Alright, the preseason is in the books, and now it’s time for one last 53-man roster projection, plus injured lists, practice squad, and a look at the 2021 & 2022 salary cap.
OFFENSE:
QB(2): 10 Jimmy Garoppolo(2022)/ 5 Trey Lance(2024)
RB(4): 31 Raheem Mostert(2021)/ 28 Trey Sermon(2024)/ 23 JaMycal Hasty(2021)/ 49 Elijah Mitchell(2024)
FB(1): 44 Kyle Juszcyzk(2025)
WR(6): 11 Brandon Aiyuk(2023)/ 19 Deebo Samuel(2022)/ 81 Trent Sherfield(2021)/ 18 Mohamed Sanu Sr.(2021)/ 17 Travis Benjamin(2021)/ 14 Jalen Hurd(2022)
TE(3): 85 George Kittle(2025)/ 82 Ross Dwelley(2021)/ 89 Charlie Woerner(2023)
C(2): 50 Alex Mack(2023)/ 64 Jake Brendel(2021)
LG(2): 75 Laken Tomlinson(2021)/ 68 Colton McKivitz(2023)
RG(2): 60 Daniel Brunskill(2021)/ 65 Aaron Banks(2024)
LT(2): 71 Trent Williams(2026)/ 76 Jaylon Moore(2024)
RT(1): 69 Mike McGlinchey(2022)
DEFENSE:
DE(5): 97 Nick Bosa(2022)/ 91 Arik Armstead(2024)/ 55 Dee Ford(2022)/ 56 Samson Ebukam(2022)/ 98 Arden Key(2021)
DT(3): 99 Javon Kinlaw(2023)/ 90 Kevin Givens(2021)/ 95 Kentavius Street(2021)
NT(2): 93 D.J. Jones(2021)/ 92 Zach Kerr(2021)
WLB(2): 57 Dre Greenlaw(2022)/ 36 Marcell Harris(2021)
MLB(2): 54 Fred Warner(2026)/ 53 Jonas Griffith(2021)
SLB(1): 51 Azeez Al-Shaair(2021)
CB(5): 2 Jason Verrett(2021)/ 4 Emmanuel Moseley(2022)/ 24 K’Waun Williams(2021)/ 20 Ambry Thomas(2024)/ 38 Deommodore Lenoir(2024)
FS(3): 1 Jimmie Ward(2022)/ 32 Tavon Wilson(2021)/ 7 Jared Mayden(2021)
SS(2): 26 Jaquiski Tartt(2021)/ 29 Talanoa Hufanga(2024)
SPECIAL TEAMS:
PK(1): 9 Robbie Gould(2022)
P(1): 6 Mitch Wishnowsky(2022)
LS(1): 46 Taybor Pepper(2022)
LIKELY INACTIVES:
RB Elijah Mitchell
WR Jalen Hurd
LG Colton McKivitz
DT Kevin Givens of DT Kentavius Street
FS Jared Mayden
RESERVE LISTS:
PUP: RB 30 Jeff Wilson Jr.(2021)
IR: WR 13 Richie James Jr.(2021)
Short Term IR: LT 78 Shon Coleman(2021)
IR: RT 67 Justin Skule(2022)
SUSPENDED: DE 94 Jordan Willis(2021)
Short Term IR: DT 96 Maurice Hurst Jr.(2021)
IR: SLB 48 Mychal Kendricks(2021)
PUP: FS 33 Tarvarius Moore(2021)
PRACTICE SQUAD:
QB 7 Nate Sudfeld*
RB 22 Wayne Gallman II*
FB 40 Josh Hokit
WR 15 Jauan Jennings
WR 6 Nsimba Webster
TE 84 MyCole Pruitt*
TE 88 Jordan Matthews*
C 61 Dakoda Shepley
RT 77 Alfredo Gutierrez**
DE 64 Alex Barrett
NT 65 Darrion Daniels
WLB 59 Elijah Sullivan
MLB 58 Justin Hilliard
SLB 45 Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles
CB 27 Dontae Johnson*
CB 41 Alexander Myres
FS 49 Ha Ha Clinton-Dix*
*Denotes player with 3 or more accrued years
**Denotes International Pathway Player who automatically goes on the Practice Squad if the team chooses, but he’s ineligible to play during the season.
Before I go into the salary cap room, the following players would either have all or part of their base salary guaranteed for 2021.
