With yesterday’s news that 49ers EDGE rusher Jordan Willis will be suspended for the first 6 games of the 2021 season, now is a great time to look at a 53-man roster projection, along with the injured lists, & practice squad, along with analysis.
OFFENSE:
QB(3): 10 Jimmy Garoppolo(2022)/ 5 Trey Lance(2024)/ 7 Nate Sudfeld(2021)
RB(4): 31 Raheem Mostert(2021)/ 28 Trey Sermon(2024)/ 22 Wayne Gallman Jr.(2021)/ 49 Elijah Mitchell(2024)
FB(1): 44 Kyle Juszyzck(2025)
WR(6): 11 Brandon Aiyuk(2023)/ 19 Deebo Samuel(2022)/ 81 Trent Sherfield(2021)/ 14 Jalen Hurd(2022)/ 18 Mohamed Sanu Sr.(2021)/ 15 Jauan Jennings(2021)
TE(4): 85 George Kittle(2025)/ 82 Ross Dwelley(2021)/ 89 Charlie Woerner(2023)/ 88 MyCole Pruitt(2021)
C(2): 50 Alex Mack(2023)/ 60 Daniel Brunskill(2021)
OG(3): 75 Laken Tomlinson(2021)/ 65 Aaron Banks(2024)/ 68 Colton McKivitz(2023)
OT(3): 71 Trent Williams(2026)/ 69 Mike McGlinchey(2022)/ 76 Jaylon Moore(2024)
DEFENSE:
DE(5): 97 Nick Bosa(2022)/ 91 Arik Armstead(2024)/ 56 Samson Ebukam(2022)/ 98 Arden Key(2021)/ 64 Alex Barrett(2021)
DT(3): 99 Javon Kinlaw(2023)/ 90 Kevin Givens(2021)/ 96 Maurice Hurst Jr.(2021)
NT(2): 93 D.J. Jones(2021)/ 92 Zach Kerr(2021)
LB(4): 54 Fred Warner(2021)/ 57 Dre Greenlaw(2022)/ 51 Azeez Al-Shaair(2021)/ 48 James Burgess Jr.(2021)
CB(5): 2 Jason Verrett(2021)/ 4 Emmanuel Moseley(2022)/ 24 K’Waun Williams(2021)/ 20 Ambry Thomas(2024)/ 38 Deommodore Lenoir(2024)
FS(2): 1 Jimmie Ward(2022)/ 23 Tony Jefferson(2021)
SS(3): 26 Jaquiski Tartt(2021)/ 36 Marcell Harris(2021)/ 29 Talanoa Hufanga(2024)
SPECIAL TEAMS:
PK(1): 9 Robbie Gould(2022)
P(1): 6 Mitch Wishnowsky(2022)
LS(1): 46 Taybor Pepper(2022)
INJURED LISTS:
PUP: RB 30 Jeff Wilson Jr.(2021)
IR: RT 67 Justin Skule(2022)
Short Term IR: DE 55 Dee Ford(2022)
PUP/IR: FS 33 Tarvarius Moore(2021)
SUSPENDED:
DE 94 Jordan Willis(2021)
PRACTICE SQUAD:
QB 3 Josh Rosen*
RB 23 JaMycal Hasty
FB 40 Josh Hokit
WR 7 Austin Watkins Jr.
TE 83 Josh Pederson
C 64 Jake Brendel*
RG 61 Dakoda Shepley
LT 78 Shon Coleman*
LT 77 Alfredo Gutierrez**
NT 65 Darrion Daniels
WLB 47 Nathan Gerry*
MLB 59 Elijah Sullivan
SLB 58 Justin Hilliard
CB 27 Dontae Johnson*
FS 7 Jared Mayden
FS 32 Tavon Wilson*
*Denotes player with 3 or more accrued seasons
**Denotes player who is exempt from the practice squad limit, & doesn’t count against the cap
So, I decided to go with the maximum of 6 players with 3 or more accrued years on the practice squad.
With this roster, the 49ers would begin the season with $4,576,806 in salary cap room for 2021, but this is before the team extends Fred Warner, which should take up at least $3 million in cap room.
Now if the 49ers decided to cut Jordan Willis, they’d begin the 2021 season with $5,143,473 in salary cap room.
