So, in recent days Miami Dolphins cornerback Xavien Howard has asked for a trade, as he’s unhappy with his contract, and doesn’t feel valued.
And of course, just like whenever a big name player comes available, 49ers fans jump on the idea of trading for that player, like Julio Jones, so here we are again, just like when I talked about how trading for Julio wasn’t feasible, well, today we’re talking about why trading for Howard isn’t feasible, or smart, both for this season, and beyond.
Howard is due to make the following.
2021: $12.075 million base salary
2022: $12.375 million base salary, $500,000 per game roster bonus, $100,000 workout bonus
2023: $11.4 million base salary, $500,000 per game roster bonus, $100,000 workout bonus
2024: $11.65 million base salary, $500,000 per game roster bonus, $100,000 workout bonus.
As of now, the 49ers have $12,026,489 in salary cap room, but that number is highly deceiving, as it only accounts for the top 51 players, and as I’ve gone over several times, the 49ers will have, as the maximum, between $4.5 million to $5.5 million when the season begins.
Now I know some will say, well how can that be, well, as I said the top 51 rule is in effect, so when the season begins every player under contract will count against the cap.
Players 52 & 53 will take up at the minimum $660,000 each, which is $1.32 million combined, and the practice squad will take up at the maximum of $3.168 million if the 49ers sign 10 players with 2 or less accrued years, and the maximum of 6 players with 3 or more accrued years.
The 49ers recently got their biggest 2022 free agent to be extended, in middle linebacker Fred Warner, so there isn’t anyone else who should or will be extended, as players like Nick Bosa, who I went over yesterday, Deebo Samuel, & Dre Greenlaw aren’t eligible until 2022, while Mike McGlinchey is under contract for 2022, and the 49ers will likely want to see how he performs before committing a good amount to a right tackle.
Now, the 49ers do have some options to create cap room, most notably restructuring the contracts of quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, left guard Laken Tomlinson, defensive end Arik Armstead, & free safety Jimmie Ward, and I’ll detail each below.
If the 49ers were to redo Garoppolo’s deal, the maximum they can save is $18.42 million, which is a lot, but his 2022 cap savings from a release or trade would go from $25.6 million to just $7.18 million.
Now the 49ers could just do what the minimum they can save would be, which would be just $11,512,500, but still the savings for 2022 go from $25.6 million to $14,087,500, which is a good amount, but I have the 49ers projected, after base salary escalations for Deebo Samuel, Dre Greenlaw, & Mitch Wishnowsky, to be around $7,716,827 over the 2022 cap, if it does hit the agreed upon ceiling of $208.2 million, which would leave the team with just a bit over $7 million in cap room before adding Howard.
So, Garoppolo is a definite no, the team, in no way, will touch his contract, not only would be a disaster to do so, but imagine the backlash from fans, who already think Jimmy is paid too much, which he is, but now he ends up getting another $23.065 million in guaranteed money from this restructure.
And fans would likely want John Lynch & Kyle Shanahan fired if they did this, and it ended up going badly.
Next up is Laken Tomlinson, who already is set to count $1,005,530 against the teams 2022 cap in dead money due to the 2020 restructure the 49ers were forced to do.
If they did restructure, or even extend Tomlinson, as he is one of the 2022 pending free agents I’d like to see the 49ers bring back, they’d save the maximum of $2.808 million, and if it’s just a restructure, then the 49ers lose $2.808 million in 2022 cap room, as it’ll be added on to his current dead money hit.
Tomlinson already has 3 voidable years on his deal from last years restructure, so to get the $2.808 million, they’d need to add 1 more void year, to spread the bonus over 5 seasons, but the minimum they can save would be $2,632,500, while also adding $2,632,500 to Tomlinson’s dead money hit.
Now, Tomlinson was one of those contracts I would have been ok with had they needed to do a restructure to sign Fred Warner, but because they just lowered his base salary, using the remainder as his prorated portion of his signing bonus, his cap number stayed the same.
I would rather the 49ers extend Tomlinson, rather than restructure his deal, that way at least, they have a proven left guard under contract for the next 4-5 years, while the younger guys like Jaylon Moore, & Colton McKikvitz develop, and so they don’t have dead money for a player no longer on the team due to a restructure.
