend a little cash to keep him(Jason Hurley anticipates a deal upwards of 10mil in this article). The team also has Kinlaw under contract and the ability to bring back Kentavius Street and/or Big Mo Hurst. There is a lot of potential at this position making the DJ Jones decision very interesting. Street broke up last year and really showed some ability up the middle. Kinlaw is an absolute monster of a human but hasn’t quite put it all together on the field yet. If they don’t bring back Jones, I still see this as a strong position due to the potential the have. I don’t envision a draft pick being spent on an interior d-lineman. If Jones does leave, the move wise will be to find a veteran to shore up the position instead of yet another young player.
WLB: This position has the player that I see the most conflicting opinions on in Dre Greenlaw. He has showed a lot in his first two years and I feel he gets judged as a 5 year vet sometimes. Dre was a 5th round pick but showed a lot his rookie year. He didn’t take the step forward a lot expected but it would have been hard for him to live up to the hype and he missed time with injury. Overall, Dre is a solid WLB. He isn’t more, he isn’t less, he is just a solid linebacker that adds a level of aggression that fits very well with the identity of this defense. The niners also have a solid veteran in Marcel Harris at the position. This is not a spot I see the team spending any draft picks on outside of them falling in love with someone late, but that can be said about any position.
MLB: Fred Warner. Why do the 49ers always have to fight whether or not their guys are the best in the league? Kittle and Warner are both clearly the best at the position but don’t get the love they need.
SLB: Oh man, did Azeez Al-Shaair have a breakout season or what? (There is no promise I won’t call another player a breakout player in this article). Azeez was an undrafted free agent out of the 2019 draft. He wasn’t a complete unknown, however, as his former college coach out of FIU was raving about how great of a pro player Azeez would be. That coach? Lane Kiffin. And it is safe to say the niners are glad they listened to him. Azeez is a RFA this year but it is expected the team will be bringing him back this year. The team also has another young, talent player at the position in Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles who is an ERFA. Linebacker as a whole is a position the team likely won’t address in the draft due to the overall talent and youth. Expect the free agency to be the spot they look for a linebacker at any position if they do bring anyone in.
CB: This position was another that started the season poorly and showed a lot of improvement as the year went out. Injuries and youth were really the two storylines of the position. Moseley missed some time but had a pretty strong season when healthy and is under contract for next season. Verrett showed that the 2020 season was too good to be true and got hurt early on in 2021. Whether the team brings him back or not is unknown but he isn’t someone that can be counted on. There were also the rookies, Lenior and Thomas, who had polar opposite seasons. Lenior had a great start and looked like the steal of the draft before disappearing by the end of the season. Thomas was inactive for a lot of games to start the year before absolutely breaking out as the year went on. Going into next year the team will have both rookies and Moseley. The two mainstays of the position in Dontae Johnson and K’waun Williams are free agents. K’waun is the move that I think impacts the draft the most. Moseley would be a candidate to replace K’waun at NB opening up a position on the outside. I think the team is in need of another potential impact player at the position and despite the young talent already there, feel the team can make a move to get a corner early in the draft to shore up the position for the next few years without a heavy cap commitment.
S: Ward, Hufanga, and Moore are the players under contract here. Ward continued to be one of the best safeties in the league last year. Tartt was his partner in the backfield of the secondary but is a UFA. Tartt returning is less about money and more about the teams feelings on Hufanga and Moore. Hufanga showed a lot of flashes last year and his ability to play in the box would free up Ward to roam the field more in coverage which he excels at. Moore is a fan favorite despite limited action on the field. He was a 3rd round pick in 2018 and ran a 4.32 coming out of college which is likely why the fanbase has a like of hype surrounding him. This is yet another position on the defense where the draft won’t be the best place to address the position due to the talented youth. Look for the team to either bring back Tartt or look for a free agent to fill out this position.
Overall the defense is in an incredible position for 2022 as mentioned earlier. They will very likely take a step forward next year as they got a lot of key contributions out of young players that will be looking to take a big step forward next year.
