5 quarterbacks were selected in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft.
#1 William Trevor Lawrence (Clemson) – Jacksonville Jaguars
#2 Zachary Wilson (BYU) – New York Jets
#3 Trey Lance (North Dakota State) – SF 49ers (via trade with Miami Dolphins)
#11 Justin Fields (Ohio State) – Chicago Bears (via trade with NY Giants)
#15 Michael “Mac” Jones (Alabama) – New England Patriots
NFL team fan bases are very optimistic when a quarterback is drafted in the first round but history tells us when 4 or more quarterbacks are drafted in the first round, 1 maybe 2 will pan out. This draft will be no exception. Before I examine whether I believe Trey Lance was the right choice in this year’s draft, let’s look at the previous drafts this has happened over the last 22 seasons.
2020 – Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert and Jordan Love
It’s too early to put a stamp on this draft class but judging by last year, Justin Herbert looks like the cream of the crop. Herbert was supposed to be the unquestioned first QB taken a year before this draft took place but Joe Burrow put together an historic season at LSU and thus got drafted #1 overall.
A lot of people like Joe Burrow but I don’t trust his offensive line to keep him upright nor any QB for that matter playing for the worst coaching staff in football in an incompetent organization like the Cincinnati Bengals.
The Miami Dolphins defense is solid and they have new toys on offense, if Tua doesn’t break out this year the Dolphins will need to find a new QB. Not only would I never draft a QB from Alabama as long as they are a powerhouse under Nick Saban but I’ve always had questions about Tua coming out of college. I’m stating it now, if the Dolphins want to reach their full potential, Tua isn’t the right person to lead them.
Jordan Love is not a starting NFL QB, not now, not ever. I will never understand how Green Bay screwed up this first round pick by opting to get a QB instead of more help for Aaron Rodgers.
2018 – Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Josh Rosen and Lamar Jackson
The Cleveland Browns chances to win games are higher the less Baker Mayfield throws the football, let that sink in.
Sam Darnold hasn’t been the same since he had mononucleosis. The Carolina Panthers could be his last chance to prove he’s a starting NFL QB.
Josh Allen improved significantly last season throwing the football and has the highest ceiling out of all the QB’s in this draft.
Josh Rosen has been in the NFL 3 seasons, he’s now on his 5th team. This has to be unprecedented because I don’t know of any QB drafted in the 1st round that’s been on 5 teams in 3 years.
Lamar Jackson needs to improve throwing the football especially on timing routes because right now it looks like Lamar Jackson has peaked and I’ve never seen a QB run their way to Super Bowls. The significant games the Baltimore Ravens have lost the last 2 seasons the opposing teams have all used the same formula. Force Lamar Jackson to make rhythmic timing throws consistently to keep the chains moving.
2012 – Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Ryan Tannehill and Brandon Weeden
Andrew Luck was a special talent but injuries derailed his career. Like David Carr and the Houston Texans, Luck was drafted by a team that didn’t have the right coach or GM and thus didn’t protect him.
When asked about my opinion on Robert Griffin III when he was drafted I said he would be irrelevant in 5 years. I was wrong, it was 4 years. Small QB’s that need to run to be successful don’t last long in the NFL.
Ryan Tannehill’s career will continue to be overrated as long as Derrick Henry is playing with him. If Henry gets injured and Tannehill has to carry the team, everyone will remember why the Miami Dolphins didn’t want him.
Brandon Weeden’s talent shouldn’t have been drafted in the 1st round…2nd round…3rd round…4th round…5th round… If you don’t remember or don’t know who drafted him, the Cleveland Browns.
2004 – Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger and J.P. Losman
I know most people have Eli Manning in the Hall of Fame because he won 2 Super Bowls against the Patriots and of course his last name is Manning. I don’t think Eli is Hall-of-Famer mainly because he played 16 seasons and only won playoff games in 2 seasons…the seasons he had very good defenses and therefore won the Super Bowl both seasons.
Rivers is better than Eli Manning in my opinion and should be a Hall of Famer.
…..Roethlisberger too.
J.P. Losman is not worth talking about. If you don’t know who he is don’t feel bad because I’m sure Buffalo Bills fans forgot him too.
