January 14th, 2022
By @TedH6
It’s been almost 26 years since the Niners faced the Cowboys in the playoffs, and the Cowboys are still up there as one of my most disliked teams.
Neither team is what they once were when they met in the NFCCG in 1995. Both had more pro bowlers & All Pros than in any game before or since. Back then, the NFCCG was essentially the Super Bowl. No AFC team stood a realistic chance of beating either the Niners or the Cowboys. in the Super Bowl.
Last time the 49ers played the Cowboys in the postseason, it was the most star-studded game in NFL history..
— David Lombardi (@LombardiHimself) January 11, 2022
-21 Pro Bowlers
-19 All-Pros
-10 future Hall of Famers
-All-time leading receiver
-All-time leading rusher
.. graced Candlestick Park’s fieldhttps://t.co/9ZgGnr8a9a
While there may not be quite as many stars this Sunday, there are definitely some really bright ones.
NINERS OFFENSE:
DeeBo Samuel finished the season with:
- 77 catches for 1405 yards = 18.2 yards per reception
- 6 receiving TDs + 59 rushes for 365 yards 6.2 yards per carry
- 8 rushing TDs + 2 pass attempts
- 1 completion for 24 yards
- + a TD
That’s 1794 yards total yards (& 15 total TDS) and ranks him a top 5 WR (5th in yards, but only 23rd in targets) & arguably the most dangerous offensive weapon in the league. Deebo made the Pro Bowl & 1st team All Pro & OPOY honors are not out of the question, even MVP, if didn’t always go to a QB. To think that some people said that we should trade him in the offseason…Shame on you!
Deebo Samuel is a damn bully. #49ers pic.twitter.com/XWWHdMMQEJ
— Coach Yac ? (@Coach_Yac) January 11, 2022
Deebo Samuel is one of a kind. ⛓ #49ers pic.twitter.com/AmSAW4qD33
— Coach Yac ? (@Coach_Yac) January 10, 2022
Trent Williams is not only best LT & best O Lineman, he might just be the best football player, at any position, in 2021. Yes, I said it.
#49ers George Kittle on Trent Williams:
— Cam Inman (@CamInman) January 13, 2022
"He’s the best football player I’ve ever played with, so it’s very helpful. He makes everybody’s life a lot easier. Trent a little bit hurt is still better than almost everybody in the NFL, regardless of the position."
George Kittle is the best TE in football. His 2021 stats are not what they could’ve been had he not played 3 games injured & missed 3 games. 71 catches for 910 yards = 12.8 yards per reception & 6 receiving TDs + 3 carries for 20. Two things that Kittle performs at an elite level do not show up in a box score: Blocking & being a decoy to help get other Niners skill players open. He made the Pro Bowl.
Per NFL communications: George Kittle is the first TE in NFL history w/ 150 receiving yards and a TD catch in consecutive games.
— Al Sacco (@AlSacco49) December 13, 2021
Kittle became the fourth TE ever with at least 13 receptions in three career games. #49ers
Brandon Aiyuk (WR) had a sophomore slump to begin the season; however, he came on strong at the end – 56 catches for 827 yards = 14.8 yards per reception & 5 TDs. I can’t wait to see what BA will do, once he finally has a QB who can throw deep & outside the numbers.
When Brandon Aiyuk finished with 107 receiving yards, Deebo Samuel had 95 & Jauan Jennings had 94, it marked the first time in #49ers history three players finished with 90 or more receiving yards in a game (kinda amazing considering who else has caught passes for the franchise)
— Matt Barrows (@mattbarrows) January 13, 2022
Juice is the best FB in football. Stats don’t reflect his amazing blocking, but here they are: 30 catches for 296 yards = 9.9 yards per reception & 1 receiving TD + 8 rushes for 22 yards & a TD. Jimbo missed him for at least 2 walk-in TDs at Seahawks & at Titans that robbed him of close 100 yards as well the 2 tuddies.
https://twitter.com/BaldyNFL/status/1455270704207826951?s=20
Elijah “The Revenant” Mitchell was injured often, and still had one the best rookie seasons of any Niners RB ever – 207 carries for 967 yards = 4.7 yards per carry & 5 rushing TDS + 19 receptions for 137 yards = 7.2 yards per reception & 1 receiving TD = over 1000 combined yards & 6 TDs.
