Back on June 4th, I took a look at the 49ers 2023 salary cap situation, which can be found here, but with defensive rookie of the year Nick Bosa set to make his return from a week 2 torn ACL, I think it’s a good time to take another look at what the 2023 salary cap will look like with Bosa’s 5th-year option included, plus the injuries to Jeff Wilson Jr., & Tarvarius Moore taken into consideration.
First off, the 49ers have 22 players signed for 2023, that is when they sign their last 3 unsigned picks, that will count $109,612,772 against the cap, but they’ll also have $6,909,999 in dead money, $2 million from Jimmie Ward’s void year, and $4,909,999 from Dee Ford’s 2021 restructure, which made his 2023 contract year a void year, which will account for $116,522,771.
The current projection for the 2023 salary cap is $225 million, though some believe it may see a big bump, in the $256 million range, but for now let’s stay conservative, and say it’s going to be $225 million, which would give the team, before factoring in the top 51 rule, $108,477,229 in cap room.
If we take into consideration the top 51 rule, 29 spots making at least the rookie minimum of $750,000, which would take away $21.75 million in cap room, leaving the 49ers with $86,727,229 in cap room.
Now, this is where Bosa comes in to play, right now he’s projected to have a $16.788 million cap hit, which is the equivalent of the transition tag for 2022, if he makes this seasons Pro Bowl, he’ll get the franchise tag amount, which is projected to be $20.274 million, so the 49ers cap room would be between $70,689,229 to $67,203,229.
Of course of the 22 players signed for 2023, it doesn’t include several players that the 49ers will most likely re-sign/extend, including wide receiver Deebo Samuel($8.5 million a year), right tackle Mike McGlinchey($15 million a year), weakside linebacker Dre Greenlaw($8 million a year), & middle linebacker Fred Warner($19 million a year).
The last time I took a look at the 49ers 2023 salary cap, I projected that those players would have a combined $28.5 million, but after factoring in the top 51 rule, they’d account for $25.5 million, which would give the 49ers between $45,189,229 to $41,703,229 in cap room for 2023.
Now, last time I didn’t have Jimmie Ward factored into 2023, either on an extension or having dead money, as I assumed the 49ers would cut Ward in 2022, but with the injury to Tarvarius Moore, it’s looking more likely that Ward will play out his 3-year, $28.5 million deal.
As for other players that I believe could be back, depending on how well they do, I had the following returning, center Daniel Brunskill($2 million a year), defensive end Samson Ebukam($6.5 million a year), defensive tackle Kevin Givens($2.5 million a year), nose tackle D.J. Jones($5 million a year), cornerbacks Jason Verrett($8 million a year), & Emmanuel Moseley($5.5 million a year), free safety Tarvarius Moore($3.5 million a year), punter Mitch Wishnowsky($2.5 million a year), & long snapper Taybor Pepper($1.25 million a year), with them accounting for $28.585 million, but when factoring in the top 51 rule, it would be $21.835 million, which would give the 49ers between $23,354,229 to $19,868,229 in cap room.
The 49ers would have 36 players signed, of course the 49ers 5 UDFAs from this season likely won’t be on the 49ers, which would give the 49ers 31 players signed, along with an additional $981,002 in cap room, bringing them up to between $24,335,231 to $20,849,231 in cap room.
As for why I say between, the first number is if Bosa’s 5th-year option is just the transition tag, and the second number is if Bosa gets the franchise tag, which will require him to make the Pro Bowl this season, which if healthy, shouldn’t be a hard task to do.
Also, that cap room I have them at, even though I have 31 players signed, in reality, they would have at least 51 players signed, due to the top 51 rule.
Ok, there were a few more players that I can see being here, depending again on how well they play, those being, wide receiver Jalen Hurd, tight end Ross Dwelley, defensive end Arden Key, defensive tackle Maurice Hurst Jr., & strong safety Marcell Harris, and for those 5 players I said at most a $2.5 million cap hit each, so $12.5 million, but when factoring in the top 51 rule, it’s $8.75 million, leaving then with between $15,585,231 to $12,099,231 in cap room.
The 49ers would then have 36 actual players signed, despite the fact that the cap room reflects them having enough players to fill out the top 51 rule.
Below would be the 36 players signed.