QB Jimmy Garoppolo – $24,100,000
QB Trey Lance – $660,000
RB Raheem Mostert – $2,975,000
RB Jeff Wilson Jr. – $920,000
FB Kyle Juszczyk – $1,075,000
WR Brandon Aiyuk – $1,179,607
WR Deebo Samuel – $268,835
WR Trent Sherfield – $200,000
WR Mohamed Sanu Sr. – $850,000
WR Travis Benjamin – $1,075,000
TE George Kittle – $1,250,000
TE Ross Dwelley – $920,000
C Alex Mack – $1,425,000
C Jake Brendel – $850,000
LG Laken Tomlinson – $4,500,000
RG Aaron Banks – $660,000
LT Trent Williams – $1,550,000
RT Mike McGlinchey – $920,000
DE Arik Armstead – $6,650,000
DE Nick Bosa – $780,000
DE Dee Ford – $4,000,000
DE Samson Ebukam – $1,500,000
DE Arden Key – $100,000
DT Javon Kinlaw – $1,314,032
DT Maurice Hurst Jr. – $100,000
NT D.J. Jones – $1,000,000
NT Zach Kerr – $200,000
WLB Marcell Harris – $250,000
MLB Fred Warner – $920,000
SLB Mychal Kendricks – $200,000
CB Jason Verrett – $2,500,000
CB Emmanuel Moseley – $920,000
CB K’Waun Williams – $1,120,000
FS Jimmie Ward – $8,400,000
FS Tavon Wilson – $850,000
SS Jaquiski Tartt – $850,000
PK Robbie Gould – $1,100,000
LS Taybor Pepper – $220,000
So, that’s 38 players, but 3 are on either IR or PUP, leaving 35 of the 53 players, with 21 of those beiong vested veterans, the rest, 14, are players with less than 4 accrued years, but are guys who aren’t likely be let go in my opinion.
That leaves 18 players on the 53, who don’t have any money guaranteed, with those being, RBs JaMycal Hasty, & Elijah Mitchell, WR Jalen Hurd, TE Charlie Woerner, LG Colton McKivitz, RGs Daniel Brunskill, & Aaron Banks, LT Jaylon Moore, DTs Kevin Givens, & Kentavius Street, WLB Dre Greenlaw, MLB Jonas Griffith, SLB Azeez Al-Shaair, CBs Ambry Thomas, & Deommodore Lenoir, FS Jared Mayden, SS Talanoa Hufanga, & P Mitch Wishnowsky, plus injured players WRs Jalen Hurd, & Richie James Jr., RT Justin Skule, DE Jordan Willis, & FS Tarvarius Moore.
Ok, now let’s take look at the 49ers salary cap situation.
With this roster the 49ers would have $2,203,146 in cap room to begin 2021, meaning they’ll definitely need to restructure a contract or two, with Arik Armstead($4.528 million saved), & Laken Tomlinson($2.808 million saved) being the most logical choices.
I also expect the 49ers to reach injury settlements with Richie James Jr., and possibly Mychal Kendricks, who has $200,000 guaranteed, to try and free up additional cap room.
With so many injuries, the 49ers have lost a tremendous amount of cap room due to this, when you look at the 3 players likely to begin on reserve/PUP, Jeff Wilson Jr.($2.05 million), & Tarvarius Moore($1,116,093), they’ll count a total of $3,166,093, so with 2 players replacing them on the 53, making at minimum of $660,000, that means the team will lose $1.32 million, meaning they will have lost $1,846,093 in cap room.
Then when you look at the players I have on short term IR, Shon Coleman($1,127,500), & Maurice Hurst Jr.($1.045 million), totaling $2,172,500, they’ll have 2 players taking their spots making at least $660,000, for a loss of $852,500 had Coleman, & Hurst made the 53-man roster.
So that’s a loss of $2,698,593 for all of those 4 players.
So, they’re going to have to restructure, at least, Arik Armstead’s contract, it saves $4.528 million, while you only lose $1.132 million from 2022-2024, if they decided to also redo Laken Tomnlinson, then they’d save another $2.808 million, but lose that same amount in 2022, as Tomlinson already counts $1,005,530 in dead money from his 2020 restructure.
Now, this isn’t a sign that John Lynch screwed the cap up, unlike some want you to believe, this has to do with the 2021 cap going down, from $198.2 million to $182.5 million, a $15.7 million lose in cap room, had the NFL, NFLPA had been able to agree on keeping the cap at the 2020 number of $198.2 million, the team would have an additional $15.7 million, which would have allowed them to go out & sign a veteran EDGE, CB, and maybe a vet Slot WR, but it is what it is, we just have to applaud Lynch & Company for being able to sign, re-sign, bring back as many of their core guys as possible.