Next is Arik Armstead, who already has enough years left, due to the 2025 year being voidable, to get the maximum savings, which would be $4.528 million, but the effect of this is, it adds on $1.132 million to his 2022-2024 cap numbers, plus $1.132 million in dead money for 2025, as he already will have $1.5 million in dead money if the 49ers don’t extend him before his deal voids.
This was the one deal I was going to say yes, restructure it, because you only lose $1.132 million in cap room from 2022-2024, by 2025 the cap will be in the $280 million range, and I thought the 49ers would need to use cap room to extend Warner, well that wasn’t the case.
The 49ers may still restructure his deal in season, since the team needs to payback a bit over $1.432 million in per game roster bonuses to 15 players, plus that the fact that injuries are very likely, plus salary cap room gets eaten up very quickly in season.
Finally, we have Jimmie Ward, who is signed through 2022, so if the 49ers restructured his deal, the maximum they can save is $5.86 million, but his 2022 cap savings if released, would go from $7.5 million to just $1.64 million.
It’s very possible that Ward plays out his deal, especially with the injury to Tarvarius Moore, who I feel was being groomed to take over for Ward in 2022.
The minimum they can save with a restructure is $3,662,500, but his savings would go from the $7.5 million to $3,837,500, and this is another contract that I think would be a mistake to touch, and the fan base would be pissed, as many see Ward as not being worth the money.
Now, let’s look at the 49ers 2022 cap situation as it pertains to the idea of trading for Howard.
The 49ers, as I said, will likely be $7,716,827 over the cap in 2022, and also, as I said, they’ll save $25.6 million, well $24.875 million due to the top 51 rule, when they release or trade Jimmy Garoppolo, which leaves the team with $17,178,173 in salary cap room, while Howard will cost $12.975 million in 2022, which would leave them, after the top 51 rule, with $4,908,173 in salary cap room for 2022.
Now, that is nowhere near enough money to operate in 2022, they won’t be able to re-sign anyone, or go out in free agency to sign anyone to replace the likes of running backs Raheem Mostert & Jeff Wilson Jr., left guard Laken Tomlinson, nose tackle D.J. Jones, cornerbacks Jason Verrett & K’Waun Williams, and strong safety Jaquiski Tartt, plus be able to sign their own 2022 draft picks.
Also, you have to remember that the 49ers will have 3 key players become eligible for extensions as I mentioned earlier, wide receiver Deebo Samuel, defensive end Nick Bosa, & weakside linebacker Dre Greenlaw.
If you read my article from yesterday, you’ll see that I would extend Bosa the same way that they extended Fred Warner, but by using his training camp roster bonus, plus around $1.7 million, to be his prorated portion of a potential $30 million signing bonus.
So, as you can see, if they were to trade for Xavien Howard, they’d be at risk of losing some good players in 2022, while also not having the flexibility to extend Bosa, Samuel, or Greenlaw, plus sign their own 2022 draft picks.
And, also, I didn’t go into what it could take to get Howard from the Dolphins.
I’d imagine the 49ers would have to give up multiple day 2 picks, as they don’t have a 1st-rounder until 2024, while they have a 2nd-rounder & 3rd-rounder in 2022, & a 2nd-round, & 2 3rd-rounders in 2023, picks that the 49ers will need to replenish the roster.
The fact is, making a move for Howard, is just, not feasible, sure they can restructure some of those 4 players, which by the way, are the only contracts they can restructure to gain cap room in 2021, but it will hurt them further down the road, as the cap isn’t going to go up significantly, unlike what some may think, as it should have been around $215 million this year, & $225 million in 2022, but the cap fell by $15.7 million to $182.5 million for 2021, & the agreed upon cap ceiling for 2022 is just $208.2 million.
The explosion isn’t expected until 2023 at the earliest, and even that year, I’m not so sure it will happen, as players, agents, & teams are banking on the new TV deals, which don’t kick in until 2023, to help regain what the NFL lost in 2022 do to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.
Now, if the cap hadn’t went down, then the 49ers wouldn’t have an issue with bringing in a veteran at cornerback, or an EDGE rusher, or a veteran slot wide receiver, but the fact is, the cap went down by $15.7 million, the first time it’s went down, so the 49ers salary cap for 2021 is very tight, despite being able to retain most of their key free agents.
So with all of this said, I thank everyone for reading article, as always you can follow me on Twitter @49erscap, or leave a comment below, and I’ll get back to you.
About Author
