So recently I’ve been going over breaking down the 2022 cap, and the other day I broke down the 49ers 2021 cap situation, but today I want to show the difference between what the 49ers have according to the NFLPA report, vs what they actually have after signing their draft picks vs. what they have when the season begins.
As of writing, the NFLPA cap report has the 49ers at $17,667,984 under the cap for 2021, with 91 players, this includes all draft picks, plus the 49ers international pathway player, tackle Alfredo Gutierrez, who doesn’t count against the 90-man offseason roster.
But the fact is the 49ers really have, by my numbers, $12,233,972 in cap room, and I’ll explain why, as there has been some confusion as to how much cap room the 49ers have to spend.
The issue is that 3rd-overall pick quarterback Trey Lance, 88th-overall pick running back Trey Sermon, and 102nd-overall pick cornerback Ambry Thomas have yet to sign their rookie contracts.
Now according to OverTheCap.com, these three players will likely account for $7,957,115, but because this is the offseason, only the top 51 salaries count, so that goes down by $2.55 million, as these players will take the place of three players making $850,000 this season, that’s if they make the team.
So, that’s a $5,407,115 loss in cap room once signed, but only in the offseason due to the top 51 rule, because when the season begins, the 49ers will have to account for the entire $7,957,115, if that is the amount.
I say IF, because while draft picks are slotted, there is room for some negotiating, the signing bonuses are mostly set, they may be off my between 4-8 dollars, so not a big deal, but for 3rd-round picks, like Sermon & Thomas, they can actually negotiate for higher yearly base salaries, while also having the potential for offseason workout bonuses, like how 49ers 2nd-round pick Aaron Banks got in years 3 & 4, usually in the $50,000 to $100,000 range.
But for the most part the 2021 cap number is set, they’ll get as close to what OTC has for their signing bonus, plus the rookie minimum base salary.
Ok, so with that out of the way, you may be asking, “Well the 49ers have $12 million in salary cap room, they can add some players, right?”
Well, the answer is yes & no, yes they can sign players, but not those high priced players, they’re forced to sign players to veteran minimum salary benefit deals, where the player gets paid the league minimum for his tenure, but only counts $850,000, the third year minimum against the cap, so take for example, cornerback Dontae Johnson, who has a legit shot at making the team, would only count $850,000, but he’d actually get paid $1.075 million, so the 49ers get cap relief, so expect those kind of deals.
As for the they have $12 million, well that’s not entirely correct, while they have $12 million, once they sign their last draft picks, you’re going to have to factor in players 52, & 53, along with the teams practice squad.
So for players 52, & 53, let’s assume they’re just the rookie minimum, that’s $660,000, so that’s $1.32 million right there that is gone from that $12 million, so now they’re down to $10.68 million.
Ok, now the practice squad, this will vary, the 49ers last year kept 10 players with less than 2 accrued seasons, and the maximum of 6 players with 3 or more accrued seasons, so if this is the same for 2021, the 49ers will have to account for $3.168 million in cap room, as the 10 players would make $165,600, and the 6 would make $252,000.
So that now lowers their salary cap room down to $7.512 million.
What I’m trying to get at is all of the talk about Julio Jones being traded to the 49ers, while right now, without signing their draft picks, and accounting for the beginning of the season, yes they can trade for Jones, it would leave them with just $3.217 million in cap room, and that’s without signing the three unsigned draft picks, or extending All-Pro middle linebacker Fred Warner, that’s not enough.
So, if the 49ers decide to trade for Jones, they need to have a plan on how to make it work cap wise, because, as I stated earlier, they will only have around $7.5 million in cap room, at the most, it all depends on how the 53-man roster turns out.
The 49ers would have several options, they could go to Jones himself, and have him alter his deal, taking less in 2021, and hopefully 2022, as they can’t fit Jones in 2022, and be able to bring back any free agents, or sign replacements in free agency, or even sign their draft picks.
So what’s the likelihood of this happening, probably better than 50/50, just because Jones had over 1800 yards in the 2015 season when 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan was the Falcons offensive coordinator, so he may be willing to redo his deal to play in Kyle’s offense again.
But let’s say he says no, he’s not redoing his deal, well what are the options then?
First up is quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, who is slated to count $26,382,353 against the cap, and if they decided to restructure his deal, the maximum they could free up is $18.42 million, but the ripple effect of this is in 2022, when they could free up $25.6 million, but that would go down by $18.42 million to just $7.18 million.
Then you could ask, why not just trade or release Garoppolo? Well just like with Julio Jones, any team wanting to trade for Jimmy would need to clear the needed cap space, plus not many teams, if any, are in a situation where they need a quarterback, plus is Trey Lance ready?