Now, the players set to go on short term IR, Shon Coleman, & Maurice Hurst Jr., we need to talk about how they will get to short term IR.
The 49ers will have to include both on the initial 53-man roster next Tuesday, which means they’ll have to cut, not waive, 2 players with 4 or more accrued years, meaning those guys don’t go through waivers, and will be brought back the next day when the team signs it’s practice squad.
The players who are the most likely are listed below, with the guys who have the best shot at making the team.
QB Nate Sudfeld
RB Wayne Gallman II
WR Mohamed Sanu Sr.
WR Travis Benjamin
TE MyCole Pruitt
TE Jordan Matthews
C Jake Brendel
NT Zach Kerr
FS Ha Ha Clinton-Dix
FS Tavon Wilson
Of these guys, I have Sanu, Benjamin, Brendel, Kerr, & Wilson on my 53, so I would say they cut Benjamin & Brendel, and then the next day, they’ll re-sign both to the same contracts they were signed too already, basically a wink-wink deal, as it happens every year, as it’s the only way to get a player to go on short term IR before week 1.
Now, don’t worry, as I said, none of these players will go through waivers, and they’ll be told to stick around in Santa Clara to be re-signed to the same deals that they signed in the offseason, the next day, when they place the short term IR players on IR, so the 49ers won’t lose any of them.
Now, if they were to have waived someone who will go through waivers, they’ll risk losing them, like a JaMycal Hasty, Jared Mayden, & others.
So, again, they’re going to have to restructure at least Arik Armstead, which would give them $4.528 million more, so they’d be at $6,731,146, and if they restructured Laken Tomlinson, they’d get $2.808 million, which would give them $9,539,146 to begin 2021.
Now, they’ll also need $1,432,352 to payback 15 players’ per game roster bonuses that don’t count against the cap right now, with those 15 players, and the amounts listed below.
QB Jimmy Garoppolo – $517,647
RB Raheem Mostert – $132,353
FB Kyle Juszyzck – $23,529
TE George Kittle – $52,941
TE Ross Dwelley – $11,765
C Alex Mack – $70,588
LG Laken Tomlinson – $23,529
LT Trent Williams – $132,353
DE Arik Armstead – $44,118
DE Samson Ebukam – $29,412
NT D.J. Jones – $44,118
NT Zach Kerr – $20,588
WLB Marcell Harris – $5,882
CB Jason Verrett – $235,294
FS Jimmie Ward – $88,235
If, for some reason, these 15 players are able to play in every game, which seems very unlikely, the 49ers cap room goes from either $6,731,146 to $5,298,794 with just Armstead’s restructure or $9,539,146 to $8,106,794 with both Armstead, & Tomlinson restructured.
Also, the team will need cap room for practice squad promotions for the active gameday 48-man roster, which sees the player get paid 1/18th’s of what his minimum base salary would be, so for a veteran, say Jake Brendel, he’d get 1/18th of a $990,000 base salary, so $55,000.
Below is the list of what players would make, depending on what their minimum base salary would be.
Rookie – $660,000 base salary, $36,667 per week
2nd Year- $780,000 base salary, $43,333 per week
3rd Year- $850,000 base salary, $47,222 per week
4th Year- $920,000 base salary, $51,111 per week
5th-7th Year- $990,000 base salary, $55,000 per week
8th or later Year- $1,075,000 base salary, $59,722 per week.
So, as you can see, that will really add up over the course of a 17-game schedule, 18 weeks in total, since practice squad players can play in 2 games maximum, except if a player is placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list, then the player can play as many games as the team wants them to.
But, if each player plays just the 2 games, the projected cap room used up is $1,346,672 if the team plays all 16 players just 2 games, with 10 players making the rookie amount, & 6 making the 4th year amount, which would be the lowest they could with the 10 players with 2 or less accrued year, & 6 players with 3 or more accrued season making just the 4th year minimum of $920,000, the most they’d account for is $1,661,104, which is 10 players making the 3rd year minimum & 6 making the 8th+ year minimum.
Now, it’s impossible to factor in the extra amount for players who may get placed on reserve/COVID-19 list.
As far as the roster goes, I decided with the following.
I decided to keep just 2 quarterbacks, with center Jake Brendel essentially taking the 3rd QBs spot, since he’s really played his way into a roster spot, and I still have Colton McKivitz on the 53, as I don’t think the 49ers will give up on his this early.
I also have Nate Sudfeld on the practice squad, as he doesn’t go through waivers.