Terrell Davis’ rookie season: 237 rushes, 4.7 yards per carry, 8 TDs.
— Grant Cohn (@grantcohn) January 12, 2022
Elijah Mitchell’s rookie season: 207 rushes, 4.7 yards per carry, 6 TDs.
Jauan Jennings WR was basically a rookie in 2021, after missing the 2020 season due to injuries – with just 24 catches, he amassed 282 yards = 11.8 yards per reception & 5 receiving TDs – Much like KB before him, almost all of his catches were either 1st downs, or TDs.
Jauan Jennings is the definition of clutch. He has 24 catches this season. 20 of those resulted in either a first down or a TD. #49ers pic.twitter.com/OjXPIuWBEO
— Coach Yac ? (@Coach_Yac) January 10, 2022
Alex Mack C is not what he used to be. That said, he really solidified the Niners’ O Line’s pass blocking.
Please enjoy Alex Mack causally putting the defender in a head lock pic.twitter.com/5KRo0otsYW
— Brad (@Graham_SFN) January 12, 2022
Laken Tomlinson LG has been ironman. He has always been a very good, to great, run blocker, and his pass blocking has finally improved.
Laken Tomlinson’s durability has been worth its weight in gold for the 49ers. He’s also developed into a plus-pass protector on a line that hasn’t had an abundance of them.
— David Lombardi (@LombardiHimself) January 13, 2022
And yes, Tomlinson should absolutely be an SF offseason priority — the interior OL needs a pillar https://t.co/srApaK4rB5
Tom Compton RT may not be a very good pass blocker, but his run blocking was ranked 2nd in the league, behind only the mighty Trent W.
The top two tackles this season in the NFL in run blocking grade were Trent Williams (98.5) and Tom Compton (92.2). #49ers
— Jeff Deeney (jeffdeeney on Threads) (@PFF_Jeff) January 10, 2022
The Niners’ O is loaded with YAC monsters & is only limited by their QB, Jimmy G, who had a 68.3% completion rate, for 3810 yards, 20 TDs & 12 INTs, 8.5 YPA, 98.7 passer rating & 52.6 QBR.
Key for some of the abbreviations…
— David Lombardi (@LombardiHimself) January 12, 2022
ANY/A: adjusted net yards per attempt
CPOE: completion percentage over expectation
CPAE: completion percentage above expectation (NFL Next Gen tracking data)
TTT: average time from snap to release
NINERS DEFENSE:
Nick Bosa is a top 3 DE & should be in the DPOY & CPOY conversations. He finished the season with 15.5 sacks, 21 Tackles For a Loss, 32 QB & 52 tackles – all this despite being double-teamed far more frequently than any other DE in the league. Like Kittle, this helped get 1:1 match-ups for the rest of the Niners’ D-Line, who, late in the season, feasted on opposing QBs. “Thicc Nick” was snubbed by the All Pro voters, so I’d really hate to be his next opponent!
"I don't think people appreciate how good Bosa is play in and play out," Shanahan said of Nick Bosa, who wasn't voted to the All-Pro team despite leading the NFL in tackles for loss while seeing the highest double team rate of any edge rusher
— David Lombardi (@LombardiHimself) January 14, 2022
I think the last thing Dallas wanted to see on Sunday was an All-Pro-snubbed Nick Bosa
— David Lombardi (@LombardiHimself) January 14, 2022
Fred Warner (LB) had a bit of a down year. He is still arguably the Niners’ 2nd best defender & the best coverage LB in football. Fred is also an ironman, having missed just 1 game in his entire NFL career – 1 sack, 4 PBUs, 1 FF, 7 TFLs, 3 QB hits & 79 tackles.
