Well, yesterday’s game was a bad showing by the 49ers, losing to the Arizona Cardinals 31-17, despite the Cardinals being without star players Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins, A.J. Green, & J.J. Watt, so today I think we should take a look into the 49ers future, long term.
In this article I want to take a look at the players I feel are a part of the 49ers future, either long term, or immediate future, and players who could be, along with players that aren’t the answer.
But first, let’s take a look at 2022, where I currently have the 49ers with 32 players under contract, totaling $195,150,254 in committed salaries, with $4,686,072 in dead money, which would leave them with $8,363,674 in cap room if the cap hits the agreed upon ceiling of $208.2 million, but due them only having 32 players signed, the real cap room, once they have 51 players signed, would actually have them over by at minimum of $5,031,326, due to 19 players counting the league minimum of $705,000, which is a loss of $13.395 million.
Now, as I’ve said before, I expect 4 49ers players from the 2019 draft class to see their base salaries escalate to the projected original round tender, which is projected by OverTheCap to be $2.396 million, those players being wide receiver Deebo Samuel, defensive end Charles Omenihu, weakside linebacker Dre Greenlaw, & punter Mitch Wishnowsky, which, would add an additional $4,644,360 in committed salaries, putting the 49ers $9,675,686 over a $208.2 million 2022 cap.
Now, Omenihu, Greenlaw, & Wishnowsky are already guaranteed to get the escalations, this is due to the PPE, short for Proven Performance Escalator, since all 3 were drafted from rounds 3-7, they only needed to participate in 35% of their teams offensive, defensive, or special teams snaps in 2 of their first 3 seasons, or a total of 35% over their first 3 years, and all 3 hit at least 35% in 2 of their first 3 seasons, so they’re guaranteed to see their base salaries escalate.
Now, Greenlaw could have seen $250,000 extra had he been able to play in 55% of the 49ers defensive snaps each of his first 3 seasons, but due to his injury, that won’t happen, as his playing time percentage is just 6.9%, so he won’t see that extra $250,000.
As for Deebo Samuel, he, as a 2nd-round pick, needs to play in at least 60% of the 49ers offensive snaps to see his base salary escalate, he played 67% of the 49ers offensive snaps in 2019, he didn’t reach it in 2020 due to injuries, but in 2021, he’s at 84.8%, which means if he keeps healthy, he’ll hit the PPE escalation, but due to him having a $50,000 workout bonus in 2022, his base salary would only be $2.346 million, $50,000 less due to the workout bonus, as that’s considered as salary.
Now, if Deebo, who deserves this, makes the pro bowl, he’ll be eligible for the 2nd-round tender, which is projected to be $3.927 million, but again, $50,000 less, making it $3.877 million, meaning an extra $1.531 million in cap room used up, so the 49ers could end up as much as $11,206,686 over the 2022 cap, if it’s $208.2 million.
Now, obviously the 49ers will move on Jimmy Garoppolo, while I’m a huge supporter of his, and he had some good plays, he didn’t look good, he looked down Deebo, which resulted in an interception, clinching the game for the Cardinals, so if/when the 49ers release/trade him, they’ll free up $24.845 million, which would put them at $13,638,314 under the 2022 cap, which is a good starting point.
Now, when it comes to their pending free agents, let’s take a look at them as of now, all 49, but note that 18 of them are on the practice squad.
UFA:
RB Raheem Mostert
RB Jeff Wilson Jr.
RB Trenton Cannon
WR Travis Benjamin
WR Mohamed Sanu Sr.
WR Trent Sherfield
WR Richie James Jr.
TE Ross Dwelley
C Jake Brendel
LG Laken Tomlinson
RG/RT Tom Compton
DE Arden Key
DE Jordan Willis
DT Maurice Hurst Jr.
NT D.J. Jones
WLB Marcell Harris
CB Jason Verrett
CB K’Waun Williams
CB Josh Norman
CB Dontae Johnson
CB Dre Kirkpartrick
FS Tarvarius Moore
FS Tavon Wilson
SS Jaquiski Tartt
RFA:
RG Daniel Brunskill
DT Kentavius Street
SLB Azeez Al-Shaair
ERFA:
RB JaMycal Hasty
WR Jauan Jennings
DT Kevin Givens
SLB Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles
Practice Squad FAs:
QB Nate Sudfeld
FB Josh Hokit
WR River Cracraft
WR Connor Wedington
WR Austin Watkins Jr.