At running back, I decided to go with the youth, both JaMycal Hasty, & Elijah Mitchell, as I don’t think both will pass waivers, so I decided to have Wayne Gallman II, who doesn’t have to go through waivers, on the practice squad.
At wide receiver, I decided to go with Travis Benjamin over Nsimba Webster as the teams returner, along with Jalen Hurd over Jauan Jennings, with Jennings on the practice squad, along with Webster.
At tight end, only 3, with the top 3, with MyCole Pruitt on the teams practice squad, along with Jordan Matthews.
Only change on the offensive line, as I mentioned, is Jake Brendel added.
No differences on the defensive line, just Maurice Hurst Jr. goes on short term IR, and Jordan Willis on reserve/Suspended list for the first 6 weeks.
In the secondary, I decided to keep 10 total, the 5 cornerbacks are the same as I’ve had all offseason, but at safety, I have my 3 locks, Ward, Tartt, & Hufanga, plus camp standouts Tavon Wilson & Jared Mayden on the 53, as both bring versatility, as Wilson can play both safety spots, and Mayden can as well, plus cornerback, which leaves Ha Ha Clinton-Dix off the 53, and on the practice squad.
I also wanted to breakdown the exact amount the 49ers can save from restructuring the following contracts.
Jimmy Garoppolo – Maximum of $18.42 million with 3 void years, minimum of $11,512,500 with 2-years left
Laken Tomlinson – Maximum of $2.808 million with 1 more void year, minimum of $2,632,500 with the current 4-years left on his deal, which voids after 2021.
Arik Armstead – $4.528 million for both Maximum & Minimum due to already having 5-years left on his deal, including the 2025 void year.
Jimmie Ward – Maximum of $5.86 million with 2 extra void years, Minimum of $4,883,333 with current 3-years left on his deal, including 2023 void year.
I also know people will say why can’t the 49ers just do what the Chiefs did, and create more cap room, well, they don’t have many players with high salaries to either be restructured, or a paycut taken.
For instance, this years free agent signees, including re-signings, most got either the minimum, or just above the minimum, while the only other contracts that have decent enough salaries are Raheem Mostert’s $2.975 million, and Dee Ford’s $4 million, but I don’t know if the 49ers would restructure or extend Mostert, and Ford just restructured his deal, so it’s doubtful he takes a paycut, as his $4 million is fully guaranteed.
Now, the 49ers have 32 players signed for 2022 under this projected roster, with them accounting for $193,918,287, while the team will have either $4,521,182 in dead money or $7,392,182 if they restructure Tomlinson.
Also, if the 49ers do restructure Arik Armstead’s contract, his 2022-2024 cap numbers go up by $1.132 million each year, which would put the 49ers at $195,050,287 in committed salaries for 33 players, which I’ll now list below, with their 2022 cap numbers.
QB Jimmy Garoppolo – $27,000,000
QB Trey Lance – $7,751,195
RB Trey Sermon – $1,107,485
RB Elijah Mitchell – $870,893
FB Kyle Juszyzck – $2,958,750
WR Brandon Aiyuk – $3,417,641
WR Deebo Samuel – $2,899,159
WR Jalen Hurd – $1,361,717
TE George Kittle – $16,100,000
TE Charlie Woerner – $940,258
C Alex Mack – $6,725,000
LG Colton McKivitz – $977,445
RG Aaron Banks – $1,607,638
LT Trent Williams – $14,120,000
LT Jaylon Moore – $905,759
RT Mike McGlinchey – $10,808,000
RT Justin Skule – $1,009,887
DE Nick Bosa – $10,805,564
DE Arik Armstead – $20,000,000 ($21,132,000 if they restructure his contract)
DE Dee Ford – $11,909,997
DE Samson Ebukam – $8,250,000
DT Javon Kinlaw – $4,224,191
WLB Dre Greenlaw – $1,045,429
MLB Fred Warner – $8,164,000
CB Emmanuel Moseley – $6,732,000
CB Ambry Thomas – $1,087,693
CB Deommodore Lenoir – $896,217
FS Jimmie Ward – $11,500,000
SS Talanoa Hufanga – $885,038
PK Robbie Gould – $5,509,313
P Mitch Wishnowsky – $1,156,018
LS Taybor Pepper – $1,120,000
Now, the 49ers would be $3,634,469 over the 2022 salary cap, if it hits the ceiling of $208.2 million, but if they restructure Arik Armstead, then they’ll be $4,766,469 over the 2022 cap.