The 49ers will have to create cap room, not just to extend Warner, but to also have cap space for in-season roster moves, so the 2 obvious candidates are Arik Armstead, which would save the team $4.528 million, and Laken Tomlinson, which would save the team $2.808 million.
If the 49ers decided to restructure both of these guys, the 49ers would have, before a Warner extension, $11,912,806, but with a Warner extension, $8,912,806, but if they decided to release Willis, those numbers would go up to $12,479,473 before a Warner extension, and $9,479,473 after a Warner extension.
Now, let’s take a look at why I decided to go with who I went with.
Of the 53 players, I already had the following 46 players as locks to make the team.
QBs Garoppolo, & Lance, RBs Mostert, Sermon, & Mitchell, FB Juszyzck, WRs Aiyuk, Samuel, Sherfield, & Hurd, TEs Kittle, Dwelley, Woerner, & Pruitt, Cs Mack, & Brunskill, OGs Tomlinson, Banks, & McKkvitz, OTs Williams, McGlinchey, & Moore, DEs Armstead, Bosa, Ebukam, & Key, DTs Kinlaw, Givens, & Hurst, NTs Jones, & Kerr, LBs Warner, Greenlaw, & Al-Shaair, CBs Verrett, Moseley, Williams, Thomas, & Lenoir, FS Ward, SSs Tartt, Harris, & Hufanga, PK Gould, P Wishnowsky, & LS Pepper.
So, I had 7 open roster spots.
For the 3rd QB, I went with Sudfeld, as I still believe he’s better than Rosen, plus if the team decides to keep Rosen over Sudfeld, they’d have a $252,000 dead money charge for Sudfeld if the team kept Sudfeld on the practice squad, which would leave the team with $11,660,806 before a Warner extension, $8,660,806 with a Warner extension, also if they released Willis, their cap room would go up to $12,227,473 before a Warner extension, or $9,227,473 after a Warner extension.
Next up is the teams 4th RB, I feel that Mostert, Sermon & Mitchell are locked into roster spots, I just don’t see the 49ers waiving Mitchell, as I don’t think he’ll clear waivers, so the competition is between Wayne Gallman Jr., & JaMycal Hasty.
The team could decide to keep Hasty, who would make $780,000 if he makes the team, over Gallman, would only save $70,000 in cap room, since Gallman would make $850,000, but Gallman’s salary would become guaranteed week 1 if he’s on the 53-man roster, but Gallman’s experience gives him the edge over Hasty.
The teams 5th & 6th WRs, I decided to go with the veteran Sanu, along with the youth in Jennings, which leaves Richie James Jr. as the odd man out.
Both Sanu & Jennings had solid showings during the limited amount of practices the team had before canceling the rest of the teams offseason workout program.
I had a dilemma about whether to keep a 9th OL, or a 10th DL, I could have went with someone like Shon Coleman, Tom Compton or Senio Kelemete, but that would guarantee their salaries for the season.
While the suspension to Willis leaves a hole for the potential 5th EDGE rusher, so I debated having someone like Alex Barrett, or keeping Darrion Daniels, who is primarily a nose tackle.
So I decided to go with a 10th DL, that being Barrett, as his salary won’t be guaranteed, nor would he be likely to see the field, now if Dee Ford is ready, he makes the team.
While we’re talking about Ford, I have him actually making the initial 53, while leaving Gallman off the roster for 1 day, that way the team can place Ford on injured reserve without losing him for the season, so basically short term injured reserves, while Gallman would be re-signed the next day.
Next up is the teams 4th LB, I went with James Burgess Jr., mainly due to Nathan Gerry being hurt at this moment, but the 4th LB spot is a competition between Burgess, Gerry, Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles, Justin Hilliard, Elijah Sullivan, & Jonas Griffith.
Finally is the teams backup free safety, which is now an open competition due to Tarvarius Moore tearing his Achilles, with the main players competing being Tony Jefferson, & Tavon Wilson.
Now both can play both safety spots, but I went with Jefferson, despite his history with his torn ACL from 2019, I feel Jefferson, if healthy, would be the right choice.
As for 2022, the team, with this roster, with a Warner extension, assuming he has a small 2022 cap number, likely around $5.5 million, they’d have 31 players signed, accounting for $192,366,308 along with $7,329,182 in dead money, so if the 2022 cap does come in at $208.2 million, they’d have $2,291,150 in cap room, but that’s counting only the 32 players + dead money, so when factoring in the top 51 rule, they’d be $4,890,490 over the 2022 cap.