MLB Fred Warner finishes his fourth regular season as both the 12th best LB in the NFL in Tackles and PFF Grade. He had 137 Tackles which is an incredible number of tackles but there are many tackle machines nowadays. LB Patrick Willis had 101 Tackles in 15 games his 4th season pic.twitter.com/88bZln82oy
— 49er_Edits (@49er_edits) January 11, 2022
Jimmie Ward (FS) is one of the best tackling & man cover Safeties in the league. 2 INTs, 6 PBUs, 1 TFL & 77 tackles.
Jimmie Ward finished the season ranked 1st in tackling grade and 2nd in run defense grade among all qualifying safeties
— Jordan Elliott (@splash_cousin) January 13, 2022
The duo of Ward & Jaquiski Tartt is underrated for so many reasons, but maybe none bigger than their ability to erase opponents when tackling in the open field
Emmanuel Moseley has become the Niners’ best CB & one the better ones in the league. 1 INT, 11 PBUs, 2 TFLs & 42 tackles.
Emmanuel Moseley finished the regular season by allowing just 28 receiving yards per game pic.twitter.com/cCAiliAYbF
— Coach Yac ? (@Coach_Yac) January 13, 2022
Azeez Al Shaair (LB) has struggled with several injuries. Arguably, his performance as a blitzer & run stuffer (1 INT, 2 sacks, 5 PBUs, 1 FF, 9 TFLs, 2 QB hits & 102 tackles) has been better than Warner and he’s been healthy this season.
96 Tackles
— Javier Vega (@JavierVeg_) December 15, 2021
9 TFL
1.5 Sacks
1 INT
5 PBU
1 FF
2 FR
Azeez Al- Shaair is having a Pro-Bowl level season. #ProBowlVote @A_train2_ pic.twitter.com/WPZc4dCmu3
Arik Armstead DT was 3rd highest rated run-stuffing DT & one of the better pass rushing DTs too (6 sacks, 7 TFLs, 11 QB hits & 63 tackles).
DeMeco Ryans credited Arik Armstead moving inside as one the main reasons — along with D.J. Jones' effectiveness (led NFL w/48 percent run stop win rate) — as why the 49ers' run defense has been so effective
— Jake Hutchinson (@hutchdiesel) January 13, 2022
DJ Jones (DT) was the highest rated run-stuffing DT in the league & an underrated pass rusher (2 sacks, 1 PBU, 2 FF, 10 TFLs, 3 QB hits & 56 tackles).
? Re-sign DJ Jones!
— Coach Yac ? (@Coach_Yac) January 12, 2022
He’s been one of the best interior linemen in the league. Take a look at his numbers for the season:
• 43 solo tackles
• 10 tackles for loss
• 18 pressures
• 40 stops
• 2 sacks
• 2 forced fumbles pic.twitter.com/W2clj5En2B
Arden Key (DE/DT) took a while to find his niche, which was in DeMeco’s Nascar package, lining up at DT vs Gs. Since then, he had 6 sacks, 13 QB hits & at least 27 pressures in just 10 games.
Total season = 6.5 sacks, 1 PBU, 5 TFLs, 17 QB hits & 22 tackles.
Arden Key on rushing on the inside:
— Jake Hutchinson (@hutchdiesel) January 13, 2022
"I'm liking it, I'm loving it."
K’waun Williams is one of the best Nickle CBs in the league – solid coverage, sure tackling & an elite blitzer (1 INT, 1 sack, 4 PBUs, 1 FF, 5 TFLs, 2 QB hits & 52 tackles).
K'Waun Williams is such a huge loss. Kupp is ballin’
— OurSF49ers (@OurSf49ers) January 9, 2022
Jaquiski Tartt (SS) is very good defending both the pass & the run. He’s very fast for his size & is a thumper (1 PBU, 5 TFLs, 1 QB hit & 66 tackles).