Now, if they also restructure Laken Tomlinson, then they’d be $7,574,469 over the cap.
I also have to mention that 3 players either will or have a chance to see their base salary escalate, thanks to the PPE(Proven Performance Escalator), with those being wide receiver Deebo Samuel, weakside linebacker Dre Greenlaw, and punter Mitch Wishnowsky.
First is Deebo, who could see his base salary escalate to the Right of First Refusal/Original Round tender, which is projected to be $2.396 million, but Deebo needs to play at least 60% of the 49ers offensive snaps, so unlike 3rd-7th rounders, who only need to play 35% of their teams snaps, either in 2 of his first 3 seasons, or average 35% of their teams snaps over the first 3 seasons, where Deebo, a 2nd-round pick in 2019, has to either have the 60% of the 49ers offensive snaps in either 2 of his first 3 seasons, or average 60% over his first 3 seasons.
Deebo played 67% of the 49ers offensive snaps in his rookie year, but in 2020, he only played in 27.9% of the 49ers offensive snaps, due to injuries that saw him miss 9 games, so he’ll need to stay healthy, & produce to earn that $2.396 million, and if he does play like he did in 2019, the 49ers could very well reward him with a contract extension, with my projection being along the lines of what Curtis Samuel received from the Washington Football Team, which was $11.5 million a year, which in my opinion, is worth it, as Deebo is so dynamic, and a threat whenever he has the ball.
Now, Greenlaw is already set to see his base salary escalate to at least the Right of First Refusal/Original Round tender, which for 2022, is projected to be $2.396 million, and if he plays in at least 55% of the 49ers defensive snaps this season, he’ll get an additional $250,000.
I can also see the 49ers extending Greenlaw, now it won’t be anywhere near as much as what Fred Warner got, but, I can see Greenlaw getting somewhere in the neighborhood of $10 million a year, and if this happens, the 49ers would have locked up both of their starting linebackers, with Fred Warner is signed through 2026 thanks to a 5-year extension, worth $19.045 million a year.
And the good thing about Greenlaw, with Warner, is both are in their mid 20s, as Greenlaw is 24, while Warner is 25, so they both have a lot of football left in them, and they could end up being the 49ers new Patrick Willis/NaVorro Bowman tandem that the 49ers had from 2010-2014, as both were regarded as the best 2 players at their position, now I’m not saying a Fred Warner/Dre Greenlaw tandem will be as great as Willis & Bowman, but with Warner already a true superstar, it’s not that implausible to see Greenlaw turn into an even better play than he already is.
Lastly, there’s Wishnowsky, which, unless he ends up injured, and missing the season, he will see his 2022 base salary escalate to the Right of First Refusal/Original Round tender of $2.396 million, as he has played more than 35% of the 49ers special teams snaps, with 54.7% in 2019, & 44.8% in 2020.
So, if all 3 players do indeed hit the requirements, then they’ll add on $3,513,360 to the teams payroll, $401,360 for Deebo Samuel, $1.681 million for Greenlaw, and $1.431 million for Wishnowsky.
The 49ers would then be either $7,147,829 over the cap if they don’t restructure anyone, which is unlikely, or $11,087,829 over if they restructure both Armstead, & Tomlinson, or $8,279,829 over if they restructured just Armstead.
Yes, the 49ers are likely to be over the cap in 2022 leading up to the start of the new league year, due to the top 51 rule, as they have just 33 players signed, with 18 spots to fill on the top 51 rule, but don’t worry, the 49ers will have cap room in 2022.
As we know, Jimmy Garoppolo won’t be a 49er in 2022, which will save the team, after the top 51 rule, $24.895 million, so the 49ers would either be $17,747,171 under the cap if they don’t restructure anyone, but again, that unlikely, or $13,807,171 under the cap if they restructure both Armstead, & Tomlinson, or $16,615,171 under the cap if they restructure just Armstead.
Now, while restructuring both Arik Armstead, & Laken Tomlinson would give the 49ers more salary cap room, a total of $7.336 million, if would add $2.808 million to the 49ers dead money for 2022, due to Tomlinson’s restructure in 2020, and if the 49ers don’t extend Tomlinson, then his contract would void on February 15th, 2022, thus putting $1,005,530 in dead money for 2022, which I already have factored in.
So, the one that makes the most sense is to restructure Armstead’s deal, and only lose $1.132 million from the $17,747,171 number if they don’t restructure anyone’s contract, which again, is unlikely due to the 49ers being tight up against the cap right now.
