Ok, with June 1st right around the corner, I thought it would be a good time to take a look at where the 49ers stand cap wise for the 2021 season.
Right now, the team has 88 players signed, counting for $192,247,073, with an additional $14,107,862 in dead money when factoring in Weston Richburg’s dead money when he retires in June, and the 49ers are $17,641,087 under their adjusted cap, which is $196,146,022, which consists of the $182.5 million salary cap, $3,172,299 carryover from 2020, and $10,473,723 in adjustments.
But don’t let that $17,641,087 number fool you, because this number doesn’t taken into account their remaining unsigned draft picks, 3rd-overall pick North Dakota State quarterback Trey Lance, 88th-overall pick Ohio State running back Trey Sermon, and 102nd-overall pick Michigan cornerback Ambry Thomas, who will likely take up $7,957,115 in cap room, well, $2.55 million less, due to the top 51 rule.
But in all actuality the 49ers will only have around $6 million to $7 million in cap room to begin the 2021 season, this factors in the teams practice squad, but does not factor in an extension for All-Pro MLB Fred Warner, which should take up at least $3 million in cap room, so the 49ers may end up having to restructure a player or two.
Now, the only players that the 49ers could restructure to save cap room are Jimmy Garoppolo, Laken Tomlinson, Arik Armstead, & Jimmie Ward.
The 49ers would save a whopping $18.42 million in salary cap room if they chose to redo Jimmy Garoppolo’s deal, but the fallback on this is the fact that the savings from releasing or trading Garoppolo goes from $25.6 million, down to just $7.18 million.
The 49ers could restructure Laken Tomlinson’s deal, which would save the team $2.808 million in salary cap room, but it would also increase his dead money for 2022, which is currently $1,005,530, by $2.808 million, the reason for the dead money is when the 49ers were forced to redo his deal last season, adding in 4 voidable years, allowing for the maximum savings, thus his contract will void sometime after the 2021 season is over.
As for Arik Armstead, it the 49ers chose to restructure his deal, they’d save $4.528 million in cap room, but it would also add $1.132 million to his 2022-2024 cap numbers, while adding $1.132 million to his 2025 dead money, which stands at $1.5 million, the reason for this is due to 2025 being a voidable year, similar to Tomlinson’s, which also voids sometime after the 2024 season.
Finally we have Jimmie Ward, who has $7 million of his $8.4 million base salary already fully guaranteed for 2021, so if they redid Ward, they’d save $5.86 million in cap room, but the savings from moving on from Ward after the 2021 season goes from $7.5 million to just $1.64 million.
The most logical candidate(s) are Arik Armstead, & Laken Tomlinson, in that order, which would save the team a combined $7.336 million in cap room, which would give the team in the neighborhood of $13.336 million to $14.336 million to begin the 2021 season, but this doesn’t factor in an extension for Warner, which as I stated should take up at least $3 million, which would lower the 49ers cap room down to $10.336 million to $11.336 million.
Now let’s address the elephant in the room so to speak, this being the 49ers fans clamoring for the team to trade for Atlanta Falcons All-Pro wide receiver Julio Jones, who would cost any team who trades for him $15.3 million in 2021, $11.513 million in 2022, and $11.513 million in 2023.
The issue is, the 49ers don’t have the needed cap room to make a trade work, even if they restructured Armstead, & Tomlinson, they wouldn’t be able to fit Jones’ 2021 cap number, especially when the 49ers extend Fred Warner, who should be priority #1 for the 49ers.
Now, they could restructure Ward’s deal, which saves the team $5.86 million, which would give the 49ers in the neighborhood of $19.196 million to $20.196 million in cap room for 2021.
But, take away, again at least $3 million for Warner’s extension, plus Jones’ $15.3 million salary, and that leaves the 49ers with just around $896,000 in salary cap room, which is clearly not enough for the 49ers to operate during the 2021 season, and redoing Garoppolo’s deal makes absolutely no sense, when he won’t be here in 2022.
Also on Garoppolo, they won’t be trading him, or releasing him this year, unless Trey Lance shows he’s ready, and understands Kyle Shanahan’s playbook, but by that time, Julio Jones will have already been traded by the Falcons.
Another thing that some have said, is well why not trade Arik Armstead, along with a couple draft picks for Jones, well the issue is, even though the 49ers would save over $7.455 million by trading Armstead in a Jones deal, it would have a ripple effect for 2022, as the team would only save $3.5 million in cap room, as they’d carry a whopping $16.5 million dead money hit in 2022.
Some people look at this kind of trade as if it’s the NBA, where you just have to match salaries up within a certain percentage, so when fans see that Armstead has a $20 million cap number in 2022, while Jones has a $11.513 million cap number in 2022, they may assume, well that’s a $8.487 million savings, when in reality, as stated, they only save $3.5 million.
Also on the Falcons side of things, they’re around $6.77 million over the cap if they were to sign their draft picks, as they’ve yet to sign any of their 2021 picks, so while they gain $15.3 million in cap room, they also have to take on $7,445,882, which is what Armstead would be owed, so the real net savings would be $7,854,118, which would leave them with just $1,154,118 in cap room after signing their picks, which isn’t enough to sign their practice squad, or in season roster moves.
Also the only other player the Falcons could gain cap room from is nose tackle Grady Jarrett, but it doesn’t look like the Falcons will or want to go that way, it only leads to more cap problems down the road, which is why any Jones trade will not involve a high priced player.
And for the sake of the hypotheticals, just say the 49ers did deal Armstead in a trade for Jones, let’s look at the 2022 cap situation.