TE Tanner Hudson
TE Jordan Matthews
C Jon Halapio
LG Colton McKivitz
RT Alfredo Gutierrez
DE Alex Barrett
NT Darrion Daniels
MLB Tyrell Adams
SLB Christian Elliss
CB Davontae Harris
FS Tony Jefferson II
FS Will Parks
FS Kai Nacua
Now, let’s look at the teams RFAs, ERFAs, & practice squad FAs.
For the RFAs, I’d expect the team to re-sign Brunskill, Street, & Al-Shaair to 1-year deals, worth less than the $2.396 million original round tender, likely in the $1.5 million range, with little to no guaranteed money.
ERFA wise, these are simple, they can’t go anywhere else, unless not tendered, so I’d expect them to tender all 4, with Hasty, Givens, & Flannigan-Fowles getting $895,000, and Jennings $825,000
As for the practice squaders, I think the most likely players to get reserve/future deals are, Hokit, Cracraft, Wedington, Watkins, Hudson, Halapio, McKivitz, Barrett, Daniels, Elliss, Harris, & Nacua, with them getting either 1 or 2 year deals, with no guaranteed money.
As for the prices, they should qualify for the following for 2022.
FB Josh Hokit – $705,000
WR River Cracraft – $895,000
WR Connor Wedington – $705,000
WR Austin Watkins Jr. – $705,000
TE Tanner Hudson – $895,000
C Jon Halapio – $965,000
LG Colton McKivitz – $825,000
RT Alfredo Gutierrez – $705,000
DE Alex Barrett – $825,000
NT Darrion Daniels – $825,000
SLB Christian Elliss – $705,000
CB Davontae Harris – $965,000
FS Kai Nacua – $895,000
That’s a total of $10.615 million, while the 4 ERFAs add up to $3.51 million, for a total of $14.125 million, for 17 players, with 3 additional players getting the rookie minimum of $705,000, leaving the 49ers $7,876,326 over the cap, add in the projected PPE escalators, they’d be either $12,520,686 over, if Deebo doesn’t make the pro bowl, or $12,770,686 over if Deebo does make the pro bowl.
So, then the 49ers, when releasing or trading Garoppolo, saving the $24.845 million, would have either $12,324,314 in salary cap room if Deebo doesn’t make the pro bowl, or $10,793,314 if Deebo makes the pro bowl, and the reason I’m adding the ERFAs, and potential reserve/future deals for the practice squaders is because they’ll be signed & tendered before free agency opens up, making up most, if not all of the remaining players needed to get to 51 players for the top 51 rule that is used in the offseason.
Ok, now, say Brunskill, Street, & Al-Shaair do get 1-year deals, worth max $1.5 million, that’s $4.5 million, but subtract the 3 hypothetical players making the league minimum, then that would be $2.385 million in cap room used.
So, they’d now be either $10,684,902 under if Deebo doesn’t make the pro bowl or $9,153,902 if Deebo makes the pro bowl, under the 2022 salary cap, with the following 51 players signed, including their salary cap hits.