So, for 2022, $16,615,171 would be enough to re-sign anyone of the core free agents that the 49ers would want back, so let’s look at who would be free agents after 2021, under this projection.
UFA:
RB Raheem Mostert
RB Jeff Wilson Jr.
WR Trent Sherfield
WR Mohamed Sanu Sr.
WR Travis Benjamin
WR Richie James Jr.
TE Ross Dwelley
C Jake Brendel
LG Laken Tomlinson
DE Arden Key
DE Jordan Willis
DT Maurice Hurst Jr.
NT D.J. Jones
NT Zach Kerr
WLB Marcell Harris
SLB Mychal Kendricks
CB Jason Verrett
CB K’Waun Williams
FS Tarvarius Moore
SS Tavon Wilson
SS Jaquiski Tartt
RFA:
C Daniel Brunskill
DT Kentavius Street
SLB Azeez Al-Shaair
ERFA:
RB JaMycal Hasty
WR Jauan Jennings
DT Kevin Givens
MLB Jonas Griffith
FS Jared Mayden
Starting with the teams RFAs, the 49ers will likely do the same thing they did this offseason by signing Jeff Wilson Jr., Ross Dwelley, & Marcell Harris to 1-year deals, for less than the original round tender, which for 2022, it’s projected to be $2.396 million, so I can see Brunskill, Street, & Al-Shaair getting 1-year deals, worth in the range of $1.25 million to $1.6 million.
As for the teams ERFAs, they would definitely tender all 5, with Jennings, Griffith, & Mayden’s tenders being $825,000, Hasty, Givens, & Flannigan-Fowles being $965,000.
As for the teams UFAs, they will likely look to bring back 1 of the 2 running backs Raheem Mostert, & Jeff Wilson Jr., wide receiver Trent Sherfield, tight end Ross Dwelley, nose tackle D.J. Jones, strongside linebacker Marcell Harris, cornerbacks Jason Verrett, & K’Waun Wiliams, and free safety Tarvarius Moore.
Of these free agents, I would say Sherfield, Dwelley, Jones, Harris, Verrett, & Moore would be brought back, with Sherfield being the $2.5 million a year range, Dwelley being in the $2 million a year range, Jones in the $5 million a year range, Harris in the $2 million a year range, Verrett in the $8 million a year range, and I’d expect Moore to sign the Four-Year Qualifying Contract, where he would get $1.25 million more than his minimum salary, which would be $1.035 million, plus a $152,500 signing bonus, which would come up to $2,437,500, but it would only count $1,187,500, which gives the team cap space, while the player gets more money than he would if he signed a regular minimum contract.
If 2021 5th-rounder Deommodore Lenoir plays well, he might take K’Waun Williams’ spot as the teams nickelback/slot cornerback, but Williams is one of the best, if not the best nickelback/slot cornerback in the NFL, so I’d hope the 49ers bring him back, maybe on a 3-year deal, worth around $5 million a year.
Other free agents the team may bring back, depending on their play would be defensive end Arden Key, defensive tackle Maurice Hurst Jr., & nose tackle Zach Kerr.
These 3 players shouldn’t cost more than $1.5 million to $2 million each year.
You will notice that I left off a few players, namely left guard Laken Tomlinson, & strong safety Jaquiski Tartt, because we could see a recent young draft pick taking their starting spots.
For Tomlinson, the choices will likely be 2020 5th-rounder Colton McKivitz, 2021 5th-rounder Jaylon Moore, and maybe 2021 2nd-rounder Aaron Banks, but I expect Banks to be the teams new right guard for the foreseeable future.
As for Tartt, 2021 5th-rounder Talanoa Hufanga could very well end up being the teams new long term strong safety.
Also, it’s possible the 49ers decide to not bring back Raheem Mostert and/or Jeff Wilson Jr., due to the fact that the 49ers drafted 2 running backs in the 2021 draft, 3rd-rounder Trey Sermon, & 6th-rounder Elijah Mitchell, along with former 2020 UDFA JaMycal Hasty, so it wouldn’t surprise me if Sermon ends up taking over the starting running back spot sometime this season, which would most likely mean Mostert would want to go somewhere where he would be the teams featured back, while if Wilson can’t recover from his torn meniscus, or just doesn’t live up to the 1-year, $2.05 million fully guaranteed deal, then the 49ers would likely let him walk, but if he recovers, plays well, then I can see the 49ers trying to retain Wilson.
Now, we can’t talk about 2022, and not mention 2019 Defensive Rookie of the Year Nick Bosa, who will also become eligible for an extension once the 2021 season ends, plus the 49ers will have to exercise his 5th-year option by May 3rd, 2022, which will either be $16.659 million, which is the projected Transition tag number, or $20.186 million, which is the projected Franchise tag number.
