So with the news that broke yesterday that the Atlanta Falcons will/have traded their star wide receiver Julio Jones to the Tennessee Titans for a 2022 2nd-rounder, and a 2023 4th-rounder, while giving back a 6th-rounder to Tennessee, I think it’s a good time to take a look at why not trading for Jones was a good thing for the 49ers.
I’ve talked about Julio Jones in two previous article, 1. Where I said it wasn’t feasible financially or long term, which can be found here, and 2. Where I looked at what the 49ers actually have or will have once the season starts, but also how a Julio Jones trade would work, which would have required a lot of maneuvering, and even in that case, the 2022 year would be worse than it will be now that Julio isn’t a 49er, for that article it can be found here.
So now that Julio Jones is a Tennessee, this will make re-signing the players that the 49ers want to keep that much easier.
First let’s talk about 2021, I project that the 49ers will have between $6 million to $7 million, after signing their practice squad, but before a Fred Warner extension, in cap room.
It was clear the 49ers couldn’t fit Julio under the cap without re-working his deal, which looks like won’t happen in Tennessee, and Atlanta didn’t take on any of his salary.
If the 49ers had dealt for Julio, the team would have needed to do a lot of cap work, first off they would have needed to restructure Arik Armstead($4.528 million saved), & Laken Tomlinson($2.808 million saved) just to have a chance, but even then that would only have given the 49ers between $14.336 million to $13.336 million, and that would have been before an extension for Warner, which would have taken up at least $3 million of that cap room.
The only thing required would be for Julio to tear up his deal, be given a new 5-year contract, where he’d make the minimum in 2021 & 2022, but get a $14.225 million signing bonus, while counting just $3.92 million in 2021, while he would receive a $10.393 million option bonus in 2022, that would be protected, meaning he would have been guaranteed it no matter what happened, which would give him a $6,563,250 cap number in 2022, I’ll get to 2022 in a bit.
The 49ers may still need to restructure someone’s contract to both extend Warner, and have money for in season roster moves, with Armstead being the most logical choice, as it would have given them $4.528 million, so, if we look at the projection of $6 million to $7 million for 2021, subtract $3 million, and then add in $4.528 million, the 49ers would have between $8.528 million to $7.528 million in cap room for 2021.
Of course the effect of redoing Armstead’s deal would mean his 2022-2024 cap numbers would increase by $1.132 million, while his 2025 option year, which is more of a voidable year, would leave the team with an extra $1.132 million in dead money on top of the current $1.5 million he’s set to count against the 2025 cap.
As I mentioned, the 49ers could restructure Laken Tomlinson, but because his deal voids after 2021, he would leave $2.808 million in dead money, on top of the $1,005,530 he is set to count, unless the team decides to extend Tomlinson, but this is if they feel that Colton McKivitz & Jaylon Moore are not ready to take over at left guard.
I should also note that $2.808 million if is they add on 1 voidable year, as he already has 3 voidable years, so his cap savings go down to $2,632,500.
Also the idea of restructuring Jimmie Ward’s deal would have been a horrendous move, while it saves the team $5.86 million, but if the 49ers choose to release Ward in 2022, his cap savings goes from $7.5 million to just $1.64 million, I should note that the $5.86 million is if they chose to add in 2 voidable years, if they decided not to, they would save $4,883,333, which would bring Ward’s savings down to just $2,616,666 for 2022.
Lastly we have Jimmy Garoppolo, where the max they can save is $18.42 million in cap room this year, but it would make his $25.6 million savings go down to just $7.18 million.
Now if they didn’t add on the extra 3 voidable years, his savings from a restructure would be $11,512,500, but in 2022, his savings goes down to just $14,087,500 for 2022.
Now onto 2022.
Right now, the 49ers have 36 players under contract, which includes the teams 5 UDFAs, which gives them $13,850,512 million on a $208.2 million cap, but that’s with just the 36 players counting, so when you factor in the top 51 rule, the 49ers cap room drops to just $3,275,512.
Now we all know that by 2022, Trey Lance should/will be ready to take over as the teams starting quarterback, which leaves current starter Jimmy Garoppolo on his way out, which saves the teams $24.85 million when factoring in the top 51 rule, which would give the team $28,125,512.
That $28,125,512 is before a Warner extension, and before factoring in the base salary escalations for Deebo Samuel, Dre Greenlaw, & Mitch Wishnowsky, which total $3,513,360, due the PPE, while Deebo & Wishnowsky’s base salaries would go up to $2.396 million, Greenlaw’s would go up to $2.646 million due to playing 55% of the team defensive snaps, which barring injury is a given.
So that would put the 49ers 2022 cap room at $24,612,152, before a Warner extension, which let’s be conservative, and say it’ll count just $5.5 million against the cap, like Kittle’s deal, which gives the team, after factoring in the top 51 rule, $19,862,152 in cap room.