QB Trey Lance(2024) – $7,751,195
RB Trey Sermon(2024) – $1,107,485
RB Elijah Mitchell(2024) – $870,893
RB JaMycal Hasty(2022) – $895,000
FB Kyle Juszyzck(2025) – $2,958,750
FB Josh Hokit(2023) – $705,000
WR Brandon Aiyuk(2023) – $3,417,641
WR Deebo Samuel(2022) – $3,300,519 ($4,831,519 if he makes the pro bowl)
WR Jalen Hurd(2022) – $1,361,717
WR Jauan Jennings(2022) – $825,000
WR Connor Wedington(2023) – $705,000
WR Austin Watkins Jr.(2023) – $705,000
WR River Cracraft(2022)- $895,000
TE George Kittle(2025) – $16,011,765
TE Charlie Woerner(2023) – $940,258
TE Tanner Hudson(2022) – $895,000
C Alex Mack(2023) – $6,725,000
C Jon Halapio(2022) – $965,000
LG Colton McKivitz(2023) – $825,000
RG Aaron Banks(2024) – $1,607,638
RG Daniel Brunskill(2022) – $1,500,000
LT Trent Williams(2026) – $14,075,882
LT Jaylon Moore(2024) – $905,759
RT Mike McGlinchey(2022) – $10,808,000
RT Justin Skule(2022) – $1,009,887
RT Alfredo Gutierrez(2023) – $705,000
DE Nick Bosa(2022) – $10,805,564
DE Arik Armstead(2024) – $20,000,000
DE Dee Ford(2022) – $11,909,997
DE Samson Ebukam(2022) – $8,250,000
DE Charles Omenihu(2022) – $2,396,000
DE Alex Barrett(2023) – $825,000
DT Javon Kinlaw(2023) – $4,224,191
DT Kentavius Street(2022) – $1,500,000
DT Kevin Givens(2022) – $895,000
NT Darrion Daniels(2023) – $825,000
WLB Dre Greenlaw(2022) – $2,726,429
MLB Fred Warner(2026) – $8,164,000
SLB Azeez Al-Shaair(2022) – $1,500,000
SLB Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles(2022) – $895,000
SLB Christian Elliss(2023) – $705,000
CB Emmanuel Moseley(2022) – $6,673,176
CB Ambry Thomas(2024) – $1,087,693
CB Deommodore Lenoir(2024) – $896,217
CB Davontae Harris(2023) – $965,000
FS Jimmie Ward(2022) – $12,965,000
FS Kai Nacua(2022) – $895,000
SS Talanoa Hufanga(2024) – $885,038
PK Robbie Gould(2022) – $5,509,313
P Mitch Wishnowsky(2022) – $2,587,018
LS Taybor Pepper(2022) – $1,120,000
Now, we need to talk about the teams UFAs, with honestly, only a few players worth of multi-year deals, those being left guard Laken Tomlinson, nose tackle D.J. Jones, & cornerback K’Waun Williams.
I would peg these players as follows.
For K’Waun Williams, let’s take a look at some comps of the top paid slot cornerbacks below.
Kenny Moore II of the Indianapolis Colts at $8.325 million a year, with $18.25 million guaranteed, $9 million fully guaranteed, at age 26.
Bryce Callahan of the Denver Broncos at $6 million a year, with $3.5 million guaranteed, all fully guaranteed, at age 30.
Jonathan Jones of the New England Patriots at $7 million a year, with $13 million guaranteed, $11.995 million fully guaranteed, at age 28.
Mike Hilton of the Cincinnati Bengals at $6 million a year, with $6 million guaranteed, all fully guaranteed, at age 27.
Desmond King of the Houston Texans at $3 million a year, $500,000 guaranteed, all fully guaranteed, at age 27, but a 1-year deal, likely a prove it deal.
Chris Harris Jr. of the Los Angeles Chargers at $8.5 million a year, with $11.5 million guaranteed, $9.5 million fully guaranteed, at age 32.
Those 6 players, along with K’Waun Williams were among Pro Football Focus’ top 10 slot cornerbacks entering the 2021 season, which can be found here, with Moore at 1, Callahan at 2, Jones at 3, Hitlton at 4, Hill at 5, King at 6, K’Waun at 8, and Harris at 9, while they had Brian Poole at 7, & Nickell Robey-Coleman at 10, with both being on practice squads, Poole on the Patriots, & Robey-Coleman on the Lions.
So, based off these comps, I would put K’Waun at $6 million a year, being as he’s close in age to Bryce Callahan, & Mike Hilton, despite the fact that, in my opinion, K’Waun is really a top 3 slot corner, top 5 at worst, but due to his age, he won’t get the same deals that Kenny Moore II, Jonathan Jones, and even Chris Harris Jr. got.
So, with that said, I would give K’Waun a 3-year deal, worth $18 million, averaging $6 million a year, with $9 million being guaranteed, with likely $5 million fully guaranteed, plus he’d get the other $4 million as injury guaranteed, plus I’d give him yearly $250,000 per game roster bonuses, just like his previous contract extension he signed with the 49ers, and between $50,000 to $100,000 in yearly workout bonuses.
