Now that the 49ers have set their initial 53-man roster, I think today would be a good time to take a look at the 49ers 2022 cap situation.
For 2022, the 49ers have 31 players signed, accounting for $192,940,842, with $4,686,072 in dead money, giving them a total commitment of $197,626,914 for 2022.
Below are the 31 players signed, with their 2022 cap numbers.
QB Jimmy Garoppolo – $27,000,000
QB Trey Lance – $7,751,195
RB Trey Sermon – $1,107,485
RB Elijah Mitchell – $870,893
FB Kyle Juszyzck – $2,958,750
WR Brandon Aiyuk – $3,417,641
WR Deebo Samuel – $2,899,159
WR Jalen Hurd – $1,361,717
TE George Kittle – $16,100,000
TE Charlie Woerner – $940,258
C Alex Mack – $6,725,000
RG Aaron Banks – $1,607,638
LT Trent Williams – $14,120,000
LT Jaylon Moore – $905,759
RT Mike McGlinchey – $10,808,000
RT Justin Skule – $1,009,887
DE Nick Bosa – $10,805,564
DE Arik Armstead – $20,000,000 ($21,132,000 if they restructure his contract)
DE Dee Ford – $11,909,997
DE Samson Ebukam – $8,250,000
DT Javon Kinlaw – $4,224,191
WLB Dre Greenlaw – $1,045,429
MLB Fred Warner – $8,164,000
CB Emmanuel Moseley – $6,732,000
CB Ambry Thomas – $1,087,693
CB Deommodore Lenoir – $896,217
FS Jimmie Ward – $11,500,000
SS Talanoa Hufanga – $885,038
PK Robbie Gould – $5,509,313
P Mitch Wishnowsky – $1,156,018
LS Taybor Pepper – $1,120,000
As of now, the 2022 NFL Salary Cap is projected to be no higher than $208.2 million, which is what the NFL, & NFLPA agreed to be the ceiling for 2022.
If the 2022 cap is indeed $208.2 million, that would put the 49ers, with the top 51 rule in effect, $3,526,914 over the cap.
Now, the 49ers have 3 players from the 2019 draft class, who should/could see their 2022 base salaries escalate, those being Deebo Samuel, Dre Greenlaw, & Mitch Wishnowsky.
I also have to mention that 3 players either will or have a chance to see their base salary escalate, thanks to the PPE(Proven Performance Escalator), with those being wide receiver Deebo Samuel, weakside linebacker Dre Greenlaw, and punter Mitch Wishnowsky.
First is Deebo, who could see his base salary escalate to the Right of First Refusal/Original Round tender, which is projected to be $2.396 million, but Deebo needs to play at least 60% of the 49ers offensive snaps, so unlike 3rd-7th rounders, who only need to play 35% of their teams snaps, either in 2 of his first 3 seasons, or average 35% of their teams snaps over the first 3 seasons, where Deebo, a 2nd-round pick in 2019, has to either have the 60% of the 49ers offensive snaps in either 2 of his first 3 seasons, or average 60% over his first 3 seasons.
Deebo played 67% of the 49ers offensive snaps in his rookie year, but in 2020, he only played in 27.9% of the 49ers offensive snaps, due to injuries that saw him miss 9 games, so he’ll need to stay healthy, & produce to earn that $2.396 million, and if he does play like he did in 2019, the 49ers could very well reward him with a contract extension, with my projection being along the lines of what Curtis Samuel received from the Washington Football Team, which was $11.5 million a year, which in my opinion, is worth it, as Deebo is so dynamic, and a threat whenever he has the ball.
Now, Greenlaw is already set to see his base salary escalate to at least the Right of First Refusal/Original Round tender, which for 2022, is projected to be $2.396 million, and if he plays in at least 55% of the 49ers defensive snaps this season, he’ll get an additional $250,000.
I can also see the 49ers extending Greenlaw, now it won’t be anywhere near as much as what Fred Warner got, but, I can see Greenlaw getting somewhere in the neighborhood of $10 million a year, and if this happens, the 49ers would have locked up both of their starting linebackers, with Fred Warner is signed through 2026 thanks to a 5-year extension, worth $19.045 million a year.
And the good thing about Greenlaw, with Warner, is both are in their mid 20s, as Greenlaw is 24, while Warner is 25, so they both have a lot of football left in them, and they could end up being the 49ers new Patrick Willis/NaVorro Bowman tandem that the 49ers had from 2010-2014, as both were regarded as the best 2 players at their position, now I’m not saying a Fred Warner/Dre Greenlaw tandem will be as great as Willis & Bowman, but with Warner already a true superstar, it’s not that implausible to see Greenlaw turn into an even better play than he already is.
