So, with the season only 6 weeks old, and the 49ers on a 3-game losing streak, many fans are very unhappy, pointing fingers at general manager John Lynch, and head coach Kyle Shanahan for not bringing in certain players, namely Stephon Gilmore, & Odell Beckham Jr., while also being unhappy with injuries, despite the fact that both Gilmore, & Beckham are coming off serious injuries, and the fact that the 49ers don’t have the draft capital or the cap space to bring in either, both for 2021, and long term, so let’s take an objective look at how the 49ers, in my opinion, are doing.
While I’ve been called a homer, I don’t 100% agree with everything that the current regime has done, namely the DeForest Buckner trade, along with paying a lot of money to the likes of Jerick McKinnon, but I do stand by my statement that the 49ers are in a better situation now, than they were back in 2017 when John & Kyle took over.
The biggest issue some fans have with Lynch is his supposed bad drafting, despite the fact that 1. A hit rate of 35% is considered good for a GM, which in my opinion Lynch has done, and 2. The draft is a huge crapshoot, in which most draft picks just don’t see a 2nd contract, but they actually don’t make it past year 3 of their rookie contract.
So, let’s take a look at how, in my opinion, John Lynch has done.
In 2017, it was a bad draft, no doubt about it, but this should be a mulligan, as it was the regimes first draft, but, yes, they missed, badly, with picks like Solomon Thomas, Reuben Foster(despite the fact it was a steal, and Foster ruined his career with off the field issues, similar to Aldon Smith), Ahkello Witherspoon, C.J. Beathard, & Joe Williams.
But, Lynch & Company found one of the best tight ends in the NFL, in 5th rounder George Kittle, plus drafted a solid slot WR Trent Taylor, and current starting nose tackle D.J. Jones.
In 2018 the 49ers ended up with some good picks in my eyes, despite his issues as a pass blocker, Mike McGlinchey has been a top run blocking right tackle, while they found one, if not the best middle linebackers in the NFL in 3rd rounder Fred Warner, plus they got some good depth on defense, in Tarvarius Moore(despite his torn achilles, he had a very good 2019 season), Kentavius Street, & Marcell Harris.
Of course, the Dante Pettis pick was a bad pick, no doubt about it, and while I believe the D.J. Reed Jr., & Jullian Taylor picks were good, unfortunately the 49ers made the mistake of waiving both, of course Taylor to my knowledge isn’t in the NFL anymore, but Reed is a starter for the Seahawks.
Next up is 2019, when the 49ers really nailed on most of their picks in my opinion, getting Nick Bosa, Deebo Samuel, Mitch Wishnowsky, & Dre Greenlaw, 4 players who should be in line for extensions after this season.
Yes, the Jalen Hurd pick looks bad, as he’s yet to see the field for a regular season game, while Justin Skule, Kaden Smith, & Tim Harris Jr. were all 6th-round picks, with Harris gone, and the 49ers also, in my opinion, making the mistake of waiving Smith, despite the fact that they needed to make room in 2019 to sign Jeff Wilson Jr. off their practice squad.
As for 2020 & 2021, honestly, it’s way too early to fully grade these drafts, but, I do believe that the 49ers made the right move by taking Javon Kinlaw, & Brandon Aiyuk in the 1st round of the 2020 draft, as both have contributed, as well as 6th rounder Charlie Woerner, & 7th rounder Jauan Jennings.
As for 2021, again too early, but so far Trey Lance, Trey Sermon, Deeomodore Lenoir, Talanoa Hufanga, & Eijah Mitchell has shown some nice flashes, while Aaron Banks has yet to see the field, while Ambry Thomas has only played 2 games, but not much on defense.
I also liked the Jaylon Moore pick, as he won the swing Tackle spot.
So, if we look at the 49ers picks from just 2017-2019, they had 27 total picks, with, in my opinion, making 13 good picks who are still with the team(Nick Bosa, Deebo Samuel, Mitch Wishnowsky, Dre Greenlaw, Justin Skule, Mike McGlinchey, Fred Warner, Tarvarius Moore, Kentavius Street, Marcell Harris, Richie James Jr., George Kittle, & D.J. Jones), another 4 good picks who are no longer on the team(Kaden Smith, D.J. Reed Jr., Jullian Taylor, & Trent Taylor), while the remaining picks(Jalen Hurd, Tim Harris Jr., Dante Pettis, Solomon Thomas, Reuben Foster, Ahkello Witherspoon, C.J. Beathard, Joe Williams, Pita Taumepenu, & Albert Colbert) being either bad, or not good picks, all of whom are no longer on the team.