Next up is D.J. Jones, so let’s take a look at some comps of the top paid nose tackles below.
Kenny Clark of the Green Bay Packers at $17.5 million a year, with $25 million guaranteed, all fully guaranteed, at age 26.
Grady Jarrett of the Atlanta Falcons at $17 million a year, with $42.5 million guaranteed, $38 million fully guaranteed, at age 28.
Javon Hargrave of the Philadelphia Eagles at $13 million a year, with $26 million guaranteed, all fully guaranteed, at age 28.
Akiem Hicks of the Chicago Bears at $12 million a year, with $30 million guaranteed, $22 million fully guaranteed, at age 32.
Eddie Goldman of the Chicago Bears at $10.51 million a year, with $25 million guaranteed, $17.25 million fully guaranteed, at age 27.
Shelby Harris of the Denver Broncos at $9 million a year, with $15 million guaranteed, all fully guaranteed, at age 30.
Michael Pierce of the Minnesota Vikings at $9 million a year, with $18 million guaranteed, $9 million fully guaranteed, at age 29.
Linval Joseph of the Los Angeles Chargers at $8.5 million a year, with $8 million guaranteed, all fully guaranteed, at age 33.
Poona Ford of the Seattle Seahawks at $6,172,500 a year, with $7.5 million guaranteed, all fully guaranteed, at age 26.
So, with the above comps, I give D.J. Jones a 5-year deal, worth $30 million, averaging $6 million a year, with $10 million guaranteed, with $5 million fully guaranteed, along with yearly per game roster bonuses of $250,000, and yearly workout bonuses between $50,000 to $100,000.
Finally, we have Laken Tomlinson, this one is the easiest for me, as I would give Tomlinson a 4-year deal, worth $22 million, averaging $5.5 million a year, with $12 million guaranteed, $6.5 million fully guaranteed, yearly per game roster bonuses of $400,000, and yearly workout bonuses between $50,000 to $100,000.
As for what they may cost in 2022 cap wise, I’d expect the 49ers to backload these 3 deals, if they were to happen of course, with cap numbers being $2.5 million for K’Waun Williams, $3 million for Laken Tomlinson, and $2.5 million for D.J. Jones, totaling $8 million, but after the top 51 rule, it’d be a loss of $5.885 million, giving them either $4,799,902 in cap room if Deebo doesn’t make the pro bowl, or $3,268,902 if Deebo makes the pro bowl.
Now, let’s look at the 54 players that would be signed for the 49ers in 2022, with their cap numbers.
QB Trey Lance(2024) – $7,751,195
RB Trey Sermon(2024) – $1,107,485
RB Elijah Mitchell(2024) – $870,893
RB JaMycal Hasty(2022) – $895,000
FB Kyle Juszyzck(2025) – $2,958,750
FB Josh Hokit(2023) – $705,000
WR Brandon Aiyuk(2023) – $3,417,641
WR Deebo Samuel(2022) – $3,300,519 ($4,831,519 if he makes the pro bowl)
WR Jalen Hurd(2022) – $1,361,717
WR Jauan Jennings(2022) – $825,000
WR Connor Wedington(2023) – $705,000
WR Austin Watkins Jr.(2023) – $705,000
WR River Cracraft(2022)- $895,000
TE George Kittle(2025) – $16,011,765
TE Charlie Woerner(2023) – $940,258
TE Tanner Hudson(2022) – $895,000
C Alex Mack(2023) – $6,725,000
C Jon Halapio(2022) – $965,000
LG Laken Tomlinson(2025) – $3,000,000
LG Colton McKivitz(2023) – $825,000
RG Aaron Banks(2024) – $1,607,638
RG Daniel Brunskill(2022) – $1,500,000
LT Trent Williams(2026) – $14,075,882
LT Jaylon Moore(2024) – $905,759
RT Mike McGlinchey(2022) – $10,808,000
RT Justin Skule(2022) – $1,009,887
RT Alfredo Gutierrez(2023) – $705,000
DE Nick Bosa(2022) – $10,805,564
DE Arik Armstead(2024) – $20,000,000
DE Dee Ford(2022) – $11,909,997
DE Samson Ebukam(2022) – $8,250,000
DE Charles Omenihu(2022) – $2,396,000
DE Alex Barrett(2023) – $825,000
DT Javon Kinlaw(2023) – $4,224,191
DT Kentavius Street(2022) – $1,500,000
DT Kevin Givens(2022) – $895,000
NT D.J. Jones(2026) – $2,500,000