49ers defense since 2019 when Jaquiski Tartt plays 50% or more of the defensive snaps :
— Jordan Elliott (@splash_cousin) December 17, 2021
PPG – 19.6
Total Yards Allowed per Game – 290.2
Passing Yards Allowed per Game -178.9
• When he doesn’t •
PPG – 26.4
Total Yards per Game – 331.5
Passing Yards per Game – 222.3
Dre Greenlaw (LB) has been injured for most of the 2021 season. He had a pick 6 at the Lions & looked super fresh & aggressive at the Rams (maybe a little too aggressive!).
Dre Greenlaw, AKA Mike Tyson, laying the wood on this one. Old school football fans will appreciate this style of football, as it's important for the other team to know they'll get wrecked if they come across the middle of the field. It's a mentality. pic.twitter.com/wdxAzQHTdC
— 49ers_Film (@49ers_Film) January 13, 2022
Ambry Thomas (CB) sat out the 2020 season at the University of Michigan and had a slow start. After shaking off the rust, Ambry played very well vs Texans & at Rams.
AMBRY THOMAS CALLED GAME!@Tavonn_#BEATLA pic.twitter.com/1mWUe2e9nn
— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) January 10, 2022
Listing 4 D Linemen + 3 LBs + 5 DBs may seem to be a bit excessive. If they are all able to get healthy, it will become crystal clear why I did so. I believe that this 2021 Niners playoffs D can be better than the Niners 2019 playoffs D, which was missing: DJ Jones, Ronald Blair, Julian Taylor, Damontre Moore & Kwon Alexander + Dee Ford, who wasn’t his usual self. They don’t have DeFo & Ford, but Bosa is playing better & Key has replaced Ford’s production. Ward, Warner & Greenlaw have all improved. Al Shaair & Mosely have improved greatly & AA is playing better at DT. This D Line is much deeper & it looks like Mo Hurst will play too. He is a very good run stuffing DT. Both Ds had the same number of Sacks = 48, but 2019 D started off with a bang & ended with whimper, while 2021 D started slowly & caught fire down the stretch!
The final regular season tally…
— David Lombardi (@LombardiHimself) January 12, 2022
2019 49ers sacks: 48
2021 49ers sacks: 48
COWBOYS OFFENSE:
Tyron Smith is top 3 LT – in good company with Trent W & David Bahktiari (Packers).
La’el Colins is one of the best RTs in football.
Zack Martin RG is a top 3 G in the league.
#49ers Nick Bosa calls #Cowboys O-tackles 'very solid' and Tyron Smith HOF caliber.
— Cam Inman (@CamInman) January 14, 2022
“But they’re definitely beatable. There’s tape on them getting beat and we’re trying to do the same. They’ve definitely been in and out of the lineup a lot this year and past years."
Dak Prescott QB had a great 2020 – A 68.8% completion rate for 4449 yards, 37 TDs & 12 INTs, 7.5 YPA, 104.2 passer rating! & 54.9 QBR
Dak Prescott's final 2021 regular season ranks, efficiency/accuracy metrics:
— David Lombardi (@LombardiHimself) January 12, 2022
EFF
Net yds/att: #6
ANY/A: #7
Rating: #3
QBR: #9
EPA/play: #11
Success rate: #10
ACCURACY
CPOE: #9
CPAE: #6
NEG PLAYS
INT%: #8
Sack%: #6
STYLE
Intended air yds: #16
Comp air yds: #13
TTT: #12
CeeDee Lamb is arguably the Cowboys best WR for his yards & the 2nd best 2nd year WR, after Justin Jefferson (Vikings) – 79 receptions for 1109 yards = 13.9 yards per reception & 6 receiving TDs + 9 carries for 76 yards (I believe that Aiyuk would be better, if he had 120 targets, instead of only 84 for 56 catches for 827 yards = 14.8 yards per reception & 5 TDs).
Amari Cooper is solid WR1 & is also arguably the Cowboys best WR for his TDs – 68 catches for 865 yards = 12.7 yards per reception & 8 receiving TDs
Michael Gallup (WR) probably won’t play, but he could be WR1 on many teams- in just 8 games, he had 35 catches for 445 yards = 12.7 yards per reception.
