Last month I went over what the 49ers really have or will have in salary cap room for 2021 after the injuries to Jeff Wilson Jr., Justin Skule, & Tarvarius Moore, but today I want to take a look at what kind of impact these injuries could have on the 2022 cap, so let’s get started.
As of now, the 49ers have 36 players signed for 2022, that is once they sign their last 3 draft picks(Trey Lance, Trey Sermon, & Ambry Thomas), they will account for $189,890,307, along with a projected $4,459,181 in dead money, that gives them a total of $194,349,488 in committed salaries between active players & dead money.
Now if the cap does hit the ceiling of $208.2 million, the 49ers right now would be sitting at, before a Fred Warner extension, or the top 51 rule, with just $13,850,512 in cap room, and when we factor in the top 51 rule, they’re just $3,275,512 under the cap.
Also, we have to account for 3 players who could or will see their salaries escalate due to the PPE(Proven Performance Escalator), that would take away $3,513,360, which would put the 49ers at just $237,848 under the cap, again before a Fred Warner extensions.
I’ve been very vocal about what I think the 49ers will give Warner when he does sign a new deal, a 5-year extension, running through 2026, worth between $19 million to $20 million, a $15 million signing bonus, so it only takes up $3 million in 2021 cap room, plus a protected option bonus in 2022, along with base salary guarantees, per game roster bonuses, workout bonuses, and as far as guaranteed money, I expect in the $40 million or more range.
What I also believe is that the 49ers will do something similar to what they did with George Kittle, & Trent Williams, and that is, have some injury guarantees in there that become fully guaranteed on April 1 of the previous year, so for example, on April 1, 2022, $5.05 million of Trent Williams’ 2023 base salary becomes fully guaranteed.
And also like with Kittle’s deal, they’ll likely get the 2022 cap number to come in around $5.5 million.
So after we factor in a projected Warner extension, with a $5.5 million cap number, plus the top 51 rule, the 49ers would be $4,557,152 over the 2022 salary cap.
Now, we all know that Jimmy Garoppolo isn’t the future at quarterback for the 49ers, so by unloading his deal, either via trade or a release, they’ll save, after the top 51 rule, $24.895 million, which would give the team $20,337,848 in cap room to begin the 2022 offseason with.
Now I mentioned the injuries the 49ers have, and how that would effect the 2022 cap, well the main one is the injury to free safety Tarvarius Moore, who I think many 49ers fans were hoping to see ball out, and make Jimmie Ward expendable, but now with the torn Achilles, we likely won’t see much, if any, of Moore in 2021.
So, before the injury the 49ers could have saved $6.795 million, but now it’s looking like Ward will indeed see the entire 3-year, $28 million deal he signed last offseason.
I also expect Moore to be back on the Four Year Qualifying Contract exception, which pays the player more in cash, but it counts less against the cap.
Now I have to talk about 2021, because the team will be looking at around $4.5 million to $5 million in cap room, before a Warner extension, but with their practice squad signed, so they’re going to need to create some cap room somehow.
The 2 obvious answers are restructuring Laken Tomlinson and/or Arik Armstead, which would free up a total of $7.336 million, while adding $1.132 million to Armstead’s 2022-2024 cap numbers, and also adding $2.808 million in dead money for Tomlinson, due to his restructure last season, as he already is scheduled to have a $1,005,530 dead money hit, of course the team could extend him, which wouldn’t free cap room up, but would 1. Have their left guard signed to a multi-year deal, and 2. Make it so there is no dead money, just a cap number, as if they waited till his deal voids, they’d have both dead money, & a new cap number if they bring Tomlinson back.
So for the sake of argument, if the 49ers were to redo both Tomlinson & Armstead, that $20 million will go down to $16,397,848 to be exact, which in my opinion is enough to bring back whoever they feel are their key free agents.
In my opinion, their key free agents after 2021 are, running backs Raheem Mostert & Jeff Wilson Jr., left guard Laken Tomlinson, nose tackle D.J. Jones, cornerbacks Jason Verrett, & K’Waun Williams, free safety Tarvarius Moore, and strong safety Jaquiski Tartt.
I also believe players like running back Wayne Gallman Jr., wide receiver Trent Sherfield, tight ends MyCole Pruitt, & Ross Dwelley, defensive end Arden Key, defensive tackle Maurice Hurst Jr., nose tackle Zach Kerr, free safety Tony Jefferson, and strong safety Marcell Harris can be brought back on cheap 1 or 2 year deals.
I didn’t list the likes of center Daniel Brunskill, defensive tackle Kevin Givens, and strongside linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair are either RFAs or ERFAs, so they’re easy to bring back, they can always do 1-year deals for their RFAs, like they did this offseason with Jeff Wilson Jr., Ross Dwelley, & Marcell Harris to avoid having to tender them, which next year would be at the minimum of $2.396 million.
Back to 2022, the 49ers can easily create more cap room if needed, if they restructure George Kittle, they’d save $8.332 million, and by redoing Armstead again, they’d save $10.424 million.
The other way they can create cap room is by extending players like right tackle Mike McGlinchey, defensive end Samson Ebukam, & cornerback Emmanuel Moseley, but these would be based on how they play in 2022, the 49ers can get out of Ebukam & Moseley’s deals without losing money, outside of their prorated bonus, while McGlinchey’s $10.808 5th-year option is already fully guaranteed.
The 49ers could use that cap room to extend 3 key players who will be extension eligible, wide receiver Deebo Samuel, defensive end Nick Bosa, and weakside linebacker Dre Greenlaw.
Bosa’s 5th-year option will be picked up, they’ll have until May 3, 2022 to exercise it, which would be either the transition tag number for 2022, which is projected to be $16.788 million, which he’s guaranteed to get, as he’s already made 1 Pro Bowl, and if he makes the Pro Bowl for this season, which he should, he’ll get the franchise tag amount, which is projected to be $20.274 million, but they have no effect on the 2022 cap, that number, whichever it is will be for 2023.
So there will be ways to create cap room in 2022, so this article isn’t a doom & gloom, but a reinsurance that the 49ers will be fine for 2022 and beyond.
So for anyone who says that John Lynch put the 49ers in cap hell, and we won’t get our guys back, I’d tell them 1. We’re in a pandemic, which saw the 2021 cap decrease by $15.7 million, 2. As I said about the 2021 offseason, we would bring back Trent Williams, Kyle Juszyzck, and most of their core players, and 3. 2022’s offseason isn’t as bad as 2021, as there is no Trent Williams or Kyle Juszyzck caliber player to be re-signed.
So with all of this said, I thank everyone for reading article, as always you can follow me on Twitter @49erscap, or leave a comment below, and I’ll get back to you.
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