So, 12 good picks with the team, plus 4 no longer on the team, would be a hit rate of 59.26%, and even if we took out the 4 no longer on the team, we have a hit rate of 44.44%, which is above the 35% I mentioned before.
And while people want to bash the current picks not playing, like Banks, & Thomas, people need to realize that, again, it takes time to develop players fully, you can’t expect them to come in, and play, let alone play well right away, plus, I doubt Patriots fans are doubting what Bill Belicheck has done, or rather hasn’t done in his drafting, as he’s certainty had a lot of misses in the early rounds.
Yes, I do like to compare the current regime to the previous, as I’d much rather take the cohesiveness of John Lynch & Kyle Shanahan over the dysfunctional duo of Jim Harbaugh & Trent Baalke, both who have no business, in my opinion, of being in those positions within an NFL organization, plus the fact that we don’t see or hear of many, if any, leaks from the current regime, unlike the Baalke/Harbaugh era.
We could also look at what the 49ers have done free agent, and trade wise since Kyle & John took over, like bringing in key players like Trent Williams, Laken Tomlinson, Dee Ford, Kyle Juszyzck, and others, and yes, they’ve had some bad signings, namely Jerick McKinnon, and trading DeForest Buckner, but they’ve done a much better job, in my opinion, than the previous regime did.
And for a fan base that is so sick and tired of injuries happening, me included, it gets tired of seeing the same fans who moan about this, want the 49ers to bring in big named players, who are also injured, or coming off serious injuries, it really makes no sense for fans to clamor for the likes of Stephon Gilmore, or Odell Beckham Jr., both in their 30s, both either making or wanting big money, that the 49ers can’t afford, not when they need to retain their own homegrown talent, it just makes zero sense, especially when the team has no 1st round picks until 2024, and with the fact that the salary cap won’t be going up significantly until 2023 or 2024 at the earliest.
And while I’d love for the 49ers ton add someone, the fact is, they don’t have the ability to do what the Kansas City Chiefs, or others have done, they can’t create cap room out of thin air, as they only have 3 players with salaries high enough to create cap room, Jimmy Garoppolo, Arik Armstead, & Laken Tomlinson, and if they were to end up redoing these guys, it would hurt the cap in the future, as whatever they were to save from a Garoppolo redo would basically end up losing cap room in 2022 if/when they cut ties with him.
And if they redid Armstead & Tomlinson, they’d also lose cap room in 2022, plus had they done a trade like Gilmore, which would have required redoing both of these guys, they would have just around $4 million in cap room for the rest of the season, which isn’t enough cap room to operate for the remainder of the season, and the same can be said for trying to trade for a Odell Beckham Jr., or any other big name who may become available.
So, sometimes the best thing to do, is to stand pat, again, they have little cap room, and they can’t afford to trade away what draft picks they have left, plus they can’t afford to pay these guys the kind of money they want long term, plus keep their own homegrown talent long term, which should be the priority over adding someone who they won’t keep long term.
Plus, the future for the 49ers is very bright, they have their key players locked up long term, the ability to extend their other key players who will become eligible for extensions, they drafted their QB of the future, they have a lot of good young talent, and they have cap health, something they wouldn’t if they decided to go after a big name for the sake of pleasing the fan base.
Finally, I’m in no way acting like this regime is the best that the 49ers have ever seen, clearly it isn’t, they’re not Bill Walsh, but, in my opinion, they’re the best, most non-dysfunctional regime we’ve had since Steve Mariucci was the head coach.
Check back tomorrow as I go over the 49ers 2022 cap situation after the first 6 weeks, spoiler, they’ll be fine, as long as they don’t do something boneheaded, and again, the future is very bright.
And, with all of this said, I thank everyone for reading article, as always you can follow me on Twitter @49erscap, or leave a comment below, and I’ll get back to you.
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