Now this all depended on the cap hitting the ceiling of $208.2 million, which should be attainable if indeed all 32 teams home games are at 100% capacity.
I truly believe the $19,862,152 number is enough to keep key free agents, namely running back Jeff Wilson Jr., left guard Laken Tomlinson, nose tackle D.J. Jones, cornerbacks Jason Verrett, & K’Waun Williams, and free safety Tarvaius Moore.
You’ll notice I left off Raheem Mostert, & Jaquiski Tartt, because I believe the drafting of Trey Sermon & Elijah Mitchell makes him expendable, and for Tartt it’s because I believe 5th-rounder Talanoa Hufanga will be the teams new starting strong safety in 2022, while I could also see Tarvarius Moore as the teams new starting free safety, which means Jimmie Ward is expendable, which would save the team $6.75 million when factoring the top 51 rule, putting their cap space up to $26,612,152.
I truly believe that the 49ers can keep their core free agents, also I’d expect them to at least tender RFA center Daniel Brunskill or re-sign him like they did Ross Dwelley & Marcell Harris this offseason, as well as tendering ERFA Kevin Givens, which would be just $895,000.
I do believe the 49ers could look to bring back some other non key players, like tight end Ross Dwelley, defensive end Arden Key, defensive tackle Maurice Hurst Jr., nose tackle Zach Kerr, & strong safety Marcell Harris.
And I also believe the 49ers would have enough money to go into free agency, and pick up a veteran or two on multi-year deals, like they did with center Alex Mack, & defensive end Samson Ebukam.
On top of that, they could even extend some players, like Nick Bosa, Deebo Samuel, and Dre Greenlaw, helping to keep the young core intact.
I have to say, that I was very nervous entering the 2021 offseason, I had said all year long in 2020 that the 49ers could & would sign most of their key free agents, namely fullback Kyle Juszyzck, left tackle Trent Williams, nose tackle D.J. Jones, cornerbacks Jason Verrett & K’Waun Williams, and strong safety Jaquiski Tartt, much I have to admit, I was getting nervous during the whole Trent Williams discussions with the Kansas City Chiefs, but felt he would re-sign.
As for 2022, I don’t have any nervousness or fear of losing some of our free agents, it’s natural to have roster changes made year to year, but it would be nice to keep the young guys like Jeff Wilson Jr., Ross Dwelley, Daniel Brunskill, Kevin Givens, & Marcell Harris, as well as key free agents like Laken Tomlinson, D.J. Jones, Jason Verrett, K’Waun Williams, & Tarvarius Moore, along with keeping guys like Wayne Gallman Jr., Trent Sherfield, MyCole Pruitt, Arden Key, Maurice Hurst Jr., & Zach Kerr who I believe were all great signings by the 49ers.
So, now you have it, a look at 2022, now that Julio Jones has been traded to the Titans.
Also, for those who think that Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers will be traded to the 49ers, it’s not happening, for a few reasons, 1. Due to his high salary for the next 3 seasons, 2. The compensation that they’d have to give up, Jimmy Garoppolo would have to be included, and he has a NTC(no trade clause) for 2021, so he may not want to go to Green Bay, plus whatever picks, or for some god awful reason they trade the rights to Trey Lance, the 3rd-overall pick in the 2021 draft, and 3. If they were to trade for Rodgers, and were able to keep Lance, it puts the 49ers in the same situation as if they dealt for Julio.
But it’s only worse than trading for Julio, because Rodgers is set to make $15.55 million between his $14.7 million base salary, & a $850,000 LTBE, as well as $25.5 million in both 2022 & 2023, which negates any savings for trading Jimmy, plus how would Rodgers feel to have Trey Lance behind him, plus it makes no sense to sit Trey Lance for 3 seasons, so by the time his 4th season comes, they have to make a decision on whether to exercise or decline his 5th-year option.
You also have to factor in the fact that if they had dealt for Jones, and paying him $15.3 million this year, plus the $11.513 million in both 2022 & 2022, it would make it very tough to keep guys like Fred Warner, Nick Bosa, Deebo Samuel, Dre Greenlaw, Brandon Aiyuk, Javon Kinlaw, plus whatever 2021 draft picks that shine.
And the same goes for trading for Rodgers, not only would you need to find a new franchise quarterback, you also most likely lose some or all of your key free agents, plus it makes it difficult to extend Fred Warner, & Nick Bosa.
So, in my opinion, the 49ers one did the right thing in not dealing for Julio Jones, and two there is no way I see the 49ers trading for Rodgers.
So with all of this said, I thank everyone for reading this long, and exhausting article, as always you can follow me on Twitter @49erscap, or leave a comment below, and I’ll get back to you.
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