Lately I’ve been breaking down the 49ers 2021 & 2022 salary cap situation, but I thought why not look further than 2022, so in this article I’m going to take a look at the 49ers 2023 salary cap situation.
So, as of now, the 49ers have 22 players signed for 2023, accounting for $109,617,772, they’ll also have a dead money hit of $6,909,999 from Dee Ford’s restructure this offseason, & from Jimmie Ward’s voidable year in 2023, so if the salary cap is, let’s be conservative, and say $225 million, the 49ers would have, right now, $108,477,229 in cap room, but of course it doesn’t factor in the top 51 rule.
So, with 22 players signed, including the teams 5 2021 UDFAs, the league minimum in 2023 will be $750,000, that’s $21.75 million for the remaining 29 players, so they would be $86,727,229 under the salary cap.
Now let’s look at who is signed for 2023, and their cap number.
QB Trey Lance – $9,281,559
RB Trey Sermon – $1,328,982
RB Elijah Mitchell – $985,893
FB Kyle Juszcyzk – $6,588,750
WR Brandon Aiyuk – $3,987,248
WR Austin Watkins Jr. – $948,334
TE George Kittle – $16,300,000
TE Charlie Woerner – $1,055,258
TE Josh Pederson – $942,668
C Alex Mack – $5,075,000
LG Colton McKivitz – $1,092,445
LG Jaylon Moore – $1,020,759
RG Aaron Banks – $1,911,166
LT Trent Williams – $26,270,000
LT Alfredo Gutierrez – $940,000
DE Arik Armstead – $21,740,000
DT Javon Kinlaw – $4,928,223
MLB Elijah Sullivan – $950,000
SLB Justin Hilliard – $950,000
CB Ambry Thomas – $1,305,232
CB Deommodore Lenoir – $1,011,217
SS Talanoa Hufanga – $1,000,038
Now, obviously this doesn’t include DE Nick Bosa, who will definitely have his 5th-year option exercised, and MLB Fred Warner, who should be extended before training camp begins.
Also, as of now, Bosa’s 5th-year number, based on a $208.2 million cap, would be the transition tag number, which would be $16.788 million, and if he is able to make the Pro Bowl this year, he would get the franchise tag number, which would be $20.274 million, so that’s a $3.486 million difference.
I’m pretty confident that Bosa will make the pro bowl this season, but for the sake of this article, I’m going to just list him with the transition tag, so $16.788 million.
As for Fred Warner, if we go back to my 2021 offseason plan, which can be found here, I had Warner signing a 5-year extension through the 2026 season, worth $18 million a year, of course I think he’ll get between $18 million to $20 million a year, but this was my contract breakdown of what I’d do.
He would get $29.684 million fully guaranteed, and another $11.5 million in injury guarantees. His total guarantees would consist of a $15 million signing bonus as mentioned before, a $5 million option bonus due in 2022, his 2021, 2022, $5.15 million of his 2023 base salary is fully guaranteed, while the remainder of his 2023 base salary becomes guaranteed on April 1, 2023, and $10.5 million of his 2024 base salary guaranteed for injury, and vests to fully guaranteed on April 1, 2024, for a total of $41.184 million guaranteed.
2021- $6,636,547 ($3.384 million base salary, $3,252,547 prorated)
2022- $5.5 million ($1.15 million base salary, $4 million prorated, $250,000 per game roster bonus, $100,000 workout bonus)
2023- $10.5 million ($6.15 million base salary, $4 million prorated, $250,000 per game roster bonus, $100,000 workout bonus)
2024- $19 million ($14.65 million base salary, $4 million prorated, $250,000 per game roster bonus, $100,000 workout bonus)
2025- $27 million ($22.65 million base salary, $4 million prorated, $250,000 per game roster bonus, $100,000 workout bonus)
2026- $25 million ($23.65 million base salary, $1 million prorated, $250,000 per game roster bonus, $100,000 workout bonus)
So I would have a 2023 cap number of $10.5 million.
So, with both Bosa & my projected Warner numbers included, the 49ers would have 24 players signed, accounting for $136,905,772, plus the $6,909,999 dead money, that would be $143,815,771 in committed salaries, leaving the team with $60,684,229 in cap room, when factoring in the top 51 rule.
Now the 49ers have a good amount of players that will be free agents either after 2021 or 2022 that they’d likely or maybe want to keep, with those below.
After 2021:
RB Raheem Mostert
RB Jeff Wilson Jr.
TE Ross Dwelley
C Daniel Brunskill
LG Laken Tomlinson
DE Arden Key
DT Maurice Hurst Jr.
DT Kevin Givens
NT D.J. Jones
NT Zach Kerr
SLB Azeez Al-Shaair
CB Jason Verrett
CB K’Waun Williams
FS Tarvarius Moore
SS Jaquiski Tartt
SS Marcell Harris
After 2022:
WR Deebo Samuel
WR Jalen Hurd
RT Mike McGlinchey
DE Samson Ebukam
WLB Dre Greenlaw
CB Emmanuel Moseley
P Mitch Wishnowsky
LS Taybor Pepper
Now of course they won’t re-sign all of these players, and some may seem like fringe players, but they are guys the 49ers are probably high on, and think the young ones can develop.