Lastly, there’s Wishnowsky, which, unless he ends up injured, and missing the season, he will see his 2022 base salary escalate to the Right of First Refusal/Original Round tender of $2.396 million, as he has played more than 35% of the 49ers special teams snaps, with 54.7% in 2019, & 44.8% in 2020.
So, if all 3 players do indeed hit the requirements, then they’ll add on $3,513,360 to the teams payroll, $401,360 for Deebo Samuel, $1.681 million for Greenlaw, and $1.431 million for Wishnowsky, which would put the 49ers $7,040,274 over the 2022 cap.
So, yes the 49ers will be over the 2022 cap, but, they can easily create cap room, with the likely release or trade of Jimmy Garoppolo, that would free up $24.895 million, which would put the 49ers $17,854,726 under the 2022 cap.
Now, let’s take a look at the 49ers 2022 free agents, as it stands right now, before the team adds anyone else to the 2021 active roster.
UFA:
RB Raheem Mostert
RB Jeff Wilson Jr.
WR Trent Sherfield
WR Mohamed Sanu Sr.
WR Richie James Jr.
TE Ross Dwelley
LG Laken Tomlinson
RG Tom Compton
LT Shon Coleman
DE Arden Key
DE Jordan Willis
DT Maurice Hurst Jr.
NT D.J. Jones
NT Zach Kerr
WLB Marcell Harris
SLB Mychal Kendricks
CB Jason Verrett
CB K’Waun Williams
FS Tarvarius Moore
FS Tavon Wilson
SS Jaquiski Tartt
RFA:
C Daniel Brunskill
DT Kentavius Street
SLB Azeez Al-Shaair
CB Davontae Harris
ERFA:
RB JaMycal Hasty
WR Jauan Jennings
DT Kevin Givens
SLB Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles
Now, let’s first talk about the teams RFAs & ERFAs.
For the teams RFAs, I’d expect them to re-sign at least Brunskill, Street, & Al-Shaair to 1-year deals, worth much less than the projected right of first refusal tender, which is projected to be $2.396 million, similar to what they did this offseason with Jeff Wilson Jr., Ross Dwelley, & Marcell Harris.
I’d assume that these 3 wouldn’t get anything more than a 1-year, $1.5 million deal, similar to Dwelley, & Harris’ deals.
As for the ERFAs, if all 4 make it through the season, the 49ers will most definitely tender them, with Hasty, Givens, & Flannigan-Fowles’ tenders being just $895,000, and Jennings’ being just $825,000.
If we were to factor these 7 players potential 2022 cap numbers, a total of $8.01 million, but after factoring in the top 51 rule, it takes away $3.075 million, which would put the 49ers $14,779,726 under the 2022 cap.
So, the 49ers would then have 37 actual payers signed, despite already factoring in the team having 51 players already signed, and those players’ salaries are below.
QB Trey Lance(2024) – $7,751,195
RB Trey Sermon(2024) – $1,107,485
RB Elijah Mitchell(2024) – $870,893
RB JaMycal Hasty(2022) – $895,000
FB Kyle Juszyzck(2025) – $2,958,750
WR Brandon Aiyuk(2023) – $3,417,641
WR Deebo Samuel(2022) – $3,300,519
WR Jalen Hurd(2022) – $1,361,717
WR Jauan Jennings(2022) – $825,000
TE George Kittle(2025) – $16,100,000
TE Charlie Woerner(2023) – $940,258
C Alex Mack(2023) – $6,725,000
C Daniel Brunskill(2022) – $1,500,000
RG Aaron Banks(2024) – $1,607,638
LT Trent Williams(2026) – $14,120,000
LT Jaylon Moore(2024) – $905,759
RT Mike McGlinchey(2022) – $10,808,000
RT Justin Skule(2022) – $1,009,887
DE Nick Bosa(2022) – $10,805,564
DE Arik Armstead(2024) – $20,000,000 ($21,132,000 if they restructure his contract)
DE Dee Ford(2022) – $11,909,997
DE Samson Ebukam(2022) – $8,250,000
DT Javon Kinlaw(2023) – $4,224,191
DT Kevin Givens(2022) – $895,000
DT Kentavius Street(2022) – $1,500,000
WLB Dre Greenlaw(2022) – $2,726,429
MLB Fred Warner(2026) – $8,164,000
SLB Azeez Al-Shaair(2022) – $1,500,000
SLB Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles(2022) – $895,000
CB Emmanuel Moseley(2022) – $6,732,000
CB Ambry Thomas(2024) – $1,087,693
CB Deommodore Lenoir(2024) – $896,217
FS Jimmie Ward(2022) – $11,500,000
SS Talanoa Hufanga(2024) – $885,038
PK Robbie Gould(2022) – $5,509,313
P Mitch Wishnowsky(2022) – $2,587,018
LS Taybor Pepper(2022) – $1,120,000
Now, of the 49ers pending UFAs, the most likely players the 49ers would try to bring back are, wide receiver Trent Sherfield, tight end Ross Dwelley, defensive ends Arden Key, & Jordan Willis, defensive tackle Maurice Hurst Jr., nose tackles D.J. Jones, & Zach Kerr, and cornerbacks Jason Verrett, & K’Waun Williams.