But we also have to factor in the 3 players that should or could see their 2022 base salaries escalate due to the proven performance escalator, which would see Deebo Samuel, Dre Greenlaw, & Mitch Wishnowsky’s base salaries go up to $2.396 million, but Greenlaw would get an extra $250,000 for playing in 55% of the teams defensive snaps over all their first 3 seasons, so that’s an additional $3,513,360 added to the teams payroll, which leaves the team $8,403,850 over the 2022 cap.
Now we all know Jimmy Garoppolo won’t be back in 2022, so when the 49ers release or trade him, they’ll save, after factoring in the top 51 rule, $24.895 million in cap room, giving them $16,491,150 in cap room to begin the 2022 offseason.
The 49ers could save $6.795 million if the team moves on from Jimmie Ward, which would give the team $23,286,150, which would be plenty of cap room to re-sign their core free agents, along with adding a free agent or 2 like they did with Alex Mack, & Samson Ebukam this offseason.
Below are the pending free agents the 49ers would have with my projected roster.
UFAs:
QB Nate Sudfeld
RB Raheem Mostert
RB Jeff Wilson Jr.
RB Wayne Gallman Jr.
WR Trent Sherfield
WR Mohamed Sanu Sr.
TE Ross Dwelley
TE MyCole Pruitt
LG Laken Tomlinson
DE Arden Key
DE Jordan Willis
DT Maurice Hurst Jr.
NT D.J. Jones
NT Zach Kerr
WLB James Burgess Jr.
CB Jason Verrett
CB K’Waun Williams
FS Tony Jefferson
FS Tarvarius Moore
SS Jaquiski Tartt
SS Marcell Harris
RFAs:
C Daniel Brunskill
SLB Azeez Al-Shaair
ERFAs:
WR Jauan Jennings
DE Alex Barrett
DT Kevin Givens
I’d imagine the 49ers would prioritize bringing back, depending on how well they play in 2021, running backs Raheem Mostert, & Jeff Wilson Jr., left guard Laken Tomlinson, nose tackle D.J. Jones, cornerbacks Jason Verrett, & K’Waun Williams, and strong safety Jaquiski Tartt.
The team could also bring back guys like running back Wayne Gallman Jr., wide receiver Trent Sherfield, tight ends Ross Dwelley, & MyCole Pruitt, defensive end Arden Key, defensive tackle Maurice Hurst Jr., nose tackle Zach Kerr, free safety’s Tony Jefferson & Tarvarius Moore, and strong safety Marcell Harris.
You’ll notice that I left over Daniel Brunskill, Azeez Al-Shaair, Jauan Jennings, & Kevin Givens, well that’s because those players are either RFAs or ERFAs, which can be retained via their tender, or they could outright sign the RFAs like they did this offseason with Jeff Wilson Jr., Ross Dwelley, Emmanuel Moseley, Marcell Harris, & Taybor Pepper to deals that, besides Moseley, paid them less than their tender would have.
As for the players I listed as other players that they’d like to keep, most could be kept for the league minimum.
So, as I’ve said in the past, I was very very worried about the 2021 offseason, but when it comes to the 2022 offseason, aside from the idea of Fred Warner not being extended this offseason, which I’d say is a 0% chance, 2022 doesn’t worry me, they don’t have a Trent Williams or Kyle Juszyzck level of player that’s a pending free agent.
I also envision the 49ers looking to extend some of their pending 2023 free agents, mainly Deebo Samuel, & Dre Greenlaw, while Nick Bosa is a high priority to extend, he’ll have his 5th-year option picked up, which as of now, would count $16.788 million, which is the transition tag amount, now if he makes the pro bowl this season, then he’ll get the franchise tag amount, which would be $20.274 million, these are all assuming the cap comes in at the ceiling of $208.2 million.
If I’d have to guess on what the 2022 cap’s floor would be, it’d be between $198 million to $200 million, which would be between a $8.2 million to $10.2 million less than the ceiling, but let’s hope the cap does come in as close to the ceiling of $208.2 million.
So with all of this said, I thank everyone for reading article, as always you can follow me on Twitter @49erscap, or leave a comment below, and I’ll get back to you.
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