2003 – Carson Palmer, Byron Leftwich, Kyle Boller and Rex Grossman
Carson Palmer played for the Cincinnati Bengals, Oakland Raiders and Arizona Cardinals. It’s not a coincidence he only won 1 playoff game in a 14-year career.
Byron Leftwich will be best known for being carried to the line of scrimmage by his offensive lineman while in college at Marshall and being the offensive coordinator for the Super Bowl Champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Notice I didn’t mention any highlights of him doing anything in actual games.
Kyle Boller was just a guy with a big strong arm….
Rex Grossman threw one of best looking footballs ever by any QB in history, it just wasn’t accurate.
1999 – Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb, Akili Smith, Daunte Culpepper and Cade McNown
Tim Couch is one of many terrible QB choices by the Cleveland Browns. His career lasted 5 seasons, all with the Browns.
Donovan McNabb’s career turned out better than expected because he had Andy Reid for 11 of his 13 seasons.
Akili Smith was drafted #3 overall by the Cincinnati Bengals. Stats for his 4-year career: 5 TD’s 13 INT’s.
Daunte Culpepper had some early success when Cris Carter and Randy Moss were his wide receivers. Everything went downhill when he didn’t play with these players. This guy was 6’5” 260 pounds and fumbled 102 times in his career from the QB position. I don’t know how that’s possible. He lost 39 of those fumbles.
Cade McNown went from UCLA to a 2-year career with the Chicago Bears to out of the NFL.
As you can see, when so many quarterbacks are drafted in the 1st round, the odds are slim that 2 of the quarterbacks will pan out. Due to past history and being a die-hard 49er fan I understand why a lot of people asked me who the 49ers should select with the 3rd overall pick. My answer to each and every person through text, phone conversation or in-person without hesitation was Trey Lance. Here are 7 reasons why:
1) Draft capital – An NFL team should only give up 3 1st round picks and a 3rd round pick to select a franchise QB with a high ceiling. Only 2 QB’s fit the bill here, Trevor Lawrence and Trey Lance. In my opinion Trey Lance’s ceiling is higher than Trevor Lawrence but Lawrence is more ready to start Week 1.
2) Trevor Lawrence – it was a forgone conclusion months before the draft that Trevor Lawrence would be the #1 pick. I see the tools that other evaluators see and he can make all of the NFL throws on the route tree. He’s a bit too skinny for my taste and though he’s not a statue, I don’t think he’s as athletic as people think he is. Also a lot of his hype came after Clemson dominated Alabama in the national championship game in 2019. Lawrence had plenty of time to throw in that game due to Clemson’s offensive line dominance of Alabama’s defensive line. Having said all this, I believe Lawrence has a real chance to succeed with Urban Meyer.
3) North Dakota State offense – The NDSU Bison ran a pro-style offense under Lance with concepts similar to Kyle Shanahan’s offense. This is huge because the concepts Lance will have to run for Shanahan won’t be foreign to him and should be easy to learn. Shanahan uses a fullback whereas a lot of college offenses don’t. In Shanahan’s offense the QB will have his back towards the defense then turn around process the defense quickly and make a throw. Most of the prolific college offenses now are in shotgun or never require the QB to have his back toward the defense (like Jared Goff at Cal-Berkeley). If you’ve never had your back to the defense in college it’s not easy to get adjusted to doing this in the NFL.
4) Skills – Trey Lance is a big strong kid who can not only run but make all of the NFL throws on a route tree. As long as Lance can take care of the ball and the protection is relatively decent, the 49ers offense should be dynamic with Lance under center. The 49ers defense has given up many backbreaking 1st downs to opposing teams quarterbacks such as Russell Wilson, Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson to keep their drives alive. With Trey Lance the 49ers have a QB that can put pressure on a defense to keep drives alive with his legs. In addition, unlike Jimmy Garoppolo who prefers to work the middle of the field and is hesitant to turn the ball loose downfield, Trey Lance has no problem slinging it downfield outside the numbers. The 49ers offense can be less predictable and harder to stop with Lance at QB due to his throwing and running ability.