If I had to put average per year numbers on these players, I would say, $2.5 million for Sherfield, $2 million for Dwelley, $2.5 million for Key, $2.5 million for Hurst, $5 million for Jones, $2 million for Kerr, $8 million for Verrett, and $5 million for K’Waun.
The total APY for these 8 players would be $29.5 million, but that wouldn’t be their cap numbers, as the 49ers would for sure have low year 1 cap numbers, while backloading any multi-year contract.
So, the $14,779,726 in cap room could be enough to retain these players, but the 49ers would still need to create cap room to sign their 2022 draft picks, and to have cap room for in season emergencies, & roster moves.
The 49ers could also choose to bring back free safety Tarvarius Moore, on what I would expect to be the Four-Year Qualifying Contract, which would see him get a $2.285 million base salary, a $152,500 signing bonus, but only count $1,187,500 against the cap, a $1.25 million savings.
Which would put the 49ers $14,297,226 under the 2022 cap.
I could also see the 49ers trying to bring back one of their two running backs, either Raheem Mostert, or Jeff Wilson Jr., but that would likely cost more than they would like to spend, especially after they drafted 2 backs this year.
As for left guard Laken Tomlinson, I can see the 49ers trying to extend him, as he’s set to count $1,005,530 in dead money for 2022, but I can also see the 49ers not re-signing him, and letting someone like Jaylon Moore, Aaron Banks, or another draft pick take over.
As for strong safety Jaquiski Tartt, I think it’s very likely that we see Talanoa Hufanga as the teams long term starting strong safety, making Tartt expendable.
It’s also possible that the 49ers choose to move on from K’Waun Williams, & handing the reigns of the slot cornerback spot over to Deommodore Lenoir.
I can see the 49ers extending both Deebo Samuel, & Dre Greenlaw, likely to deals in the range of $11.5 million a year for both, on multi-year deals.
Now, we can’t talk about 2022, and not mention 2019 Defensive Rookie of the Year Nick Bosa, who will also become eligible for an extension once the 2021 season ends, plus the 49ers will have to exercise his 5th-year option by May 3rd, 2022, which will either be $16.659 million, which is the projected Transition tag number, or $20.186 million, which is the projected Franchise tag number.
Now, Bosa is already guaranteed to get the $16.659 million number, due to making the Pro Bowl in his rookie year, and had he not torn his ACL last year, he likely would have made his 2nd Pro Bowl.
So, if Bosa makes the Pro Bowl this year, his 5th-year option will be the $20.186 million number, this is because there are 4 types of potential salary cap numbers, and they’re listed below.
Basic: Basically, if a player doesn’t play enough snaps in the first 3 years of his contract, he would get the average of the 3rd-25th highest salaries, but Bosa doesn’t have to worry, due to making the Pro Bowl his rookie year.
Playtime: For this one, the player must play 75% or more of their teams snaps in 2 of their first 3 years, or an average of 75% or more over all 3 seasons, or a minimum of 50% in all 3 seasons, but again, Bosa doesn’t have to worry.
One Pro Bowl: This is simple, if the player makes 1 Pro Bowl in his first 3 seasons, then he will receive the transition tag amount, which, Bosa currently will get if he doesn’t make the Pro Bowl this year.
Multiple Pro Bows: Again, simple, for Bosa, if he makes the Pro Bowl this season, he’ll get the franchise tag amount, because he was named to more than 1 Pro Bowl in his first 3 seasons.
Also of note, he has to make the Pro Bowl on the original ballot, being named as an alternate doesn’t count.
So, let’s talk a Nick Bosa extension, if the 49ers do try to get Bosa locked up next offseason, as they should, I’d expect him to get more than what his brother Joey Bosa got from the Los Angeles Chargers, which was $27 million a year, likely in the $30 million a year for Nick, which would likely be a 5-year, $150 million extension, which would put Bosa under contract through 2027, as the extension years would begin in 2023.
As for guarantees, he’ll likely get at least $100 million, with $50 million to $80 million of it fully guaranteed, but we could see Bosa take less guarantees like some of the recent 49ers long term signings, namely Trent Williams, & Fred Warner.
Now, as for how to get the deal done, basically the structure of the deal, it’ll definitely be backloaded, as the cap is expected to explode in either 2023 or 2024, so there won’t be cap issues, especially if the cap goes up each year by $20 million or so.