Now, Bosa is already guaranteed to get the $16.659 million number, due to making the Pro Bowl in his rookie year, and had he not torn his ACL last year, he likely would have made his 2nd Pro Bowl.
So, if Bosa makes the Pro Bowl this year, his 5th-year option will be the $20.186 million number, this is because there are 4 types of potential salary cap numbers, and they’re listed below.
Basic: Basically, if a player doesn’t play enough snaps in the first 3 years of his contract, he would get the average of the 3rd-25th highest salaries, but Bosa doesn’t have to worry, due to making the Pro Bowl his rookie year.
Playtime: For this one, the player must play 75% or more of their teams snaps in 2 of their first 3 years, or an average of 75% or more over all 3 seasons, or a minimum of 50% in all 3 seasons, but again, Bosa doesn’t have to worry.
One Pro Bowl: This is simple, if the player makes 1 Pro Bowl in his first 3 seasons, then he will receive the transition tag amount, which, Bosa currently will get if he doesn’t make the Pro Bowl this year.
Multiple Pro Bows: Again, simple, for Bosa, if he makes the Pro Bowl this season, he’ll get the franchise tag amount, because he was named to more than 1 Pro Bowl in his first 3 seasons.
Also of note, he has to make the Pro Bowl on the original ballot, being named as an alternate doesn’t count.
So, let’s talk a Nick Bosa extension, if the 49ers do try to get Bosa locked up next offseason, as they should, I’d expect him to get more than what his brother Joey Bosa got from the Los Angeles Chargers, which was $27 million a year, likely in the $30 million a year for Nick, which would likely be a 5-year, $150 million extension, which would put Bosa under contract through 2027, as the extension years would begin in 2023.
As for guarantees, he’ll likely get at least $100 million, with $50 million to $80 million of it fully guaranteed, but we could see Bosa take less guarantees like some of the recent 49ers long term signings, namely Trent Williams, & Fred Warner.
Now, as for how to get the deal done, basically the structure of the deal, it’ll definitely be backloaded, as the cap is expected to explode in either 2023 or 2024, so there won’t be cap issues, especially if the cap goes up each year by $20 million or so.
If the salary cap does explode in 2023, then it would likely come in at around $256 million to $260 million, the same as for 2024, so below is what the salary cap could look like from 2023-2030.
2023: $260 million
2024: $280 million
2025: $300 million
2026: $320 million
2027: $340 million
2028: $360 million
2029: $380 million
2030: $400 million
Now if the year that the cap goes up is 2024, then from 2024-2030 would look like this.
2024: $260 million
2025: $280 million
2026: $300 million
2027: $320 million
2028: $340 million
2029: $360 million
2030: $380 million
So, backloading the contracts that the 49ers did this offseason, like Trent Williams, & Fred Warner, won’t have a negative effect on the salary cap, and the same can be said for Nick Bosa, Deebo Samuel, Dre Greenlaw, Brandon Aiyuk, Javon Kinlaw, and Trey Lance in the future.
So, the structure, he’ll definitely have per game roster bonuses, likely in the $750,000 range, and workout bonuses, likely in the $100,000 range, each year, starting in 2022, I would also take his training camp roster bonus, which is due by July 28th, 2022, which should be the 3rd day of training camp, and turn it into his prorated portion of his signing bonus, likely $30 million, so the 49ers would only need to use $1,694,775, as his roster bonus is $4,305,225, thus his salary cap number would go from $10,805,564 to $12,500,339, so just an increase of $1,694,775.
Now, I wasn’t sure if the 49ers would try something like this, where they turned a players base salary or roster bonus or option bonus into a signing bonus, while either using very little, to no cap room.
But, the 49ers did this, when they extended Fred Warner, they turned the difference of his $3.384 million base salary into a signing bonus, while keeping his 2021 cap number exactly the same as it was before he signed the extension.
Now, the team could create more cap room, as they could either, depending on their play, extend or release defensive end Samson Ebukam, and cornerback Emmanuel Moseley.
Both Ebukam, & Moseley have had strong camps, so I’d think the 49ers would try to extend them, likely in the $6 million a year for Ebukam, and I could see Moseley getting a bump from the $4.692 million, to around $5.5 million a year.
If they did extend them, they’d save, if they were signed to 4-year extensions, to prorate the signing bonus over 5 years, $3.892 million from a Ebukam extension, and $2.692 million from a Moseley extension.