NT Darrion Daniels(2023) – $825,000
WLB Dre Greenlaw(2022) – $2,726,429
MLB Fred Warner(2026) – $8,164,000
SLB Azeez Al-Shaair(2022) – $1,500,000
SLB Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles(2022) – $895,000
SLB Christian Elliss(2023) – $705,000
CB Emmanuel Moseley(2022) – $6,673,176
CB K’Waun Williams(2024) – $2,500,000
CB Ambry Thomas(2024) – $1,087,693
CB Deommodore Lenoir(2024) – $896,217
CB Davontae Harris(2023) – $965,000
FS Jimmie Ward(2022) – $12,965,000
FS Kai Nacua(2022) – $895,000
SS Talanoa Hufanga(2024) – $885,038
PK Robbie Gould(2022) – $5,509,313
P Mitch Wishnowsky(2022) – $2,587,018
LS Taybor Pepper(2022) – $1,120,000
Now, for the rest of the teams UFAs, the only ones who look like they could be back are, wide receivers Mohamed Sanu Sr, & Trent Sherfield, tight end Ross Dwelley, center Jake Brendel, defensive ends Arden Key, & Jordan Willis, defensive tackle Maurice Hurst Jr., weakside linebacker Marcell Harris, & free safety Tarvarius Moore.
But none of these guys should get more than the league minimum to $1.5 million.
I think it would be safe to say that Sanu, Sherfield, Brendel, & Willis would sign 1-year deals, worth the league minimum, likely veteran benefit deals, that only count $895,000 against the cap.
As for Moore, I’d give him the Fourth Year Qualifying Contract benefit deal, where he’d get a $2.37 million base salary, while only $1.12 million would count, with a $152,500 signing bonus, while only counting $1,272,500 against the salary cap.
I could see Dwelley, Key, Hurst, & Harris looking for that $1.5 million, something I’d be ok with, if there’s little guaranteed money.
While the following UFAs should not be brought back in my opinion, wide receivers Travis Benjamin, & Richie James Jr., right guard Tom Compton, cornerbacks Josh Norman, Dre Kirkpatrick, & Dontae Johnson, & free safety Tavon Wilson.
And as for the rest, the likes of running backs Raheem Mostert & Jeff Wlson Jr., cornerback Jason Verrett, & strong safety Jaquiski Tartt, these could be toss-ups, with the injuries to Mostert, & Verrett, they’d likely have to take 1-year prove it deals, but, with the emergence of Elijah Mitchell, and the fact Mostert asked for a raise in 2020, I doubt he comes back.
For Verrett, he’s going to have to take a 1-year prove it deal, I don’t see anyone offering him a multi-year deal, or any deal over the league minimum.
When it comes to Wilson, & Tartt, it depends on health, plus play, we didn’t see Wilson in the game yesterday, he had signed a 1-year, fully guaranteed $2.05 million deal in the offseason, but tore his meniscus in the offseason, I’d love to see him back, if fully healthy.
As for Tartt, if the team doesn’t believe Talanoa Hufanga is ready to be the teams starting strong safety in 2022, then they’ll have to bring back Tartt, or find someone else, a veteran most likely.
Ok, now let’s talk extensions, I already had my Deebo Samuel article post earlier, where I said he could get a deal averaging $15 million a year, this will depend on him staying healthy, and continuing producing like he is.
What I would do, is take Deebo’s new base salary, lower it to the minimum of $965,000, use a little cap room, give him a $12 million signing bonus, so his cap number goes up by around only $1.019 million, if he doesn’t make the pro bowl, while they’d save a bit under $1 million if he makes the pro bowl.
Next up is Dre Greenlaw, who I would give a 5-year deal, worth $51.25 million, averaging $10.25 million a year, while also doing the same thing I would do with Deebo, by lowering Greenlaw’s base salary to $965,000, while giving him a $8 million signing bonus, which would only take up around $569,000 in salary cap room.