If the salary cap does explode in 2023, then it would likely come in at around $256 million to $260 million, the same as for 2024, so below is what the salary cap could look like from 2023-2030.
2023: $260 million
2024: $280 million
2025: $300 million
2026: $320 million
2027: $340 million
2028: $360 million
2029: $380 million
2030: $400 million
Now if the year that the cap goes up is 2024, then from 2024-2030 would look like this.
2024: $260 million
2025: $280 million
2026: $300 million
2027: $320 million
2028: $340 million
2029: $360 million
2030: $380 million
So, backloading the contracts that the 49ers did this offseason, like Trent Williams, & Fred Warner, won’t have a negative effect on the salary cap, and the same can be said for Nick Bosa, Deebo Samuel, Dre Greenlaw, Brandon Aiyuk, Javon Kinlaw, and Trey Lance in the future.
So, the structure, he’ll definitely have per game roster bonuses, likely in the $750,000 range, and workout bonuses, likely in the $100,000 range, each year, starting in 2022, I would also take his training camp roster bonus, which is due by July 28th, 2022, which should be the 3rd day of training camp, and turn it into his prorated portion of his signing bonus, likely $30 million, so the 49ers would only need to use $1,694,775, as his roster bonus is $4,305,225, thus his salary cap number would go from $10,805,564 to $12,500,339, so just an increase of $1,694,775.
Now, I wasn’t sure if the 49ers would try something like this, where they turned a players base salary or roster bonus or option bonus into a signing bonus, while either using very little, to no cap room.
But, the 49ers did this, when they extended Fred Warner, they turned the difference of his $3.384 million base salary into a signing bonus, while keeping his 2021 cap number exactly the same as it was before he signed the extension.
Now, the team could create more cap room, as they could either, depending on their play, extend or release defensive end Samson Ebukam, and cornerback Emmanuel Moseley.
Both Ebukam, & Moseley have had strong camps, so I’d think the 49ers would try to extend them, likely in the $6 million a year for Ebukam, and I could see Moseley getting a bump from the $4.692 million, to around $5.5 million a year.
If they did extend them, they’d save, if they were signed to 4-year extensions, to prorate the signing bonus over 5 years, $3.892 million from a Ebukam extension, and $2.692 million from a Moseley extension.
Now, if for sone reason they don’t play up to their contracts, they’d be able to save $5.795 million from releasing Ebukam, and $2.237 million from releasing Moseley, but Moseley’s $4.4 million base salary for 2022 is guaranteed for injury/skill, meaning if he’s cut while hurt, he’d get the $4.4 million, then it becomes fully guaranteed on April 1, 2022.
The 49ers could also restructure George Kittle, and Arik Armstead, which would save the maximum of $8.332 million from restructuring Kittle, if they add 1 voidable year onto his deal, and they’d save a maximum of $10.424 million from restructuring Armstead’s deal again, if they add on 1 more voidable year, as his 2025 contract year will void on the 5th day of the waiver period, which starts after the Super Bowl.
I also have to talk about starting right tackle Mike McGlinchey, who had his 5th-year option exercised back on May 3rd, 2021, in which he will get a fully guaranteed $10.808 million, so it appears the 49ers are committed to McGlinchey, and if so, they could look to extend him, while also saving some cap room.
If they were to sign McGlinchey to a 5-year extension, likely worth around $15 million a year, and they could save as much as $7,818,400, as they would lower his $10.808 million base salary down to the league minimum of $1.035 million, which gives McGlinchey a $9.773 million signing bonus, which would prorate at $1,954,600 a year.
He would most likely get yearly per game roster bonuses, likely around $750,000, and yearly workout bonuses, likely around $100,000, which are what All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams received in his record breaking 6-year deal, worth $138.06 million, and like with Fred Warner’s extension, the 49ers would likely add in an option bonus for 2023, which would then prorate over 5 years, & as far as the amount, likely in the $5.25 million range, which would prorate at $1.05 million from 2023-2027.
We also have to talk about Dee Ford, who has looked good, and looks to be back, but in 2022, he is due a $4.6 million roster bonus, which is injury guaranteed, and the 49ers have to decide not long after the Super Bowl, as the roster bonus is due between the 2nd and 5th day of the waiver period, which begins right after the Super Bowl.
So this one is hard to project, he’ll be on the 53, he’ll play, if he stays healthy, and he gives the 49ers production like he did in 2019, when he had 6.5 sacks, played over 100 snaps in the playoffs, and also had a sack in the playoffs, so if he gives the 49ers numbers like this, he should be brought back.
And, with all of this said, I thank everyone for reading article, as always you can follow me on Twitter @49erscap, or leave a comment below, and I’ll get back to you.
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