As it stands, the 49ers have just 36 players signed for 2022, this include the three unsigned draft picks, who will account for $189,890,307, while the team will have $4,459,181 in dead money from Weston Richburg & Laken Tomlinson, which leaves the team, if the cap does hit the ceiling of $208.2 million, with $13,850,512 in cap room.
But wait, again that number is deceiving, because it doesn’t take into account the top 51 rule, so in reality the 49ers would be just $3,275,512 under the 2022 cap, if it does climb to $208.2 million.
When the 49ers release or trade Jimmy Garoppolo in 2022, they’ll save $24.895 million in cap room, when factoring in the top 51 rule where a player making the minimum, $705,000 in 2022, replaces the player being let go, which would give the 49ers $28,467,512 in cap room for 2022.
But that doesn’t take into account the fact that punter Mitch Wishnowsky will have his current $895,000 base salary escalate to $2.396 million, if the cap is indeed $208.2 million, while weakside linebacker Dre Greenlaw will have his base salary escalate to $2.646 million, which is a loss of $3.252 million in cap room, leaving the team with $25,215,512 in cap room, but this doesn’t factor in an extension for Warner, which I will conservatively estimate to be around $5.5 million, the same as what tight end George Kittle will count in 2021.
The reason for the escalations for Greenlaw, & Wishnowsky is due to the Proven Performance Escalator, which if the player plays at least 35% of their teams snaps in either two of their first three seasons, or a total of 35% over the course of their first three seasons.
There are also two other levels for the PPE, for level two the player will see his base salary escalate to the original round tender, plus $250,000, if the player plays at least 55% of their teams snaps in all of his first three seasons, so as of now, Greenlaw would earn that, as long as he plays at least 55% of the 49ers defensive snaps.
Then there is the third level, which, if a player is selected to a Pro Bowl on the original ballot, not as an alternate, that player will receive the base salary to the amount of what the 2nd-round tender would be, which would be $3.927 million if the cap is $208.2 million.
Now it’s highly doubtful that either Greenlaw or Wishnowsky will make the Pro Bowl, I just wanted to throw that in there.
Also there is the possibility that Deebo Samuel’s base salary also escalates, the difference for Samuel is, he has to average at least 60% of the teams snaps in his first three seasons, or a total of 60% over the course of the players first three seasons.
And as of now, Deebo has played 67% in 2019, but just 27.9% in 2020, so if he can stay healthy, he has a really good chance of hitting the PPE, which would see his base salary escalate up to at least $2.396 million, which would take away $401,460 in cap room, since Deebo’s base salary for 2022 is set to be $1,994,640.
Along with Greenlaw, and Wishnowsky, it’s unlikely Samuel will make the Pro Bowl due to the wide receivers in the NFC being loaded.
With that taken into account, along with the fact Warner would replace someone making $705,000, the 49ers would have $20,019,152 in cap room.
So if the 49ers were to deal for Jones, they would lose $10.808 million in cap room, after factoring the top 51 rule, which leaves the team with just $9,211,152 in cap room for 2022.
Now, I’m confident that the 49ers can retain their highest priority free agents in 2022 with that $20,019,152 in cap room, the likes of running backs Raheem Mostert & Jeff Wilson Jr., left guard Laken Tomlinson, nose tackle D.J. Jones, cornerbacks Jason Verrett, & K’Waun Williams, and safeties Tarvarius Moore, & Jaquiski Tartt.
The team could also bring back the likes of running back Wayne Gallman Jr., wide receiver Trent Sherfield, tight end Ross Dwelley, defensive ends Arden Key & Jordan Willis, defensive tackle Maurice Hurst Jr., nose tackle Zach Kerr, and safety Marcell Harris.
The team will also have their usual amount of restricted free agents, and exclusive rights free agents, namely center Daniel Brunskill & strongside linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair as RFAs, and defensive tackle Kevin Givens as an ERFA.
Now obviously the team won’t bring back every free agent, but 2022 is nowhere near as bad as 2021 looked to be, and I went out on a limb to say that the 49ers would be able to retain their key free agents, the likes of Kyle Juszyzck, Trent Williams, D.J. Jones, Jason Verrett, K’Waun Williams, & Jaquiski Tartt, and well, they did, so I won’t be surprised if they keep their key free agents in 2022.
But if the 49ers only have around $9.211 million in cap room, due to a Julio Jones trade, well that won’t be enough to retain many, if any, of their key free agents, nor would it be enough for them to go into free agency to sign replacements, or even sign their draft picks.
Also if the 49ers decide to restructure some contracts, like Armstead & Tomlinson, that will be a loss of $3.94 million in 2022 salary cap room, it could be lower if the team were to extend Tomlinson, but I get the feeling with them drafting the likes of Aaron Banks, Colton McKivitz, & Jaylon Moore in the past two drafts, the 49ers feel like one of these players will take over for Tomlinson in 2022, most likely either McKivitz or Moore, with Banks on the right side along side right tackle Mike McGlinchey.
Now the only way for the 49ers to feasibly make a trade for Julio Jones work is for either the Falcons to eat some of Jones’ salary, or for Julio to take less in both 2021 & 2022, possibly in exchange for a new deal, somewhere in the range of a 3-4 year deal, with an upfront signing bonus.
The most likely outcome of those two scenarios is Jones takes less in exchange for a new deal, with more upfront guaranteed money, as the Falcons will want more picks if they are to eat any of Jones’ salary.
So with all of this said, I thank everyone for reading this long, and exhausting article, as always you can follow me on Twitter @49erscap, or leave a comment below, and I’ll get back to you.
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