I’d say no, he needs to learn the system, play real football, even if it’s just in the preseason, he shouldn’t be given the reigns just because the 49ers traded 2 future 1st-rounders, and a 3rd-rounder to get up to 3rd-overall to select him, not when you have Garoppolo, who not that long ago helped lead the 49ers to the super bowl, heck, had they won it, we may not even be having this conversation about unloading Jimmy.
As for releasing him, again, Lance isn’t ready, and it makes no sense to just cut him, when he can potentially repair his value, and the 49ers can gain back some draft picks.
Now some may ask if he’d take a pay cut, well, I doubt that, it’s unlikely he’ll willingly give up money that he can’t earn back, and say he does, and he earns that, well that money comes out of the teams 2022 cap space as part of the teams adjustments.
Ok, so now that we talked about Garoppolo, let’s look at the other 3 options.
Laken Tomlinson, who isn’t signed past 2021, and already counts $1,005,530 against the 2022 cap in dead money due to the 2020 restructure they did.
If they redid Tomlinson, they’d save a maximum of $2.808 million, but another ripple effect is that his dead money would go up by $2.808 million in 2022.
Next up is Arik Armstead, who has a $6.65 million base salary, and is signed through 2024, as the 2025 season voids 5 days after the 2024-2025 Super Bowl.
If the 49ers redid Armstead, they’d save $4.528 million, while it would add $1.132 million to his 2022-2024 cap numbers, along with adding $1.132 million to his pending 2025 dead money hit of $1.5 million.
Lastly we have Jimmie Ward, who has a $8.4 million base salary, $7 million of which is fully guaranteed, so if they redid Ward, they’d save $5.86 million, but there is also a ripple effect, because if the 49ers decided they wanted to move on from Ward in 2022, the cap savings goes from $7.5 million to just $1.64 million.
So, what’s the most likely outcome the 49ers would do, since they can restructure these players contracts if they want to, since it was agreed upon a while back that teams have the ability to restructure a players contract.
Well, I’d say they’d probably redo Armstead, & Tomlinson, which saves a total of $7.336 million, so where would that leave the 49ers at the beginning of the 2021 season?
They would have $14.836 million, still not enough to fit Julio Jones’ 2021 cap number of $15.3 million, unless, again, he redoes his deal, which I’d be fine with, I would love to have Jones on this team, as long as it doesn’t cost too much as far as draft picks, and it doesn’t hurt the teams cap health long term, basically having the team end up in salary cap hell.
The other thing not factored into any of this is the extension that should be given to Warner, which should take away at least $3 million in cap room, which would leave the team with $11.836 million, so Jones would need to reduce his $15.3 million base salary down well below that number.
The reason is, teams like to have $5 million for in season roster moves, so if Jones is willing to take his $15.3 million base salary, go down to the league minimum of $1.075 million, it would create a $14.225 million signing bonus, prorated at $2.845 million if they did a 5-year deal.
Also, again, he’d need to reduce his 2022 base salary, which is $11.513 million, he could again go down to the minimum, which will be $1.12 million, which would give him a $10.393 million option bonus, which would prorate at $2,598,250 over 4 years. So his 2022 cap number would go from $11.513 million, down to $6,563,250, saving the 49ers $4,949,750 in cap room.
If this happened, the 49ers would have around $8.9 million in cap room once they unload Jimmy Garoppolo, and also if they give Warner an extension with a small $5.5 million cap number, along with the contracts of Deebo Samuel, Dre Greenlaw, & Mitch Wishnowsky escalating due to the Proven Performance Escalator.
Now that $8.9 million assumes the 49ers redo Armstead & Tomlinson, if they end up not having to, the $8.9 million then goes up to $12.843 million, which would help to bring back some key free agents, we all saw what they did with limited cap room this offseason.
What the 49ers could then do in 2022 is restructure George Kittle, which saves $8.332 million if they add on 1 voidable year, or they could restructure Arik Armstead in 2022, they’d gain $10.424 million, or they just move on from Jimmie Ward, which saves $7.5 million, but take away $705,000 for the top 51 rule, so it’s $6.795 million saved.
If they just decided to release Ward, they’d have $15.695 million if they redid Armstead & Tomlinson this year, or $19.635 million, which I’m confident enough the 49ers could bring back most, if not all, of their priority free agents.
So again, I’m all for a Julio Jones to the 49ers trade, but something like this would have to happen, it would really help the salary cap, keep it healthy, plus hopefully they only lose 1 day 2 pick and 1 day 3 pick, at worst they lose a 2nd & 3rd in different years.
So with all of this said, I thank everyone for reading this long, and exhausting article, as always you can follow me on Twitter @49erscap, or leave a comment below, and I’ll get back to you.
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