Cedric Wilson (WR) is no slouch with 45 catches for 602 yards = 13.4 yards per reception & 6 receiving TDs
Daltron Shultz TE had a breakout season – 78 catches for 808 yards = 10.8 yards per reception & 8 receiving TDs
Blake Jarwin TE was injured for most of the season, but on just 11 catches he had 96 yards & 2 TDs
Lamb, Cooper, Shultz, Wilson & Jarwin make any DC’s job of trying to stop them a complete nightmare!
Zeke Elliott RB is not what he once was, but he is still a very talented runner – 237 carries for 1002 yards = 4.2 yards per carry & 10 rushing TDS + 47 catches for 287 yards = 6.1 yards per reception & 2 receiving TDs = 1289 total yards & 12 total TDs
Tony Pollard is great RB2. 130 carries for 719 yards = a whopping 5.5 yards per carry & 2 rushing TDs + 39 catches for 339 yards = 8.6 yards per reception & 0 TDS = over 1000 total yards
The Cowboys offense is fearsome in every way.
COWBOYS DEFENSE:
Micah Parsons LB/DE is only rookie, but he’s already in the DPOY conversation & DROY should be shoe in. 13 sacks, 20 TFLs, 30 QB hits & 84 tackles, an absolute monster. One way to neutralize speedy LBs, is to run right at them, rather than trying to run away from them. Got the most votes of LB for All Pro honors.
#49ers OC McDaniel on Cowboys' Micah Parsons:
— Cam Inman (@CamInman) January 13, 2022
'It is first time I've got to study him. I’m alive, so I’ve heard about him, & he’s been noisy this year, & it’s very, very impressive. Great match working with Dan Quinn & they’re getting a ton out of him. He’s a multi-tool defender"
Trevon Diggs CB just set a record for most INTs in 2021 with 11 (2 pick 6s), with 21 PBUs, He also had 52 tackles. The good news is that like most ball hawks, Diggs gives up almost as many big plays as he creates, when he doesn’t make the interception.
Yards After Catch Allowed, CBs, 2021:
— Akash Anavarathan (@akashanav) January 12, 2022
3. Trevon Diggs, 425
7. Jourdan Lewis, 326
13. Anthony Brown, 300
Cowboys’ DBs have given up 1,051 yards after the catch this season.
Guess which team they play this week…
DeMarcus Lawrence (DE) only played 7 games, but had 3 sacks, 5 TFLs, 7 QB hits & 21 tackles – He is still to be feared.
Randy Gregory (DE) only played 12 games but got 6 sacks, 4 TFLs, 17 QB hits & 19 tackles.
Anthony Brown (CB) had 3 INTs, 1 FF & 71 tackles.
Damontae Kazee (FS) had 2 INTs & 2 FF & 52 tackles.
Jayron Kearse (SS) was out with Covid, but is back & is very good in pass defense – 2 INTs, 9 TFLs, 6 QB hits & 101 tackles.
Keanu Neal (LB) was out vs Eagles & did not practice this week. It’s still TBD if he will play or not. His absence would be a big loss for the Cowboys D – his 1 sack, 4 TFLs, 2 QB hits & 72 tackles will be missed.
Leighton Vander Esch (LB) has 1 sack, 4 TFLs, 1 QB hit & 77 tackles.
The Cowboys D is #1 vs the pass and #23 vs run.