Depending on how well some of these players play in 2021 & 2022, I’d expect the following brought back.
After 2021:
TE Ross Dwelley
C Daniel Brunskill
DE Arden Key
DT Maurice Hurst Jr.
DT Kevin Givens
NT D.J. Jones
NT Zach Kerr
SLB Azeez Al-Shaair
CB Jason Verrett
CB K’Waun Williams
FS Tarvarius Moore
As for what these guys could, on multi year deals that would have them signed for 2023.
The one player I pointed out in my offseason plan was Jason Verrett, I had him signing a 5-year deal, worth $6 million a year, while he is making $5.5 million this season, up to $6.5 million,
I believe $8 million a year is a fair value on a long term commitment, and I had Verrett’s 2023 cap number at just $5 million, which I believe is too low, if he signs a deal after 2021.
The first 2 seasons would be relatively low in cap number wise, probably in the $3.5 million in 2022 & $6.5 million in 2023.
I also had the 49ers extending Tarvarius Moore, as I think he’ll take over in 2022 as the teams free safety, with Talanoa Hufanga as the teams new strong safety, which means Jimmie Ward & Jaquiski Tartt are expendable, if the 49ers cut Ward next offseason, they would save $6.795 million in 2022, and also eliminate that $2 million in dead money.
As for a contract for Moore, if he shows he’s developed into the teams new free safety, a 4-year deal, worth between $3.5 million to $4.5 million a year.
Obviously he’d have a low 2021 & 2022 cap number, I had him with around $2.7 million in 2022, & $3.7 million in 2023.
Another player I would re-sign is nose tackle D.J. Jones to a 5-year deal, worth $5 million a year, with cap numbers of $3.5 million in 2022, & $6.5 million in 2023.
As for the teams RFAs and ERFAs, Daniel Brunskill would likely sign a 1 or 2 year deal, less than the projected $2.396 million original round tender for 2022, kind of like how the 49ers re-signed then pending RFAs Jeff Wilson Jr., Ross Dwelley, & Marcell Harris, and they did sign Emmanuel Moseley to a 2-year deal, but the average is $4.692 million, but he’s expected to be a starter, where Brunskill is more of a utility guy, who can play multiple positions on the offensive line.
So, I’d re-sign Brunskill to a 2-year deal, worth $2 million a year, with each years cap number being $2 million.
Also Kevin Givens is a ERFA in 2022, so he’ll only count $895,000, but he’s a RFA in 2023, it’s impossible to guess the RFA number for 2023, but I’d bet that they’d also sign him before he can be tendered, so maybe a 3-year deal, worth $2.5 million a year, this depends on him developing like the 49ers hope he does.
With this, I’d have his 2023 cap number of $2 million.
So, if we take into account the cap numbers for Verrett, Moore, Jones, Brunskill, & Givens for 2023, that would total $20.7 million in 2023 cap space, which would give them 29 players, accounting for $164,515,771, with the $6,909,999 in dead money, but the 49ers would gain the $2 million from Ward if cut in 2022, so it would be just $4,909,999 in dead money.
With that taken into account, the 49ers would have $60,574,230, but to factor in the top 51 rule, they’d have $44,074,230 in cap room.
Any of the other free agents I think the 49ers would like back, would likely be on 1-year deals, the only exceptions could be Arden Key, & Maurice Hurst Jr., depending on how they played.
After 2022:
WR Deebo Samuel
RT Mike McGlinchey
DE Samson Ebukam
WLB Dre Greenlaw
CB Emmanuel Moseley
P Mitch Wishnowsky
LS Taybor Pepper
Ok, now the 49ers, in my opinion, would likely want to keep all of these players, depending on how they play, if they stay healthy, etc…
Starting with Deebo Samuel, this is a tough one, he’s kind of like Curtis Samuel, who signed with the Washington Football Team for $11.5 million a year, which seems like an overpay to me, so I’d be more comfortable paying Deebo around $8.5 million a year, since I believe Brandon Aiyuk will become the teams #1 wide receiver.
So, with that said, his 2023 cap number would be around $5 million.
Next up is Mike McGlinchey, if he can really improve his pass blocking and protection, he could be looking at a nice sized deal, with the right tackle market being kind of wacky, Jack Conklin got $14 million a year, while Lane Johnson got $18 million a year, and Johnson is only 4-years older than Conklin.
Also both of those players are better than McGlinchey, so I’d say a deal averaging $12 million a year would be fair, with a $8.5 million cap number for 2023, because I think the 49ers will try to extend McGlinchey in 2022 when he’s set to earn $10.808 million on his 5th-year option, which could free up cap room in 2022.
Next is Samson Ebukam, if he shows he’s a better player in the 49ers scheme than he was in the Rams scheme, than I think a new 3-year deal, worth $6.5 million is fair, with a $3.5 million cap number in 2023.