Now, if for sone reason they don’t play up to their contracts, they’d be able to save $5.795 million from releasing Ebukam, and $2.237 million from releasing Moseley, but Moseley’s $4.4 million base salary for 2022 is guaranteed for injury/skill, meaning if he’s cut while hurt, he’d get the $4.4 million, then it becomes fully guaranteed on April 1, 2022.
The 49ers could also restructure George Kittle, and Arik Armstead, which would save the maximum of $8.332 million from restructuring Kittle, if they add 1 voidable year onto his deal, and they’d save a maximum of $10.424 million from restructuring Armstead’s deal again, if they add on 1 more voidable year, as his 2025 contract year will void on the 5th day of the waiver period, which starts after the Super Bowl.
I also have to talk about starting right tackle Mike McGlinchey, who had his 5th-year option exercised back on May 3rd, 2021, in which he will get a fully guaranteed $10.808 million, so it appears the 49ers are committed to McGlinchey, and if so, they could look to extend him, while also saving some cap room.
If they were to sign McGlinchey to a 5-year extension, likely worth around $15 million a year, and they could save as much as $7,818,400, as they would lower his $10.808 million base salary down to the league minimum of $1.035 million, which gives McGlinchey a $9.773 million signing bonus, which would prorate at $1,954,600 a year.
He would most likely get yearly per game roster bonuses, likely around $750,000, and yearly workout bonuses, likely around $100,000, which are what All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams received in his record breaking 6-year deal, worth $138.06 million, and like with Fred Warner’s extension, the 49ers would likely add in an option bonus for 2023, which would then prorate over 5 years, & as far as the amount, likely in the $5.25 million range, which would prorate at $1.05 million from 2023-2027.
We also have to talk about Dee Ford, who has looked good, and looks to be back, but in 2022, he is due a $4.6 million roster bonus, which is injury guaranteed, and the 49ers have to decide not long after the Super Bowl, as the roster bonus is due between the 2nd and 5th day of the waiver period, which begins right after the Super Bowl.
So this one is hard to project, he’ll be on the 53, he’ll play, if he stays healthy, and he gives the 49ers production like he did in 2019, when he had 6.5 sacks, played over 100 snaps in the playoffs, and also had a sack in the playoffs, so if he gives the 49ers numbers like this, he should be brought back.
Finally, I’ll end this with some news that I received from one of my NFL sources, Jimmy Garoppolo has $7.5 million guaranteed for injury in 2021 & 2022, but they don’t become fully guaranteed like most injury guaranteed base salaries that the 49ers do, so 2021’s didn’t become guaranteed, fully, on April 1, 2021, the fact is if Jimmy is cut while hurt then he’ll get the $7.5 million, but since I don’t see a scenario where the 49ers unload Garoppolo, 2021 is a moot point, as once he’s on the week 1 53-Man Roster in Detroit, his $24.1 million base salary is fully guaranteed, just like any player with 4 or more accrued seasons that makes the teams week 1 53-Man Roster, as for 2022, I’m not worried about it, and I doubt the 49ers brass are either.
And speaking of salaries that are guaranteed or become guaranteed, the following 49ers have some or all of their base salary either fully guaranteed, or injury guaranteed, which becomes fully guaranteed on April 1, 2022, or like Jimmy, have just an injury guarantee.
QB Jimmy Garoppolo – $7,500,000 injury guarantee
QB Trey Lance – $825,000 at signing for being a 1st-round pick
FB Kyle Juszczyk – $1,120,000 at signing
WR Brandon Aiyuk – $1,749,214 at signing for being a 1st-round pick
TE George Kittle – $6,367,000 at signing, $5,083,000 on April 1, 2021
C Alex Mack – $500,000 on April 1, 2022
RG Aaron Banks – $981,528 at signing
LT Trent Williams – $7,250,000 at signing
RT Mike McGlinchey – $10,880,000 5th-year option when exercised
DE Nick Bosa – $765,000 at signing for being a 1st-round pick
DE Arik Armstead – $5,850,000 on April 1, 2022
DT Javon Kinlaw – $2,018,064 at signing for being a 1st-round pick
MLB Fred Warner – $1,580,000 at signing, $984,000 on April 1, 2022
CB Emmanuel Moseley – $4,400,000 on April 1, 2022
PK Robbie Gould – $4,000,000 at signing
And, with all of this said, I thank everyone for reading article, as always you can follow me on Twitter @49erscap, or leave a comment below, and I’ll get back to you.
About Author