DRAFT TALK
Shifting the focus more directly to the draft. The 49ers now have a 9th pick in the upcoming draft after the news of the Dolphins hiring Mike McDaniel as their head coach. They will add a 3rd round compensatory pick due to the leagues incentives for developing minority coaches into head coaches. This gives the team more firepower to work with regarding a potential move into the early second round or even the first round. As mentioned in the previous article, there is also the pending trade of Jimmy G which will likely add to the haul of picks the niners have to work with.
If I didn’t hint enough towards it, it is my belief the 49ers will be aggressive in trading up in the draft. This front office has showed the willingness to move up and all around the draft in the past and this years draft is set up for them to do some more trading. The obvious part of this is that their first pick is in the second round at pick 63 due to them losing their first this year as part of the Trey Lance trade. The other factor that makes a trade very likely is the overall talent level and youth on this roster. They have very few needs and have done such a good job of drafting recently that there are future starters all throughout the roster. The best thing for this team to do is try to find a high level starter (or two) in this draft as opposed to keeping what could be 10 picks or more after the Jimmy G trade and continuing to add depth.
When looking at the overall positions to target early in the draft, the team could use an iOL and a CB. The team could also target a RT or a DE in the draft depending on their opinions of their current players and how the free agency plays out. 3 of those spots (iOL, RT, and CB) are spots where getting an impact player would make more sense over finding a starter level player in the late 2nd/3rd rounds or trying to find a high ceiling prospect in need of some development. The lack of high level needs here makes the odds of the team trying to move up even higher as it can be hard to find impact players in the late second round and even harder in the 3rd round.
Looking into the mid to late rounds, the team has a few positions it could target. Mid rounds, they will likely target some of the positions from the positions they wanted to target early that they weren’t able to find a player in. An easy pick for this would be the iOL and even RT as the 3rd, 4th, and 5th rounds have been a gold mind for offensive lineman outside left tackle. If the team does bring back Key, the EDGE position would become a place where they look for a high ceiling guy in these mid rounds.
As far as some new positions to target later on, TE, RB, WR, and S would be options. If an athletic blocking TE fell to the team, it could be hard to pass. I believe the team likes Woerner and would be more likely to go the free agent route for depth, but on the other end of the coin, envisioning an offense with a second impact TE to go with the new look they’ll have with Trey Lance would be dangerous. Having 2 players that provide plus run blocking and pass catching open up so many options for play calling and would make the team even more difficult to defend. Looking at the RB position, even bringing everyone back I see a move late in the draft at this position. I mentioned in my previous article that the team could use some depth here. Injuries were an issue and we need to make sure we are steady at RB to support Lance. Shanny is an expert at late round RBs and there are a few in this draft that fit his mold. The WR position is full of youth already but that shouldn’t stop the team from targeting someone as the draft goes on with a high ceiling. Only Deebo is set in stone as a certified impact player so the team shouldn’t rest on Aiyuk and Jennings development. They showed signs but continuing to add young depth here is important on top of a veteran free agent or two. Lastly the team could make a move for a safety depending on how the position plays out. This is a reach to me but if there is one in the 3rd or 4th round they really like, it would make sense for them to pull the trigger if they keep Tartt and feel Hufanga or Moore aren’t going to develop into starters.
Overall the draft is very hard to predict because nothing is set in stone. The team will not have a set plan and will be flexible based on what is going on around them. If a player they love starts falling in the first round, it will make them more aggressive to move up. There is also the factor of players falling in positions they feel they are strong at that would cause them to make what looks like a surprise pick due to positional need. This is what makes the draft so unpredictable and so exciting at the same time. Anytime a team goes into the draft without major glaring needs, it makes the draft much more fun. We also get the added benefit of the upcoming Jimmy G trade that will be sure to provide us some entertainment and excitement before the draft.
There aren’t any ‘right’ or ‘wrong’ predictions on the draft. Comment with your beliefs below and follow me on twitter @PanderXanderson. I promise I’ll only slightly disappoint you.
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