QB Trey Lance – $9,281,559
RB Trey Sermon – $1,328,982
RB Elijah Mitchell – $985,893
FB Kyle Juszcyzk – $6,588,750
WR Brandon Aiyuk – $3,987,248
WR Deebo Samuel – $5,000,000
WR Jalen Hurd – $2,500,000
TE George Kittle – $16,300,000
TE Ross Dwelley – $2,500,000
TE Charlie Woerner – $1,055,258
C Alex Mack – $5,075,000
C Daniel Brunskill – $2,000,000
LG Colton McKivitz – $1,092,445
LG Jaylon Moore – $1,020,759
RG Aaron Banks – $1,911,166
LT Trent Williams – $26,270,000
RT Mike McGlinchey – $8,500,000
DE Arik Armstead – $21,740,000
DE Nick Bosa – $16,788,000
DE Samson Ebukam – $3,500,000
DE Arden Key – $2,500,000
DT Javon Kinlaw – $4,928,223
DT Kevin Givens – $2,000,000
DT Maurice Hurst Jr. – $2,500,000
NT D.J. Jones – $6,500,000
WLB Dre Greenlaw – $4,500,000
MLB Fred Warner – $10,500,000
CB Jason Verrett – $5,000,000
CB Emmanuel Moseley – $3,500,000
CB Ambry Thomas – $1,305,232
CB Deommodore Lenoir – $1,011,217
FS Tarvarius Moore – $3,700,000
SS Talanoa Hufanga – $1,000,038
SS Marcell Harris – $2,500,000
P Mitch Wishnowsky – $1,205,000
LS Taybor Pepper – $1,180,000
Now, of course, this doesn’t include the teams 2022 draft picks, or whoever they would select in the 2023 draft.
But, the 49ers would have a pretty solid group of players, with little holes to fill, as I’d envision the starters & key role players to be as follows.
QB: Trey Lance
RB: Trey Sermon
FB: Kyle Juszyzck
WR: Brandon Aiyuk
WR: Deebo Samuel
Slot WR: Jalen Hurd
TE: George Kittle
TE #2: Ross Dwelley
C: Alex Mack
Backup C/Swing T: Daniel Brunskill
LG: Jaylon Moore
RG: Aaron Banks
Swing G/T: Colton McKivitz
LT: Trent Williams
RT: Mike McGlinchey
EDGE: Nick Bosa
EDGE: Samson Ebukam
DE/DT: Arik Armstead
DT: Javon Kinlaw
NT: D.J. Jones
WLB: Dre Greenlaw
MLB: Fred Warner
SLB/SS: Marcell Harris
CB: Jason Verrett
CB: Emmanuel Moseley
CB #3: Ambry Thomas
Slot CB: Deommodore Lenoir
FS: Tarvarius Moore
SS: Talanoa Hufanga
P: Mitch Wishnowsky
LS: Taybor Pepper
Returner: Elijah Mitchell
Now, obviously, I’m missing a place kicker, either Robbie Gould is brought back, if he’s still playing at a high level, and doesn’t decide to retire or go back home to Chicago.
Also, there’s no guarantee that all, or any of these players either pan out, or taking deals I have them taking, and if the cap does indeed see an explosion in 2023 to around $256 million, then some of these deals may be higher.
Another thing that would be helpful to the 49ers is if the cap does indeed hit $256 million in 2023, which would give the team between $46,585,231 to $43,099,231, which would give the team a good amount of money to extend Aiyuk & Kinlaw, as the 49ers will have until May 3, 2023 to exercise their 5th-year options for 2024.
Some players that I’m unsure of what their future with the 49ers is, include, running backs Raheem Mostert, & Jeff Wilson Jr., left guard Laken Tomlinson, nose tackle Zach Kerr, strongside linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair, cornerback K’Waun Williams, free safety Jimmie Ward, & strong safety Jaquiski Tartt.
If the team doesn’t feel that either Jaylon Moore or Colton McKivitz are ready to be a starter, then the 49ers will likely keep Tomlinson, as he’s been basically an iron man for the team since arriving.
As for the safety spots, if Moore doesn’t fully recover, and if Hufanga doesn’t show he’s ready to start at strong safety, then I can see the 49ers bringing back Ward, & Tartt.
As for what kind of deals Tomlinson, Ward, & Tartt can expect, honestly that’s an unknown as of now.
I can see the team bringing back one of the running backs, with Mostert giving you the big play & speed ability, and Wilson giving you the big bruising back, who’s a scoring machine, and while it’d be nice to have both back, I just don’t know if they’ll be able to afford both, as Mostert will likely want in the $5 million a year, at minimum, which means Wilson should be cheaper, in the $3.5 million a year range, but would they bring either back with Trey Sermon & Elijah Mitchell on the roster?
K’Waun Williams is another unknown, if Lenoir doesn’t show enough to the 49ers that he’s ready to take over as the teams new slot cornerback, then I can definitely see them re-signing K’Waun, as he is, honestly, one of the best, if not the best, slot cornerbacks in the NFL.
So with all of this said, I thank everyone for reading article, as always you can follow me on Twitter @49erscap, or leave a comment below, and I’ll get back to you.
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