5) Work Ethic – All reports indicate that Trey Lance is a grinder. This is an underrated yet very important aspect of being an NFL QB. You hear about quarterbacks that don’t put in the time to learn the playbook inside and out, put in the extra work after practice, put in extra time with wide receivers, watch film to breakdown the opposing teams strengths and weaknesses for their upcoming game. (Look up the story of JaMarcus Russell and the blank tape the Raiders gave him). This is not to say if you put in the work you will automatically become a good or great NFL QB, but I’d rather have a guy that puts in the work and who teammates and coaches sees puts in the work rather than a guy that doesn’t, is the first person gone when practice is over, nor has the drive to be a very successful NFL QB on the field.
6) Past Super Bowl winners – There are only 2 QB’s that have won a Super Bowl in a Shanahan offense, John Elway and Steve Young. That’s it, that’s the list. The QB’s Mike and Kyle Shanahan have coached not named these 2 guys, none have come close to the skill set of both Elway and Young EXCEPT Trey Lance. Don’t say Robert Griffin III because he was a world class runner only, he was not a good thrower of the football.
7) Other Quarterbacks drafted in the 1st round – I have a rule not to draft a QB from a powerhouse Division 1 college program (Ex. Alabama, Ohio State or USC and Miami, FL when they’re good) because the talent around them is usually far superior than their competition so the QB is hardly ever in uncomfortable situations or can get away with making very basic throws and letting the receivers do the work. The NFL is all about being uncomfortable and mental toughness because week to week you won’t always have the vastly superior team. Excluding Trevor Lawrence, here’s how I feel about the other quarterbacks drafted in the first round.
Zach Wilson – will be a bust, should’ve been drafted in the 5th round or later. This is too big of a jump from BYU against marginal competition to starting for an NFL team in the New York media market.
Justin Fields – I don’t understand the hype around Fields because I have way too many questions about him. Without question he’s physically and athletically more gifted than Jake Fromm but couldn’t beat him at Georgia for the starting QB position. Fromm was drafted in the 5th round by the Buffalo Bills last year. Fields took 49 sacks at Ohio State which is unimaginable considering Ohio State has the 1st or 2nd best offensive line in the Big 10 every year in addition to Fields running ability. He doesn’t look comfortable in the pocket once the first read is not open and I think he will be manipulated by good NFL safeties. Fields should’ve been drafted in the 4th round or later and will ultimately be a bust especially if he’s with the Chicago Bears. (See comment above about powerhouse D-1 programs).
Mac Jones – The only reason I give Mac Jones a slight chance to succeed is because he’s playing for Bill Belichick. Mac has the smarts to play QB and understands leading a receiver and throwing with anticipation but this isn’t Alabama. Receivers won’t be open by at least 5 yards regularly and he will be pressured and chased by NFL defensive lineman and linebackers. If you haven’t seen Mac Jones try to escape pressure and buy time it’s not good. I don’t question if he’ll be successful in clean pockets, my concern is the lack of athleticism to be able to buy extra time and how will he be successful when the pocket isn’t clean with chaos around him. Mac Jones is a 4th round or later talent. (See comment above about powerhouse D-1 programs).
I didn’t buy into the Mac Jones to the 49ers hype and I was hoping the 49ers didn’t draft him because I don’t want to see him under center with Aaron Donald (Rams), Chandler Jones (Cardinals) or Bobby Wagner (Seattle) on the other side coming after him.
Most people think if you’re a QB in the NFL the most important thing is when you get drafted and it’s not. What team drafts you is the most important thing. Playing for the Cincinnati Bengals, head coach Zac Taylor, and owner Mike Brown who’s involved in personnel decisions OR playing for the NY Jets, a first-time head coach, talent deficient roster and eccentric owner Woody Johnson is a lot worse than going lower in the draft inheriting Kyle Shanahan, the San Francisco 49ers culture and deep roster talent when healthy.
The 49ers absolutely made the right decision by taking the QB with the highest potential ceiling, great work ethic, skillset to learn the offense and familiarity with Shanahan’s concepts to go along with his physical tools to drive the ball downfield and make plays with his legs.
My San Francisco 49er content is exclusively for 49erscap.com. Follow me on Twitter @peerless1sports. Thank you for reading and feel free to leave a comment or question.
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