As of 8/13/21 below are the odds to win the NFC West per WilliamHILL Sportsbook:
LA Rams +180
SF 49ers +200
Seattle +280
Arizona +575
This information means the Rams are the favorite to win the NFC West and the SF 49ers are favored to come in second, with Seattle third and Arizona last. This information also says if you want to bet $100 on the Rams to win the division, you get back $180 if they do. If you bet $100 on Arizona to win the division, you get back $575 if they do because they have the worst odds to win the toughest division in football therefore you will get back more money.
The NFL is considered the hardest sport to make money gambling because the lines and odds are usually on point so you have to look hard to find edges to exploit. I believe the oddsmakers have overvalued the Los Angeles Rams and here are 6 reasons why.
1) Cam Akers’ injury – I don’t hear anyone talking about the injury to Cam Akers, the workhorse and best RB on the Rams roster. Akers tore his Achilles and will miss the entire 2021 season. In addition, power back Malcolm Brown now plays for the Miami Dolphins. We saw during the 2018-2019 season the Rams offense wasn’t nearly as potent when their workhorse RB Todd Gurley wasn’t in the game and had a “mysterious” injury. Sean McVay’s offense relies on that workhorse RB and he doesn’t have that caliber player on this roster.
2) 49ers have fared well against Matt Stafford – The 49ers are 3-1 lifetime against Matt Stafford. The only loss came when the 49ers had a QB starting who shouldn’t start for any NFL team – Blaine Gabbert. Some will say Stafford was playing for the Detroit Lions, traditionally a poorly run franchise, but the 49ers have seen enough of him over the years to know how to play against him.
3) Kyle Shanahan & Jimmy Garoppolo – Shanahan has swept Sean McVay the last two years, going 4-0. During this time the 49ers clearly had the worse team and were underdogs in 3 of the 4 games, yet still won all 4 games. The 49ers basically beat the Rams last season on 11/29/20 with backups. Garoppolo, George Kittle among others didn’t play and Nick Mullens had no TD’s and an interception but still won the game. Jimmy Garoppolo has never lost against the Rams since the 49ers traded for him in 2017, going 4-0.
4) New defensive coordinator – Brandon Staley, the Rams defensive coordinator last season is now the head coach of the Los Angeles Chargers. Raheem Morris from the Atlanta Falcons was hired to replace Staley. In my opinion, this is a slight step down in coaching for the Rams. I understand the players on the Rams are different than the players on the Falcons (more on that later), but Morris doesn’t strike fear in offensive coordinators around the NFL. The 49ers have a new defensive coordinator, DeMeco Ryans, but he’s been in the 49ers organization since he started coaching back in 2017, and has helped develop guys like Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw. In addition, the 49ers have groomed DeMeco for this position over the last 2+ seasons because it was a matter of time before Robert Saleh got a head coaching position, which he did with the New York Jets.
5) Seattle Seahawks – Seattle has been flying under the radar during this off-season and they’ve quietly made some nice additions and re-signings to the their team. Seattle isn’t letting “Russ cook” this season. They are going back to what Pete Carroll knows and that’s play defense, pound the football with the run game and for Wilson to do his thing when they need him to. In my opinion, this is the team the 49ers need to be leery of winning the NFC West because the 49ers have never been able to tame Russell Wilson. Since Seattle drafted Russell Wilson in 2012, he’s 15-4 against the 49ers.
6) Roster – The 49ers roster is better overall and deeper (when healthy) than the LA Rams. In my opinion, the Rams roster is built similarly to the Dallas Cowboys where there are 3 or so big name guys making a lot of money eating up the salary cap and the rest of the roster is blah. Coincidently, Rams owner Stan Kroenke and Cowboys owner Jerry Jones are very good friends, which might explain why their rosters are similar and their stadiums are expensive and extravagant. The Rams weakest position unit is linebacker, then the interior offensive line. Slot corner isn’t a unit, but it’s also a weakness for the Rams along with defensive line depth. The 49ers have always been able to exploit the lack of talent and playmakers the Rams have at LB.
I have until the start of the regular season to make changes but as of 8/13/21, this is my prediction for the NFC West:
1st – Seattle Seahawks
2nd – SF 49ers
3rd – LA Rams
4th – Arizona Cardinals
I don’t like the Seahawks as much as any other 49ers fan, but Russell Wilson plays every game, every season – and Jimmy Garoppolo doesn’t. I believe Trey Lance will start games this season for the 49ers due to Garoppolo injury. If this happens, Lance could lose enough games to give Seattle the division by a game or two. Regardless if this happens or not, I still have the 49ers in the playoffs. I have the Rams in the playoffs as well but not as champions of the NFC West or as a team with a better record than the 49ers.
My 49er content is exclusively for 49erscap.com, and follow me on Twitter @peerless1sports. Thank you for reading and feel free to leave a comment or question.
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