TED’S TAKEAWAYS
The Cowboys are 12-5 & the Niners are 10-7, but Dallas plays in the NFC (L)east, which is one of the easier divisions where they play the Giants twice & the WFT twice. Their best wins were vs a floundering Cards team (11-6) that didn’t have D Hop or JJ Watt, at the Patriots (10-7) who have a rookie QB & the Eagles twice (9-8) (the most recent one Hurts didn’t play). Other less impressive wins include: at the Chargers (9-8), at the Vikings (8-9) & at the Saints (9-8).
https://twitter.com/GoCalBears10/status/1481679762385178624?s=20
The Niners play in the NFC West which has arguably the toughest division for the last 3 seasons & the only division to have 3 teams make the 2021 playoffs. Signature wins include: The AFC North Champion Bengals (10-7) & the NFC West champion Rams twice (12-5). Less impressive wins include: Eagles (9-8), Vikings (8-9) & Falcons (7-10). While they weren’t wins, the Niners barely lost at the 12-5 AFC South champ Titans (travel + TNF) & vs the NFC North champ 13-4 Packers, both on last second FGs.
49ers 2-4 vs nfc west 8-3 vs everyone else.
— Dan LaRoy (@LaroyDan) January 13, 2022
The Niners got hot down the stretch & are now looking as if they might get healthy too. This is very bad news for the Cowboys, or any other team, that has the misfortune of having to face them, in the playoffs. the Cowboys on the other hand are missing some key players & LT Tyron Smith is Q & the Cowboys sputtered down the stretch, as Dak nursed a strained calf.
Both teams have very good pass blocking, in 5-8 range, but the Cowboys run blocking is #1, while Niners run blocking is more in the 3-6 range. Keep in mind that these rankings are for the entire 2021 season, so they may not accurately reflect recent changes.
Final trench measures for each team pic.twitter.com/7Qe4LuoSS5
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) January 12, 2022
The Niners have the #1 run D, since their week 6 bye & #2 run D for the season & it should be even better this Sunday, The Cowboys have the #23 run D, largely due to their DTs & DBs.
Cowboys secondary and their individual run defense grades (per PFF)
— Jordan Elliott (@splash_cousin) January 13, 2022
Trevon Diggs – 81st (out of 82 CBs)
Anthony Brown – 47th (out of 82 CBs)
Jourdan Lewis – 70th (out of 82 CBs)
Jayron Kearse – 26th (out of 64 S)
Damontae Kazee – 51st (out of 64 S)
The Niners pass D ranks around 6th. All of our LBs & DBs have not been healthy since Key broke out at DT. Ambry Thomas just broke out vs Texans, so Sunday’s performance looks promising.
The Niners have played better on the road this season & so has Dallas. The game will likely come down to the Niners’ run game. If Trent W, Tartt (or Huf), K’waun & Al Shaair (or Marcell) all can play & they can run it well (play BullyBall) & play good D like they have lately, then they should win. Running right has hurt the Cowboys:
Teams have punished Dallas running to right side… That's the weakness in the Death Star.
— David Lombardi (@LombardiHimself) January 11, 2022
Right tackle: 4.95 adj line yards (#31)
Right end: 5.83 adj line yards (#27)
If 49ers can earn right to run at volume — up to pass pro/Garoppolo — Compton/Brunskill should be at home
Especially, since the Niners are #1 in gaining explosive plays & the Dallas d is #28 in giving them up. If SF can’t run it well or if Dallas jumps out to an early lead, then I don’t like the Niners’ chances, especially if they have to rely on Jimmy G’s arm to win the game. We saw him do this a few times at the Rams. Sadly, he was unable to do it for the whole game let alone an entire half. Cowboys pass D is #2 DVOA & #1 in takeaways with 34.
Dallas defense…
— David Lombardi (@LombardiHimself) January 13, 2022
1) Yards/play allowed: #21
2) Explosive play% allowed: #28
3) Takeaways: #1
4) DVOA: #2
#3 is effectively negating #1 and #2 to create #4. For the 49ers: Limit the busts (giveaways), and the booms should be there for the taking against the Cowboys
We haven’t really seen the Niners D be fully healthy, so they might be able to shut down the vaunted Cowboys O the same way that they did to the Rams. Dallas has more weapons, a better run game & Dak is better than Stafford, so that seems less likely.
PREDICTION:
As of now, I’m predicting that the Niners will stampede the Cowboys. As usual, please keep an eye out for my official score prediction, about an hour before kickoff, once we know exactly who will play & who won’t.
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