Finally, we have Nick Bosa, who I would give a 5-year deal, worth an average of $30 million a year, with again like with Deebo, & Greenlaw, only by taking his $4,305,525 training camp roster bonus, turning it into a signing bonus, $30 million, which prorates at $6 million, meaning his salary cap number would go up by only $1,694,475.
After these extensions, the 49ers would be at $1,917,127 under the 2022 salary cap whether or not Deebo makes or doesn’t make the pro bowl.
Now, that’s nowhere near enough cap room to sign anyone else, or their draft picks, but they have several ways of creating cap room.
They have 2 players that really need to step up, and show they deserve to be around in 2022, defensive end Samson Ebukam, and cornerback Emmanuel Moseley.
If the 49ers were to release Ebukam, they’d save $5.795 million after factoring in the top 51 rule, and $4,236,176 by releasing Moseley, but note that Moseley has his $4.4 million base salary guaranteed for injury, becoming fully guaranteed on April 1, 2022.
If they were to release both, their new salary cap room would be $11,948,303.
Now, if they both show up, and end up getting new deals, they could save up-to $4.372 million from Ebukam, and up-to $2.692 million from Moseley, which would give the team $8,981,127 in cap room.
They could also restructure the contracts of George Kittle, & Arik Armstead, which could save the team as much as $8.332 million from Kittle, & $10.424 million from Armstead.
They also have to make a decision on Dee Ford, who is due to a $4.6 million roster bonus, that is guaranteed for injury, which is due within the first 5 days of the new waiver period, which begins the day after the super bowl.
If the 49ers decide to not pay him the $4.6 million roster bonus, they would end up saving $1,385,001 after factoring in the top 51 rule.
When it comes to the teams offseason needs, they clearly need a true number 1 cornerback, they need proper interior defensive line depth, as well as linebacker depth, plus they need to find a real #3 wide receiver, if Omenihu, Ford, or Ebukam don’t work out, then they need to find another EDGE rusher, as well as find a veteran quarterback to play behind & mentor Trey Lance, and I also believe they need to look into getting a proper #2 tight end, now I’m not saying all of these need to free agents or draft picks, honestly, they need to be a mixture of both, but I wouldn’t go crazy in free agency, as that rarely works out for the teams who “win” the offseason, only to not win the big one.
Next, I want to go over, is, who I believe are players the team should build this team around or players who should be a part of the teams plans, either in the long term, or immediate future.
Long Term:
QB Trey Lance
RB Elijah Mitchell
RB Trey Sermon
FB Kyle Juszczyk
WR Deebo Samuel
WR Brandon Aiyuk
TE George Kittle
TE Charlie Woerner
RG Aaron Banks
LT Trent Williams
LT Jaylon Moore
DE Nick Bosa
DE Arik Armstead
DT Javon Kinlaw
NT D.J. Jones
WLB Dre Greenlaw
MLB Fred Warner
SLB Azeez Al-Shaair
CB Ambry Thomas
CB Deommodore Lenoir
SS Talanoa Hufanga
P Mitch Wishnowsky
Short Term:
C Alex Mack
LG Laken Tomnlinson
CB K’Waun Williams
FS Jimmie Ward
Potential Long Term:
RB JaMycal Hasty
WR Jauan Jennings
RG Daniel Brunskill
RT Mike McGlinchey
DE Samson Ebukam
DE Charles Omenihu
DT Kentavius Street
DT Kevin Givens
NT Darrion Daniels
CB Emmanuel Moseley
FS Tarvarius Moore
LS Taybor Pepper
I need to point out that if for some reason the 49ers either claim, or sign wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr., I will update this article.
Now, the last thing I want to say is, I’m in no way giving up on 2021, I believe in this team, I believe in Kyle Shanahan, John Lynch, the coaching staff, and the players, with some luck, this team could, and hopefully will turn it around, but they need to play the young guys, like Trey Sermon, Aaron Banks, Ambry Thomas, & Deommodore Lenoir, get them experience, and hope these position groups improve.
And, with all of this said, I thank everyone for reading article, as always you can follow me on Twitter @49erscap, or leave a comment below, and I’ll get back to you.
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