Now we have Dre Greenlaw, an off the ball linebacker, who along with Fred Warner make a nice pair, but Greenlaw won’t get anywhere near what Warner will get.
I think a 4-5 year deal, worth $8 million a year is a fair deal, with a $4.5 million cap number for 2023.
Next is Emmanuel Moseley, if he steps up, proves he’s a solid #2 CB, then I can see the 49ers giving him another multi year deal, maybe 4-5 years, averaging around $5.5 million a year, which would be a slight bump from the $4.692 million, but if he plays well, he’s worth it, plus the 49ers gave him this new 2-year deal, when Moseley hasn’t played a lot of NFL snaps, so he, to me, would be grateful and happy to remain a 49er.
As for 2023 cap number, I’d say around $3.5 million, which is a little less than $1 million less than his cap number for 2021.
If the 49ers like both Mitch Wishnowsky, & Taybor Pepper, I can see them giving them 4-year deals, where Wishnowsky averages $2.5 million a year, and Pepper averaging $1.25 million a year, basically he’d get the minimum base salaries, while getting a small $400,000 signing bonus.
So Wishnowsky would count $1.205 million, as he’d get mostly minimum base salaries, and a modest $500,000 signing bonus.
And Pepper would count only $1.18 million.
So if we add up the numbers for Deebo, McGlinchey, Greenlaw, Ebukam, Moseley, Wishnowsky, & Pepper, that’s a total of $27.385 million, which would give the team 36 players signed for 2023, accounting for $191,900,771, plus the $4,909,999 dead money, would be $196,810,770, leaving the team, after factoring in the top 51 rule, $22,614,230 in cap room.
The 49ers could extend Bosa either in 2022 or before the 2023 season begins, lowering his $16.788 million, and saving some cap room, probably not much.
Also, by the time 2023 comes around, both Brandon Aiyuk & Javon Kinlaw will be eligible for new deals, along with their 5th-year options needing to picked up or declined, I’m assuming they are both picked up, but it’s impossible to know what those numbers would be.
So, the 49ers would have the following 36 players under contract by the time 2023 comes around.
QB Trey Lance – $9,281,559
RB Trey Sermon – $1,328,982
RB Elijah Mitchell – $985,893
FB Kyle Juszcyzk – $6,588,750
WR Brandon Aiyuk – $3,987,248
WR Deebo Samuel – $5,000,000
WR Austin Watkins Jr. – $948,334
TE George Kittle – $16,300,000
TE Charlie Woerner – $1,055,258
TE Josh Pederson – $942,668
C Alex Mack – $5,075,000
C Daniel Brunskill – $2,000,000
LG Colton McKivitz – $1,092,445
LG Jaylon Moore – $1,020,759
RG Aaron Banks – $1,911,166
LT Trent Williams – $26,270,000
LT Alfredo Gutierrez – $940,000
RT Mike McGlinchey – $8,500,000
DE Arik Armstead – $21,740,000
DE Nick Bosa – $16,788,000
DE Samson Ebukam – $3,500,000
DT Javon Kinlaw – $4,928,223
DT Kevin Givens – $2,000,000
NT D.J. Jones – $6,500,000
WLB Dre Greenlaw – $4,500,000
MLB Fred Warner – $10,500,000
MLB Elijah Sullivan – $950,000
SLB Justin Hilliard – $950,000
CB Jason Verrett – $5,000,000
CB Emmanuel Moseley – $3,500,000
CB Ambry Thomas – $1,305,232
CB Deommodore Lenoir – $1,011,217
FS Tarvarius Moore – $3,700,000
SS Talanoa Hufanga – $1,000,038
P Mitch Wishnowsky – $1,205,000
LS Taybor Pepper – $1,180,000
Again, the 49ers would have $22,614,230 in cap room, if the cap is $230 million for 2023.
Of course, the 5 UDFAs may not be around, so that would be $981,002 extra cap room, putting them up to $23,595,232 in cap room.
Of course this doesn’t factor in the teams 2022 & 2023 draft class, or potential deals for guys who may impress, like Jalen Hurd, Ross Dwelley, Arden Key, Maurice Hurst Jr., and Marcell Harris, but those wouldn’t be crazy numbers, so let’s say these 5 would count in the $2.5 million range in 2023, that’d give the team 41 players signed, leaving them $14,845,232 under the 2023 salary cap.
As for other players, they’d pretty much would have a good core of players signed with the 41 players, they would need a place kicker, and depth everywhere.
Of course, these numbers are just estimates, or what I would do.
As for some free agents not brought back like Laken Tomlinson, & Jaquiski Tartt, it’s because I envision either Jaylon Moore or Colton McKivitz as the teams new left guard, and Talanoa Hufanga as the teams new strong safety.
So with all of this said, I thank everyone for reading this long, and exhausting article, as always you can follow me on Twitter @49erscap, or leave a comment below, and I’ll get back to you.
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