With the 49ers expecting 2019 Defensive Rookie of the Year, and All-Pro EDGE rusher Nick Bosa back for the 2021 season, I think it might be a good time to look ahead to after 2022, when Bosa becomes eligible for a contract extension, along with the rest of the 2019 draft class.
So, according to the new CBA agreed upon before the 2020 season, there are 4 categories now for players 5th-year options, which the 49ers will have until May 3rd, 2022 to pickup Bosa’s option, which is obviously a no-brainer, but let’s take a look at those 4 categories, courtesy of OverTheCap.com.
We have the basic, which is for players who do not meet any requirements of the other 3 categories, that I will outline, the option number is calculated from the average of the 3rd to 25th highest salaries over the previous five seasons.
Next up is the playtime category, which gives the player the average of the 3rd to 20th highest salaries for their position over the previous five seasons, with the criteria below.
75% of greater in two of their first three seasons
An average of 75% of greater over all of their first three seasons
50% of greater over all of their first three seasons
The third category is for making one pro bowl, so if a player, like Nick Bosa, makes one pro bowl in their first three seasons, but it has to be on the original ballot, not as an alternate, will get the salary equal to what the transition tag, which if the 2022 salary cap is indeed set at $208.2 million, would be $16.788 million.
The fourth and final category is for players who make multiple pro bowls in their first three seasons, then the player will get the salary equal to the franchise tag, which is the 2022 salary cap is indeed $208.2 million, would be $20.274 million.
These number come courtesy of OverTheCap.com, also note that unlike under the 2011 CBA, the players 5th-year option becomes fully guaranteed the moment the team exercises it, unlike under the previous CBA, the option would be guaranteed for injury at the time it’s exercised, and fully guaranteed on the first day of the new league year.
So, now that we know the projected numbers, right now Nick Bosa would get the transition tag, which as I stated earlier would be $16.788 million.
So, now let’s take a look at what it may take for the 49ers to lock up their star EDGE rusher, either in the 2022 offseason or the 2023 offseason.
As of now, the highest paid EDGE rushers are as follows.
Los Angels Chargers’ Joey Bosa at $27 million a year, with $102 million in guaranteed money, $78 million of which is fully guaranteed.
Cleveland Browns’ Myles Garrett at $25 million a year, with $100 million in guaranteed money, $50 million of which is fully guaranteed.
Both of these deals were signed in 2020, soon after the pandemic hit, Garrett signed his deal first, which at the time made him the highest paid EDGE rusher, and then Nick’s brother Joey signed his, toping Garrett’s $25 million a year not long after Garrett signed his.
Well, while the 49ers have only had one season to fully evaluate Nick Bosa, it’s a guarantee that the 49ers will make him the highest paid EDGE rusher once they’re allowed to extend him.
Now that we’ve seen the highest paid EDGE rushers, let’s look at what Nick should be able to get.
Depending on what other EDGE rushers are signed between now, and at when Nick Bosa signs his new deal, Nick can expect to top what his brother got, so somewhere in the $30 million or more a season range, with at least $100 million in guaranteed money, with $70 million in fully guaranteed money.
Structure wise, if the 49ers end up extending Bosa in 2022, I’d turn his scheduled $4,305,225 guaranteed roster bonus, which is due on the 3rd day of training camp, into part of the prorated portion of his signing bonus, which I’d expect to be in the $30 million to $35 million range, which would be between $6 million to $7 million prorated, so the team would need to use up between $1,694,775 to $2,694,775 in 2022 salary cap room.
I’d also expect the 49ers to use the same guarantee dates as they gave both All-Pro tight end George Kittle & All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams in the past two offseasons, which see’s a portion(or all of it) of their base salary become fully guaranteed the year before, so for example, Kittle had $5.083 million of 2022 base salary guaranteed on April 1, 2021, while Williams has $5.05 million of his 2023 base salary scheduled to be guaranteed on April 1, 2022.
Also, Bosa would receive at least the first two seasons base salaries guaranteed at signing, while also having a portion of his 3rd & 4th years base salary fully guaranteed at signing, something similar to what happened with Kittle’s extension.
This is also something I expect the 49ers to do with All-Pro middle linebacker Fred Warner later this offseason.
I also expect them to include yearly per game roster bonuses, likely in the $500,000 to $750,000 range, similar to what the 49ers gave their other three top EDGE rushers, Samson Ebukam($500,000), Dee Ford($750,000), & Arik Armstead($750,000), along with yearly workout bonuses, likely $100,000, which was what Ebukam, Ford, & Armstead all received in their deals, note that Ford had his workout bonuses eliminated as part of his restructured deal that saved the 49ers over $11 million in 2021, & over $9 million in 2022.
So all in all, I expect Nick Bosa to get a 5-year extension, worth $150 million, with $100 million of it guaranteed, and $70 million of it fully guaranteed.
Now there is a possibility that the 49ers don’t extend Bosa in 2022, or that Bosa decides to wait till 2023 to sign a new deal, some may say Bosa won’t play another down until he’s extended, but that’s not the case, as we saw Fred Warner reported for OTAs, which is as close to playing another down as you’re going to get, as he could easily get as hurt in OTAs as he would in an actual game.
As always, thank you for reading this, you can follow me on Twitter @49erscap, or leave a comment, and I’ll get back to you.
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